We hope everyone is doing okay during this crazy situation going around the world. Glad horse racing can be here to keep some things off our minds. Golden Gate raced without fans and only allowed licensed personnel only and appear to be doing so for the near future. We had a nice week last week with 4 top pick winners allowing our win percentage to trend up once more. As far as jockey and trainers go we were glad to see Abel Cedillo pay a visit to us Thursday and Friday winning 2 out of his 4 mounts. Juan Hernandez is 13 for his last 29 and I’m going out on a limb and saying he’s gonna win the jockey title. Trainer wise Manuel Badilla has had a nice hot streak going winning with 5 of his last 12. Trainer Jacqui Navarre has had success going 4 for 6 with a second and third. We have a 7 race program today. The Jackpot Pick 6 carryover is now at $262,496 and that pool is getting bigger and bigger each day. Here are my thoughts on this Thursday program as we hope to keep the trend going up.
85 race selections – 27 top pick winners (32%), 54 top pick in the money (64%)
Race 1: 5.5 Furlongs $8,000 Maiden Claiming 4 year olds & up (2-1-3)
2 Billtown Banner will be our top pick here. He is coming off a couple off the board finishes. He wasn’t beaten a lot as he was within two lengths of the winner last out. Trainer Manuel Badilla has had a nice hot streak going and will look to build onto that. Hoping he sits just off the pace in the top flight.
1 Clifton Hollow is cutting back from a route to a sprint. He should have the most stamina out of the group. He likes coming from out of it late. He has faced weaker company routing but I go back to his last sprint races and the runners in front of him have all come back to run well since. He could be sneaky.
3 Dare to Believe is a 22 time maiden making his first start off the year long break as a 7 year old. He was actually purchased for a high price of 160k by his owners as a yearling at Keeneland way back in 2014. Ran three times last year and finished second all three times. Sprinting for the first time in a while. Could be hoping to get a race underneath his belt for a longer run next out.
Horse to watch: 5 Siberian TIgah ships up North after two miserable tries down South. Blinkers come off in addition to the class relief. Hasn’t been competitive and will hope this group is much easier.
Race 2: 6 Furlongs $6,250 Claiming 4 year olds & up (4-3-6)
Appears to be a little bit of speed up front in this race.
4 Red Star is the top pick. I liked this horse last time out where he rallied his way into second. The angle here is second time against winners. He is very consistent finishing in the money and I like that Kevin Krigger stays aboard as it seems he’s handled this horse really well.
3 Ivorian is a price contender. The lightbulb angle is in effect as this runner broke the maiden last out for 8. The logical n2L condition is here for 6250. He has not run bad races prior to the maiden breaker in fact he hasn’t been out the exacta since coming up North. Could be a nice price under jockey Frank Alvarado.
6 Baby Frankie is a class dropper coming out of a 12.5 n2L race. His race three back at this level he just missed by a nose. Gets an extra half furlong and could be running late. Might have the class edge over the field.
Other to watch: 5 Bub actually broke his maiden over Ivorian but came back and ran an average race last out. Will test his stamina here with a 6 panel event. Could be coming on late.
Race 3: 1 Mile $6,250 Claiming 3 year olds (5-3-2)
5 Dirt Road Red appears to be the lock in this race. A son of Clubhouse Ride, he hasn’t missed the trifecta over this tapeta surface. He likes to sit a stalking trip and pounce around the turn. Hope he doesn’t sit too far out of it early.
3 Deepingreen has finished behind the top pick the last couple tries in a common event. He sat a stalking trip and didn’t do much in the stretch. I’m hoping he can overcome that last race and bounce back.
2 Praise Loudly is dropping in for his lowest claiming tag thus far. Two starts ago he was in the El Camino Real Derby. Today he’s for sale for 6250. Has actually ran well against starter allowance company and considering the low percentage barn this horse might float up from the 3/1 m/L come post time. But he must improve off his last race.
Race 4: 6 Furlongs $12,500 Claiming 4 year olds & up (5-6-2)
This is an interesting race as it appears the top two on the m/L (1&4) both could send and tire each other out.
5 Ride Into the Sky is the top pick. If the pace pans out the way I think he should benefit from the hot pace duel. He also gets another half furlong to rally into which should be beneficial for him. Good price as well at 8/1.
6 Dyf will be making his first start off a 2.5 month layoff. Last out he was running first off the claim and off the layoff. He ran into some very nice horses as the final time was 1:08 and 4. Those are some high caliber runners. Drops in for a level in which he can compete. Could close into the pace as well.
2 Maxinamillion is making his first start in 10 months. Off a layoff this runner probably will be coming late. He has routed most of his career and considering he’s a son of Animal Kingdom this might just be a stamina builder. Watch out late if anything and watch out next out.
Race 5: 6 Furlongs $20,000 Claiming F & M 4 & up (5-1-6)
Trying to beat the team of Juan Hernandez and Jonathan Wong here on the 4 Ailish’s Buttercup.
5 Rolinga is our top pick. She’s a consistent runner that sits off the pace and makes her move in the stretch. It’s a positive to see jockey William Antongeorgi iii retain the mount despite the barn change to Andy Mathis off the claim. Expect this horse to be flying late.
1 Papaya is a reclaim for trainer Ed Moger. This horse has a habit for running second. In fact she’s got 6 seconds in 7 tries over this tapeta. She’s knocking on the door and she could be coming on late as well today. She probably has the stamina to finish the best as she exits a route race.
6 Queen Helene is our price play for third at 8/1. She is a nice classy filly dropping in for her lowest ever claiming tag today. She has faced allowance company and has run well in the past. In fact she’s 2 for 3 at this sprinting distance. Kent Desormeaux will get aboard this filly today. She cuts back from a route to a sprint as well.
Other to consider: 2 Spanish Magic is an interesting runner. She won last out against starter allowance company and drops in today for 20. I think she will be forwardly placed but won’t be alone and that could be the negative. If she rates off the pace the lone leader might go wire to wire.
Race 6: 1 Mile $3,200 Claiming 4 year olds & up (3-1-6)
3 Turnaround is the top pick here. He takes a slight class drop into this level. He has showed speed in the past against tougher company. I think he takes the lead in a race where there’s not too much gusto. Hoping to hold off the come from behinders in the stretch.
1 My Man Draymond comes in off a stalk and pounce win last out. Kent Desormeaux retains the mount and should try to pass tired runners in the stretch. Could very well make it two wins in a row.
6 Legendary Night is a price to watch at 10/1. Last time he tried to sit off the pace and rally but didn’t do much. Today he takes a slight drop in class and should be closer to the speed. His last race is the lone time he’s missed the trifecta at this distance. Useable at a price.
Other to consider: 2 Mr. Papas cleared the n2L condition with an easy to gate to wire win last time. He was setting the pace in an ultra slow race. Don’t think that happens again and in fact will try to make up ground late.
Race 7: 6 Furlongs $6,250 Claiming F & M 4 & up (2-4-1)
2 Propeppy is another one of my favorite runners. She’s a consistent 7 year old mare. She has not been out the trifecta in at least her last 13 runs. She exits a tougher starter allowance race. Two back at this level she was a rallying second. She gets an extra half furlong to run at today.
4 Happy Issue is a 6 year old who hasn’t won since her 4 year old campaign. She has faced tougher competition in the past. She was claimed two back and drops a slight notch today. She could be sitting right off the leaders early.
1 Lacey’s Rainbow is looking for her third win in a row. She should be coming from off the pace today. She has been involved in wickedly close photos her last two runs and thus might bounce but could continue to win as she’s trending up.
Others to consider: 6 Sittin and Thinkin is a runner coming off a win last out. It was against slightly easier and she takes the step up today. She’s a big price that might run on to fill out the spots underneath. 3 No Spin Zone is making her first start off a 3.5 month layoff. She drops in class and gets the services of leading jockey Juan Hernandez so that is interesting to watch. She hasn’t won in her last ten tries.
Best Bet: Race 5 Rolinga 3/1
Price Plays:
Race 2 Ivorian 10/1
Race 4 Ride Into the Sky 8/1
It appears like a very good Thursday card and it doesn’t seem as chalky as it’s been the last couple weeks. Good betting card with price potentials today. Good luck today and stay healthy everybody!