Race 3.
Talk about your speed duels, there are 3 need-the-lead types in here who have all run sub 44.0 half miles and a fourth who has run 44.1. If the speed duel develops as expected, OMACHE KID will be the one to benefit, as he’s the only one in here who has the ability to close. After winning 3 in a row to begin the meet, OMACHE looked like he might be tailing off for his new barn. He was dropped to the bottom in his last race and returned to his winning ways while being re-claimed by the barn who had him for his first two wins here. Under normal circumstances it appears that OMACHE is a little too cheap and a little too slow to win this, but with the expected race shape, his running style could be the key to getting the win. OWNERS’ PRESTIGE was surprisingly rated off the pace as the even money favorite against better last time out. The results were not pretty and you should/would expect a return to his pedal-to-the-metal style as soon as the gates open this time around. If, somehow, he gets clear early, he’s probably the best horse in here, but topping these may be no easy task. Early this winter JAVU was a real speedball in Arizona, but, after being claimed in January, he seemed to lose his early foot for a while. Finally, in his last start, he reverted to his speedy ways and sped a 43.98 half before getting caught late. He probably can’t win without the early lead, but he doesn’t totally shut it down without it and should continue on to get part of it.
Selections 1-2-3
Race 4.
The complicating factor of this race is that the 4 horses figuring to get the most play are a combined 1 win in 29 starts in 2020. VICENTE’S SHADOW has gotten a small slice of the purse against tougher all season long. He dropped to a better level last out and fell one jump short of getting the win. He rallies from a ways back, so he needs an honest pace up front, but it looks like that could happen here. If you don’t mind betting favorites who are 1 for their last 19 starts, he’s the most likely winner. DECKLOAD has broken slow and rushed up in both his starts since being claimed, but he’s run two strong races, winning a sprint and running 2nd going a route of ground. Going through his form he looks like he breaks bad in about half his starts. Fortunately for him, he can run from on or off the lead in a race with one pure speed horse and several stalkers. He’s capable of winning here, with or without a clean start, but an alert beginning would sure help his chances. TUMAC MOUNTAIN is another who’s been been getting small pieces of better races this season. He’s been forcing fast paces in nearly all his starts this season, and from his outside post, expecting to see him in a comfortable spot just off the leaders in here. A contender, but his 1 for his last 24 record is tough to swallow.
Selections 3-2-6.
Race 5
Tough race to get a handle on, as everyone in here has had in-and-out performances in the top races this year. Any of these can win if they fire their best shot. DIAMONDS R had slow starts and troubled trips in both her sprints here. She ran poorly in her route stakes last month, but has had nearly 6 weeks to re-group and had a very sharp work earlier this month. Think she may be the best sprinter in here. DONTKISSNTELL finished just in front of DIAMOND in their two sprints earlier in the meet. She ran a good third in the last route stakes at the beginning of the month, but may actually be a better sprinter. She figures to settle a little off the two probable pacesetters early and should be dangerous down the lane. WINDY POINT doesn’t want to go long, but she always fires when she sprints. She’s traded decisions with the other speed horse in here, and if she (or the other speed horse) can shake clear early, she’ll give them all a battle to the wire. Selections 1-2-3
Race 6.
GOLDEN DELIGHT was claimed for $25,000 2 months ago and now is in for $8,000, never a positive sign. In her most recent start, it appeared that the rider wanted to settle just behind the speed, but ended up checking sharply on the backside and being forced to drop back to last. She has always been a speed-and-fade type, but surprisingly, she tried to rally and wasn’t beaten too badly by everyone but the runaway winner. Expecting the jockey to be in send mode this time around and if she gets the lead she won’t have a strong group of opponents trying to run her down. FULL SPEED AHEAD had been competitive with better all season long until her most recent. She fell out of it early and was never a factor, with no apparent excuse. Now she drops into a weaker group and gets the leading rider. She could be the biggest threat to the top pick with a return to her earlier form. SHES GOT THE POWER has been improving all year long. She won going long last out, but ran a good 3rd sprinting to a decent filly the time before that. She’s going to be a big price in here, but being one of the few in here coming off a decent effort, she may blow up the Pick 5 in the first leg. Selections 1-6-2
Race 7.
Races with a lightly raced group of 2 year olds can be tricky, but CAMDEN HIGH looks like a logical favorite. She’s fired in every race, except for the one race race blinker experiment. She can run from on or off the pace, which is always an advantage in this type of race. CAMDEN makes plenty of sense, but the rest of these are all capable. ZIPPIN SEVEN ran fast when she beat a solid group of boys in her second lifetime start. There’s generally plenty of speed in 2 year old races, and it remains to be seen how some of these girls will react to pressure. ZIPPIN deserves to be one of the favorites off her fast win, but this is probably a good race to go deep in. ZEYNEP beat a pretty live group in her debut and ran good against winners at GG. No one had a shot to beat the 1/9 favorite in her last race here, but despite being very wide on the turn and erratic down the lane she didn’t finish all that far behind CAMDEN. She gets blinkers for this and is coming off a fast work from the gate, presumably with the blinkers on. Another contender at a price.
Selections 3-2-1
Race 8.
Several very sharp contenders in here. ZANAB has always launched her run from the back of the pack, but suddenly in her last 2 races, she’s been right on top of the pace from the start. In her most recent she went by a quick leader around the turn and continued on to a comfortable win. That kind of improved early speed is a strong sign of a very sharp horse. There’s only 1 confirmed speed horse in here and ZANAB’s newfound early foot could have her in great position to pull off another win here. Speaking of sharp form, CONSTANT CRAVING has 3 wins and 5 seconds from her last 8 starts. Two back she got beat a neck by another contender in here after breaking slow. She was claimed from that effort, and right a way her new barn got a handy win from her going long. No reason she won’t continue to fire another strong effort and she’s definitely a big player here. CLASSIC LEAH is very competitive when she is able to get a clear lead and she looks like the only committed front end runner in here. The main contenders in here have stalking styles, and if they choose to leave LEAH alone early she may be able to pull off the upset.
Selections 3-2-5
Race 9.
The last time ROCKANDAHARDPLACE faced this type he was an easy 4 length winner. He’s faced much tougher in his last 2 and has solid second and third places finishes to show for it. There’s 2 or 3 speed types in here and his stalking style should have him in the right position to pounce when he’s ready. He hasn’t run in 6 weeks, which is a bit of a red flag, but if he’s at his best he’s the one to beat. If ROCK doesn’t bring his “A” game there are several strong contenders in here capable of pulling the upset. PISTOL POWER has won 2 in a row since being claimed by red hot trainer, Velasquez. PISTOL never runs a bad race and he just beat several of these in his last start. He’s the logical second choice, but his margin over the others isn’t so big that racing luck couldn’t allow them to turn the tables. REMEMBERTOBREATHE has been quite inconsistent this season, but he’s had legitimate excuses for several of his defeats. He ran fast when crushing easier in his latest, and at a big price, he one of many who could pull an upset in here. Selections 4-8-1
Race 10.
DON’TBESHYWILLIE has been in big speed duels in every race he’s been in this season. He shows 1 win and 1 second for the meet, but WILLIE has run much better than that record says. Today he gets a field with very little speed. If he gets away clean from the one hole he has a good chance to get the clear lead he’s been asking for all year. Big wire-to-wire shot in here, though suspect his price will be much lower than his morning line. Except for one race where he was overmatched, DREAMCATCHER has had a terrific Emerald meet. It’s even more amazing when you consider he’s 11 years old and was eased in his last two starts in Arizona before he came up here. He comes from a few lengths out of it, so he’ll need someone to keep WILLIE honest up front, but DREAM is the main contender in here. THIS GREAT NATION used to have great early foot, but he’s been hampered by slow breaks of late. He draws an advantageous outside post and with a better break he may be laying closest to WILLIE early. He’s coming off a route and if he’s close early, he may be the strongest late.
Selections 1-4-8