Friday’s 10 Race Card at Gulfstream Park seeks to start the memorial weekend of racing off right, as long as all the turf races are still on the turf by post. With three turf route races sprinkled throughout the card, I think we can build P3 tickets with value and find a couple of good horses to bet to win along the way. I won’t be talking about the P6 or P5 pools as I make most of my selections with the idea of playing only P3’s.
Race#1
1 Mile Turf Maiden Claiming $50,000 Fillies & Mares 3YO & UP (8-9-5)
The first race of the day should be exciting. 1 Mile on the Turf with some great competitors in the field. I think we have to beat the 3 GLORIOUSLY and 7 WICKED MERCURY to get a nice price on one of the three selections I like in this race.
8 GIVEITSOMEWELLIE is going to be my price pick. I love the turf pedigree this horse comes from and I like the second-time starter angle in this type of race where early speed is questionable. If we can stay near the morning line by post, we start the day off with a nice single.
9 SHE’S JUST QUALITY is the other second-time starter that I loved, but chose to key the 8 in hopes of getting a better price. This horse should definitely be included in horizontals, if she gets to the front she can seriously wire this race and tire her opponents by the final turn for home. I love Cristian Torres on these mounts with mid prices in a race where Irad Ortiz Jr. or Luis Saez could be favored. Torres will almost always get overlooked.
5 SUNNYMEDE DREAM is my long shot pick believe it or not. This horse has flashed some speed in the past, but I am a little weary that Hector Berrios is on this horse. He is one of the GP jockeys who always has a hard time closing a race down the stretch. His mount was begging for a left hand when he fall apart on Thursday in Race 4 on the 2 INTO FANCY. So take Berrios with caution, but when he does come home, it’s usually a nice priced horse like this one.
Let’s beat the 3 & 7 in this first race of the early P3 sequence and keep on picking up prices.
Race#2
5 Furlongs Turf Maiden Special Weight $65,000 2YO & UP (3-4-7)
Let’s beat the 12 GOLDEN PAL and milestone achievement jockey Edgar Prado, who surpassed Angel Cordero Jr. with win 7,058 in RACE 2 on the 2 FLYING ALETHA Thursday. Let’s try and catch a price as well.
3 FAMOUS GENT has the pedigree to go out and win convincingly in his first start. It was hard to narrow this race down to three picks, because there just seems to be prices all over the race, but its hard to miss the pedigree on this colt. With some decent works, I think he can make his first appearance a good one for his connections.
4 AMANZI YIMPILO(IRE) between the two Ward horses in this race this is the only one I like. I doubt this horse will stay near the ML when it goes to post, but I definitely feel like this race is a similar to what occurred Thursday in race 2, where two Ward’s were run in a race taken off the turf, except today Irad will be on the winner of Ward that comes home and not Prado. Hopefully like Prado, he can be on the better priced horse instead of the 2/5 that didn’t fire for Ortiz in Thursday’s second race of the day.
7 KODIAK MAMBA(IRE) It’s hard to look past how well Luis Saez does with young horses, especially when Mark Casse trains them. Despite not having great pedigree for a first-time starter, I think some good works and a good jockey can help this young colt vie for action against our top pick down the final stretch, and if you let Saez in the door down the lane, he won’t stop till he beats you to the wire.
Race#3
1 Mile Dirt Claiming 6250N3L Fillies & Mares 3YO & UP (5-6-4)
5 PAYNTER FEST as I was going about the card, I started to realize how much I liked Torres’ mounts today and this top pick in this race is no different. Her last start was such a dominant win that I can’t imagine she wont fire tomorrow and make things hard for the chalk monsters we will hope to beat. We will have to beat Jaramillo on the 2 BIMINI who looks like she’s been working well with a trainer who wins claimers at just over 20%.
6 LA TRES JOLIE is another horse who is coming off a win in her last start. She put together a nice finish on a sloppy day after dropping to this same level of competition. She will look to be competitive again with the help of her jockey and trainer who are winning at 33% together.
4 COUNTENANCE this horse had been at a couple of different tracks before it found success this past winter at Sam Houston, where she won 2 of 3 finishing in the money all three times. She seemed to work well in her first workout at GP, so I’m hoping she takes to the dirt well and we get a price home. She’s definitely a long shot, but let’s kill some tickets!
Race#4
1 1/16 Miles Turf Claiming $12,500 for 4YO & UP (7-3-4)
We have to beat the 11 and Luis Saez and we might need an Ortiz to do it.
7 GREAT KAHUNA has been in contention late in his last four starts and with a recent good workout, I think Leonel Reyes riding this horse for the second time on a firm track will help this gelding finally close down the stretch.
1 GRAND NENUCO I’m going to ignore some of the off track starts and focus on the last time this horse won. Coming off the layoff D’Angelo is hitting at a 33% clip. With some decent workouts as of late, let’s save some ground in this race and get this horse to perform how it did last summer.
12 MORNING STRIDE If we don’t find some magic in our top two picks, then sure enough it might have to come down to Ortiz and Saez again fighting for the best price out of the gate. Let’s hope if we need Irad, he stays above even money and uses that herding technique 😉 down the lane.
Race#5
6 Furlongs Dirt Maiden $25,000 for Maidens 3YO & UP (9-8-5) Deep 7
I’m hoping pedigree and a mixture of good trainer stats and workouts will help lead us to a nice price horse in this race . I think the 2 BOURBON STREET is our guy to take down to keep the prices flowing in our favor.
9 DR. SAMADI is my top pick and I don’t like it because of the ML price. I think this horse might lean towards even money by the time post arrives, but I’m hoping the FTS tag will push the money to the 2 horse. I love this horse the first time out and the trainer stat with FTS of over 25 percent would agree with me.
8 SUNDOWN KID Let’s go Team Maragh. I’m hoping the time off, mixed with some good pedigree stats, could give this horse the perfect trip needed to close down the stretch. With some improvement in each start. Today at the right price, SUNDOWN KID can come home like a freight train late.
5 TEN MILES HIGH I labored with this pick and the 7 UNION LANE who enters the race as a second-time starter. In the end I felt one more race with improving speed figures was enough to put this horse as my 3rd pick in this race, though if you can spare the dollars and structure, including the 7 horse isn’t a bad move at all.
Race#6
5 Furlongs Turf Maiden $40,000 for Maidens 3YO & UP (11-12-7)
This is a tough race. It’s one of those races where if you don’t bet the two potential chalk monsters you could look foolish for overthinking this quick sprint race. I personally think the 4 EXTREMELYEXCLUSIVE AND 6 JAXON’S GOLDIE will vie for the money and beat each other up for biggest chalk monster of the day. With that said, lets beat Saez and Ortiz and start this sequence or end it with some good value.
11 EL PILLO with a surface change could do something exciting to change the makeup of this race. Look for value close to the ML with this pick and let’s hope the surface change and trainer stats in these exact races (20%) can bring Zayas down the lane. If he uses his left hand, I don’t see Saez getting by him, of course one has to wonder with all the mounting evidence building, if Edgardo Zayas even has a left hand.
7 BAHAMIAN BEAT is dropping from a MSW into a MCL and while the drop isn’t huge, I think getting Jaramillo up again and a trainer stat when dropping from MSW to MCL of over 21% will work in the connections favor. Trying the turf for the first time with Jaramillo could produce exciting results.
10 COOL HAND COOP has shown improving speed figures at this distance. This could be the race she finally improves enough to find herself in the winner’s circle.
Race#7
7 Furlongs Dirt Claiming $20,000 for Fillies 3YO & UP (7-5-6)
I know this narrative of beating Ortiz and Saez has gotten old by now, but in order for us to get a price in this race we will need to do it again.
7 KIMURA is dropping class and with some improving speed figures in her last four races, I will throw out her last start and hope she regains form and finds her early speed abilities today.
6 LIFE ON THE EDGE is also entering this race with some class relief along with pretty admirable training stats that include a surface change stat at over 30%. Might not get ML value on this horse, but it will be a contender for sure.
5 BEASTS OF WILDWOOD is my longshot in this race. Good works and distance being dialed back can help this horse reach its true first call potential.
Race#8
5 Furlongs Turf Claiming $16,000NL3 for Fillies and Mares 3YO & UP (6-8-1)
Lets beat Jaramillo on the 5 SUGAR BOLT.
6 MS HEADLEY if you throw out her last race and focus on her last call, you can see she has the ability to close when in contention. With some class relief and distance relief, here’s hoping she hits the break and wires the field.
8 ALPILLES is back in form and looking to replicate her last start with another win at this distance with a bit of tougher competition this time around. She was so impressive last out that I think she can still excite and hopefully stay near her ML.
1 QUEEN FIELD speed, a bit of class relief and great closing jock means this horse could be stacked late and make a move with her speed to run past her foes for the first time in nearly a year.
Race#9
1 1/16 Miles Dirt OC $16,000N1X for 3YO & UP who have never won race besides maiden (2-4-8)
I’m looking for a closer in this and I think there are three horses that have early and late capabilities to make this route race produce some value.
2 NO GETTING OVER ME I’m aware a certain trainer’s numbers have shrunk since a certain date, but it’s hard to overlook this horse in this spot because aside from super feeder rumors, this horse looks like it actually belongs amongst this group of competition. I think a second time at 1 1/16 could help this horse get over the hump it needs to win it first race.
4 JAY’S WAY this horse has a lot of experience at this distance and has flashed some amazing early speed in the past. With some class relief the horse could go fast early and coming off the layoff this trainer strikes at over 25%.
8 FIRST AND THREE Torres has just missed with this horse at a mile and while it would seem like going longer wouldn’t be ideal based on past performances, I think the Hess barn can use the layoff stat of over 20% to give FIRST AND THREE the perfect trip it requires to win after acquiring the rest it may have needed.
Race#10
1 Mile Turf Claiming $12,500 for 3YO & UP (10-7-11)
In the finale I will continue at my attempt to make Irad Ortiz and his even money prices vanish. I think him and the 2 DILLON ROCKS are the obvious contender to win Friday’s finale, but I like another horse a lot more and a couple other horses that could help make our late P3 tickets comma-worthy.
10 STAR OF STARS Looks poised and ready after the layoff to strike in this spot. The works look good and Michael Maker always seem to do well after a decent layoff. I’m hoping this horse gets the perfect trip and draws away from the field when asked.
7 MAGICAL MIKE and with some late speed this horse could seek to close on Ortiz or Saez should they misfire in their pace assessment of this race early on. I think this price will stay near the ML and will be filled with value at the end for many horizontal payouts.
11 TIZ LUNA what is a card without a Meneses BOMB? And I’m hoping for that exactly in this race should this horse get home. I think if Meneses can track the pace and get to the front without having to expend too much of the horse early, then down the stretch maybe, just maybe, something magical can happen.
At any rate, this has been fun! I hope we hit some prices today and if Saez and Ortiz destroy the sequences, I told you SO!