Oaklawn Analysis, A’s B’s C’s, Selections & Bets for April 2nd
It seems like this is a good racing day as far as weather goes. So in this I am going to give out my bets what I would do in this race, as well as multi race wagers, must uses and top 3 selections with reasonings. Stick around at the end for a big announcement for me, and something for you to participate in!
Race 1 6Furlongs. MC 16000Purse $17,200 FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 Post Time: 2:05/( 1:05)/12:05/11:05
Selections:
5 Cider House 5-1 was off slow got beat by 11(2nd) 9(3rd) and 10(4th) beat the 4(6th) 8(7th). Made up about 7 lengths and was beat by 6 lengths after trailing by 13 lengths at one stage. Now being a 2nd time starter and beaten favorite might have learned a bit and show her real strength this time.
6 Kelly Be Krushin 9-2 might be one of the few horses to show speed after being fractious in the gate. Quit like she had two parachutes tied to the back of her, so they naturally drop in class for the 2nd time in a row, and they cut back in distance. Also, a huge thing is she catches a probable fast track for the first time in her career. All that companied with not the fastest horse in the race but what seems like the best speed horse in the race she could be dangerous.
9 Hale’s Angel 6-1 Chel-c Bailey gets back on and I think she has done fantastic so far this meet as an apprentice. I don’t like how this horse hesitated with her but Chel-c faught on with her and got a roaring 3rd place finish blowing by the likes of my top horse here. Couldn’t get to the top two but I do know she was bet lower than the 11 so that tells me that she should have caught the 11.
Selections 5-6-9
Must Use: 5,6,9 Next Up: 10,11 Deep Ticket: 4,8,12
Pick 4 5,6,9,11-1,8-3,5,7,8,9,12-6,10,11($72)
Bets: $2 win and $6 show 5($8)
Race 2 6Furlongs. Clm 50000Purse $38,000 FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 2, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since December 2, 2019 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000 Post Time: 2:35/( 1:35)/12:35/11:35
1 Symphony Hall 3-1 I don’t believe this horse is a lock her but I think is the horse to beat. The small drop back in class, was claimed for 50,000 by Diodoro 2 races ago from Michelle Lovell. And even though she is an 8% trainer, take it from someone who has seen her operation, she is one of the best trainers to her horses out there. She doesn’t always put the horse in the right condition to win but she treats her horses really well. This horse was beat twice by Misty Blue, a horse in the 8th race today and sometimes when you take out the monster you become the monster.
8 Gee She Sparkles 4-1 probably one of the most talented horses in the Danny Pish barn she broke her maiden for state bred Texas breds by 10 I guess they wanted to see how good she was. She was then taking to open stakes and she won that too! I love how Pish didn’t stretch her out next time either for like an Oaks thing, he knows she’s a sprinter. She was far back in her 3rd start so I throw it out, 4th start faced Taraz at Fair Grounds and again I throw it out. She should have won the Sam Houston race for allowance rallied 3 wide and 2nd best was the comment, tells me no excuses this time. I think he puts her in for 50,000 because he thinks she could win here or run a good 2nd and get a good purse and not get claimed. I do a series called claim of the day and she would be it and I would take her back to Lone Star and run her in Texas bred stakes races. Karl Broberg you listening??
6 Ancient Brown 7-2 the NY bred has been running in tougher conditions than most of these. Was at Belmont 15 days ago so my thought is the horse was fit and begging to run and then they cancelled and they sent the horse down. I wish she had a work across the track, but alas she did not.
Selections 1-8-6
Must Use: 1,8 Next Up: 6 Deep Tickets: 2,3
Pick 3 1,2,6,8-3,5,7,8,9,12-6,10,11($36)
Bets $1 exacta 1,8-1,2,3,6,8($8)
Race 3 1Mile. Clm 8000bPurse $17,500 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE APRIL 2, 2019. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 2, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $8,000 (Races Where Entered For $5,000 Or Less Not Considered In Eligibility And Allowances) Post Time: 3:05/( 2:05)/ 1:05/12:05
12 Not Orbinary 5-2 dropping way down in class for Norman McKnight I think is the key to getting this horse to win. There is only one major, major problem here, the post. I think this horse could have been a possible single if the horse was in like the 8. The 12 hole seems troublesome. The fact, she is the classiest horse in the race.
3 Elevententeetime 3-1 Steve Asmussen hate’s this horse. I know your sitting there thinking “but Dennis he won 2 in a row, how can Steve hate this horse??” Well he tried him at Turfway that was strike one, ran 6th. Came back at Oaklawn and put on the waiver because Steve wanted to see how bad this horse was, she won! Then he put the horse in a turf race at Sam Houston even though he raised up on the 25,000 claiming from 16,000 it was a huge drop in class. Won there now why is the horse going from 25,000 to 8,000 if Steve didn’t like it. He made his money back and now he wants out. I think the horse has a strong chance and is a must use just not a horse that I am confident in because her connections aren’t confident in her.
9 Kool Aid Girl 10-1 not the fastest horse but is coming in on a 3 race win streak and just got claimed. Those 3 wins were in state bred competition at Fair Grounds. If they go slow, I think that this horse can close well, the opposite of what normal closers would like. If you see her best race was when the half was up in 51 and change. A horse has to go twice as fast to close in normally and he is just the opposite.
Selections 12-3-9
Must Use: 3,9,12 Next Up: 5,7,8 Deep Ticket: 10
Pick 3 3,5,7,8,9,12-4,6,10,11-3,5,6,8,10($60) tough sequence but with this deep ticket it’s hitable.
Bets: $3 win and place 12($6)
Race 4 6Furlongs. Clm 10000Purse $18,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 2, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since January 2, 2020 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $10,000, if for $8,000, allowed 2 lbs Post Time: 3:35/( 2:35)/ 1:35/12:35
6 Staythirstymyamigo 3-1 of the claim for of my favorite “middle” trainers Geo Garcia. Was the heavy favorite last time in for 6,250, with the comment line “took over drove clear.” And for a horse rising up 2 notches in class with that comment line tells me she could do it.
11 Kalliste Rose 9-2 ummm well Tom Amoss 2nd after claim 41% out of 71 starters. Beaten favorite 29% with 239 stars in that category. 12,500 was just a little much for her and 10,00 could hit her right in the eyes with that perfect condition by Tom Was on a 3 race win streak before being claimed and had a troubled trip last time.
10 Sweet Tatum 8-1 Jason Barkley now puts her where she belongs after running her 2 times for 25,000 where she showed speed and didn’t fade she just got passed by better horses. I think she is a must include on the multi race wager in my opinion and could be the value play of the day.
Selections 6-11-10
Must Use: 6,10,11 Next Up: 4 Deep Tickets: 3
Pick 3 4,6,10,11-3,5,6,8,10-2,9($20)
Bets: $1 exacta 6,11-3,4,6,10,11($8)
Race 5 1 1/16th Mile. Clm 50000n2LPurse $35,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000, if for $45,000, allowed 2 lbs Post Time: 4:06/( 3:06)/ 2:06/ 1:06
3 Caribbean 6-1 Robertino Diodoro reclaimed this horse, when he got it the horse won by 11 lengths and was claimed for 20,000 so Diodoro got a different owner and reclaimed for 30,000 when the horse ran 3rd for Steve Asmussen. Now in for a lot more but Diodoro wouldn’t have claimed back if he didn’t think he could do this.
8 New Mexico 9-2 Speaking of Steve Asmussen he has this horse in for the first time in for a claiming tag. He had a lot of hope for this horse in the Texas/Okie circuit. Ran over his head the last 3 times but didn’t disgrace either.
5 Jay Vee Bee 7-2 he always runs his race and it’s always a decent showing. He doesn’t win often and seems to struggle by the last one. But with a tiny, tiny drop in class he might get over that.
Selections 3-8-5
Must Use: 3,5,8 Next Up: 6,10 Deep Tickets 7,11
Pick 3 3,5,6,8,10-2,9-1,2,3,5,7,9,11($35)
Bets: $3win $10 show 3($13)
Race 6 6Furlongs. Alw 61000n1xPurse $61,000 FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older,125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Other Than Maiden Or Claiming Since February 2, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs Post Time: 4:36/( 3:36)/ 2:36/ 1:36
2 Savedbyanangel 3-1 this horse seems to sit a perfect trip, not too far back but not on the lead. I don’t think Ricardo Santana fit with her so they put the 2nd best jockey up there on her in Joe Talamo. The thing I really like about her is she seems to always be in contention, and trying hard. Just that small little jockey change I hope makes a huge difference.
9 Jeri Bella 7-2 last two times after the claim for the Broberg barn and being put in for state bred, she closes like a freight train. Against open company she used to sit right on the lead and this is sometimes what Broberg is best at claim finding a condition and using a different piece of equipment. Well for her it’s not blinkers or bandages but could be a bit or works because I see last year she was working fast and now she is working medium pace. Whatever it is, it changed her running style for her to relax.
Must Use: 2,9 Next Up: 3,4,6 Deep Ticket
Pick 3 2,3,4,6,9-1,2,3,5,7,9,11-9,10,11,13($70) just like earlier this is a tough sequence!
Bets: $1 exacta 2,9-2,3,4,6,9($8)
Race 7 6Furlongs. Clm 20000Purse $25,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since January 2, 2020 Allowed 3 lbs. A Race Since November 2, 2019 Allowed 6 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000 (Races Where Entered For $16,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) Post Time: 5:06/( 4:06)/ 3:06/ 2:06
7 Rockshaw 7-2 2nd time in for a claiming race(not tag) for trainer Ron Moquett, and he did run in a claiming race last time but since that was his last time I guess that caused for the waiver. He ran 4th by a length so that is probably the right condition. Also being 2nd off the layoff should help this horse not hang this time.
11 Lewys Vaporizer 4-1 I remember when he used to be a buzz saw, especially against the rough conditions that he was in at Churchill last year. He is sooo speedy so I know they are going to try to make him last wire to wire. I am worried about the raise up in class but it’s almost like a quarter horse to me
mainly claiming is claiming because it’s just the gate break, same thing with him. He is going to break he is going to go fast and then whatever happens, happens.
2 Unmoored 5-1 Geo Garcia ships in from Turfway, I think he was getting ready for Indiana but instead we are at Oaklawn for a cheaper race. He ran in some of the toughest races at Turfway over the winter. Since the claim his finishes got worse but his speed figs have still been at least close. Also ran decent on the dirt before being claimed so has decent back form.
Selections 7-11-2
Must Use: 1,2,7,11 Next Up: 9 Deep Tickets: 3,5
Pick 3 1,2,3,5,7,9,11-9,10,11,13-3,8,9($42)
Bets $3 win and place 7($6)
Race 8 6Furlongs. OC 80000n1xPurse $61,000 FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $80,000. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 2, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since December 2, 2019 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $80,000 Post Time: 5:38/( 4:38)/ 3:38/ 2:38
11 Josie 7-2 Has never been off the board on the dirt, tried the turf last time for Brad Cox and broke slow but closed late. Seems like she was prepping for a race on closing week at Fair Grounds but that went away after the coronavirus, so Brad takes the fit horse and puts her here. Shipper 25%, 2nd off the layoff 29% and turf to dirt 28% makes her my top selection here!
10 Misty Blue 3-1 has re-found her speed after that mile race at Turfway and is in top shape coming into this race. Seems to me she isn’t as classy as the 11 but just might be a little more fit.
9 Jade d’Oro 9-2 seems like she is a late developer and Steve Asmussen waited to bring her up to the bigger stage, running her at tracks like Sam Houston and Delta Downs before finally running a race at Oaklawn where she didn’t disgrace herself, finishing 3rd behind the 13 who if in this race I would use.
Must Use: 9,10,11,13 Next Up: 7 Deep Ticket: 3,6
Double 9,10,11,13-3,8,9($12)
Bets $1exb 9,10,11,13($12)
Race 9 6Furlongs. Clm 40000Purse $33,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 2, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since January 2, 2020 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000, if for $35,000, allowed 2 lbs Post Time: 6:09/( 5:09)/ 4:09/ 3:09
8 Lawton 4-1 Karl Broberg sits at 26% off the claim. And with this horse winning 3 out of the last 4 before the claim. Only small worry I have is turf v dirt but it seems that he still runs his race on the dirt.
3 Pete’s Play Call 5-2 this is the horse to beat! The small drop in class from 50,000 to 40,000 could get this horse to win for Maker. Claimed him for 80,000 and won a stakes race with him and then hasn’t ran very good after that now he wants him claimed. And the best way to get a horse claimed is make the horse look like the best horse in the race it’s in and dropping small in class.
9 Flat Lucky 5-1 Ron Moquett 2nd off the claim is 50% with 4 starts…. HE DOESN’T CLAIM HORSES! So, for him to dip into this horse especially from a top barn like Diodoro he was confident he knew something to improve him like no one else did. Off the claim he improved 13 speed figures while raising up in class. This horse can improve even more 2nd off the claim for him.
Selections 8-3-9
Must Use 3,8,9 Next Up: Deep Tickets: 5,10
Bets $1 exacta box 3,8,9($6)
Bets total $75
Multi race total $347 on a card that is really tough with some decent horses that are horses I don’t want to get beat by. I hope to hit about 4 of these things or 2 really big ones.
*Big Announcement time* Okay so my birthday is Monday April the 6th. I can’t go out, I can’t party with anyone, and I have nothing to do. So, I thought today Win Place and Show Birthday Bash Contest with all of you! It cost nothing to get in, it’s for fun and bragging rights and gives you out there something fun to do! So, it’s for Oaklawn Park this Saturday April the 4th, since no one really handicaps Will Rogers haha! Hope you can join in, would love to have you. Just have your picks in at 1:30 EST time and 10:30 PST by either tagging me @dennis_trusty or dming me your picks! You should do two horses just in case one scratches, even at the gate. We did this for Turfway a few weeks ago and it was a blast I wanted people to get their mind off the world around them. Thank you! I hope you can do it and we could have fun as a twitter family!