Race 1
CELTURIAN actually raced in a N/W of 3 last out and now is back with N/W of 2 foes at a lower claiming price. After showing little in his first race back after being claimed over a year ago, he showed big improvement to finish a good 3rd. A drop back to a lower class level, the probability of further improvement in his 3rd start off the layoff and a versatile, close up running style in a race with a questionable pace scenario makes this guy the pick in a contentious dash. BRETT ran a very strong 2nd in his first start against winners. He broke several lengths slow, rushed up to get some position and continued on to be a clear 2nd in a race that was fast for the level. Other than a clunker in mid-July, BRETT has been a consistent sort and any effort similar to his last 3 races puts him in contention here. LIVE A GOOD LIFE didn’t show much last time after breaking slow against a much tougher group than these. He broke his maiden in a gallop and then ran a good second against a runaway winner after breaking slow and having traffic trouble on the backside. If the breaking slow doesn’t become a habit, his best could take it all in here.
Selections 4-2-5
Race 2
3 weeks ago PURE PURSUIT dueled through very fast fractions before drawing away in the lane against similar in a very strong effort. This time around, he finds a field that doesn’t appear to have anyone with enough speed to challenge him early on. As his 6 for 16 Emerald mark shows, when PURSUIT makes the lead, he’s very tough to catch. Another wire-to-wire victory looks likely here. GUARDINGTHEMONEY tired after a fast 1/2 mile going a route last time out. He’s had much more success sprinting in his career and the cutback in distance should have him set up for a strong effort here. MONEY has had the misfortune of drawing the one hole in each of his last 3 sprints and it has cost him position every time. With a clean break, he can at least keep PURSUIT in his sights early. Running him down could be another story. SMOOTHEE LEE also is cutting back from a route in here. He ran a strong 2nd in his first start since being claimed back by the Lucarelli barn. Expecting another big effort in here, but he’ll have a lot of ground to make up down the lane to get a win.
Selections 2-5-3
Race 3.
OLD SCHOOL IKE is 2 different animals. In his recent form, he has made the early lead 6 times and has 3 wins and 2 seconds to show for it. In the 4 races he didn’t make the lead, he’s been beaten double digits every time. Last out, for some reason, his jock didn’t try for the lead, with predictable results. This time he goes back to Matias, who’s had him on a daylight lead both times he’s ridden him. He’s in with the softest group he’s ever seen and looks like he is the quickest early. Wire-to-wire time. LOLLY EXPRESS only route race locally is better than it looks. Against a much tougher group than these, he was forced to race impossibly wide on the final turn on a day when you wanted to be inside. He actually did close a little ground, but he had a difficult task all around. He’s in with a much easier group here, and in a 6 horse field he should have a better chance avoiding an extremely wide trip. If the speed backs up, he’ll be waiting. BERNIE has been hampered by wide trips and/or slow breaks and/or traffic troubles all season long. He’s got good tactical speed, and if he isn’t challenging for the lead, he won’t be far off it. BERNIE is a consistent sort, but tends to settle for minor awards more often than not. May need a perfectly timed ride to get to the winners circle
Selections 4-7-2
Race 4
There is no real speed to be seen in here and a slow first half mile seems almost guaranteed. That should make life tough for several of the deep closers in here. JOHNNY FIVE had good success on the front end when he routed last year. He hasn’t shown much speed sprinting this year, but he sat reasonably close to a fast pace in his only route try. He’s got an aggressive jock up, and maybe he’s the one to try to grab a slow, easy lead. As good as anyone here. DOUBLE A PROSPECT laid a couple lengths off a good pace 2 races back, then was checked going into the first turn to lose his position in his last. He really has very little speed, but he still has more than most of this field. He tends to lack a punch at crunch time, which explains only 3 wins and 13 minor placings. Expect to see him close up early. GRAN FIESTA is a slow breaker, which doesn’t help him here, but he tends to move into contention on the backside which could be crucial to his chances. His 2 route races here have been credible, and he’s a threat in here, especially if he unexpectedly breaks on time
Selections 4-5-3
Race 5
NO HARBOR IN SIGHT drops into a likely spot with these. He just ran 2nd behind the likely favorite in today’s 2nd race and raced wide on a rail favoring day to boot. He’s got good speed, but there are 2-3 others in here who figure to be looking for the lead, so settling just off the lead may be the way to go. The big drop in class is a little bothersome, but Lucarelli runs to win, so maybe that’s the simple explanation. The horse to beat. MISO FAST was a few lengths behind HARBOR in his latest, but he didn’t break well and was taken out of his regular, close up style. He’s been very wide in all his starts this season and maybe breaking from the 2 hole could help him save some ground. Good chance to upset. GRAYCASTER woke up up in his last. He chased the favorite, who was winning his second in a row, the whole way around in a fast race for the level. He was claimed for $25,000 back in February 2019, and was sidelined for 15 months not long after. Obviously there are issues, but he drew outside the other speed horses and has the right style to take advantage. A repeat of his last run makes him dangerous in here.
Selections 4-2-5