| Race 1.CELTURIAN actually raced in a N/W of 3 last out and now is back with N/W of 2 foes at a lower claiming price. After showing little in his first race back after being claimed over a year ago, he showed big improvement to finish a good 3rd. A drop back to a lower class level, the probability of further improvement in his 3rd start off the layoff and a versatile, close up running style in a race with a questionable pace scenario makes this guy the pick in a contentious dash. BRETT ran a very strong 2nd in his first start against winners. He broke several lengths slow, rushed up to get some position and continued on to be a clear 2nd in a race that was fast for the level. Other than a clunker in mid-July, BRETT has been a consistent sort and any effort similar to his last 3 races puts him in contention here. LIVE A GOOD LIFE didn’t show much last time after breaking slow against a much tougher group than these. He broke his maiden in a gallop and then ran a good second against a runaway winner after breaking slow and having traffic trouble on the backside. If the breaking slow doesn’t become a habit, his best could take it all in here. Selections 4-2-5 Race 2. 3 weeks ago PURE PURSUIT dueled through very fast fractions before drawing away in the lane against similar in a very strong effort. This time around, he finds a field that doesn’t appear to have anyone with enough speed to challenge him early on. As his 6 for 16 Emerald mark shows, when PURSUIT makes the lead, he’s very tough to catch. Another wire-to-wire victory looks likely here. GUARDINGTHEMONEY tired after a fast 1/2 mile going a route last time out. He’s had much more success sprinting in his career and the cutback in distance should have him set up for a strong effort here. MONEY has had the misfortune of drawing the one hole in each of his last 3 sprints and it has cost him position every time. With a clean break, he can at least keep PURSUIT in his sights early. Running him down could be another story. SMOOTHEE LEE also is cutting back from a route in here. He ran a strong 2nd in his first start since being claimed back by the Lucarelli barn. Expecting another big effort in here, but he’ll have a lot of ground to make up down the lane to get a win. Selections 2-5-3 Race 3. OLD SCHOOL IKE is 2 different animals. In his recent form, he has made the early lead 6 times and has 3 wins and 2 seconds to show for it. In the 4 races he didn’t make the lead, he’s been beaten double digits every time. Last out, for some reason, his jock didn’t try for the lead, with predictable results. This time he goes back to Matias, who’s had him on a daylight lead both times he’s ridden him. He’s in with the softest group he’s ever seen and looks like he is the quickest early. Wire-to-wire time. LOLLY EXPRESS only route race locally is better than it looks. Against a much tougher group than these, he was forced to race impossibly wide on the final turn on a day when you wanted to be inside. He actually did close a little ground, but he had a difficult task all around. He’s in with a much easier group here, and in a 6 horse field he should have a better chance avoiding an extremely wide trip. If the speed backs up, he’ll be waiting. BERNIE has been hampered by wide trips and/or slow breaks and/or traffic troubles all season long. He’s got good tactical speed, and if he isn’t challenging for the lead, he won’t be far off it. BERNIE is a consistent sort, but tends to settle for minor awards more often than not. May need a perfectly timed ride to get to the winners circle. Selections 4-7-2 Race 4. There is no real speed to be seen in here and a slow first half mile seems almost guaranteed. That should make life tough for several of the deep closers in here. JOHNNY FIVE had good success on the front end when he routed last year. He hasn’t shown much speed sprinting this year, but he sat reasonably close to a fast pace in his only route try. He’s got an aggressive jock up, and maybe he’s the one to try to grab a slow, easy lead. As good as anyone here. DOUBLE A PROSPECT laid a couple lengths off a good pace 2 races back, then was checked going into the first turn to lose his position in his last. He really has very little speed, but he still has more than most of this field. He tends to lack a punch at crunch time, which explains only 3 wins and 13 minor placings. Expect to see him close up early. GRAN FIESTA is a slow breaker, which doesn’t help him here, but he tends to move into contention on the backside which could be crucial to his chances. His 2 route races here have been credible, and he’s a threat in here, especially if he unexpectedly breaks on time. Selections 4-5-3 Race 5. NO HARBOR IN SIGHT drops into a likely spot with these. He just ran 2nd behind the likely favorite in today’s 2nd race and raced wide on a rail favoring day to boot. He’s got good speed, but there are 2-3 others in here who figure to be looking for the lead, so settling just off the lead may be the way to go. The big drop in class is a little bothersome, but Lucarelli runs to win, so maybe that’s the simple explanation. The horse to beat. MISO FAST was a few lengths behind HARBOR in his latest, but he didn’t break well and was taken out of his regular, close up style. He’s been very wide in all his starts this season and maybe breaking from the 2 hole could help him save some ground. Good chance to upset. GRAYCASTER woke up up in his last. He chased the favorite, who was winning his second in a row, the whole way around in a fast race for the level. He was claimed for $25,000 back in February 2019, and was sidelined for 15 months not long after. Obviously there are issues, but he drew outside the other speed horses and has the right style to take advantage. A repeat of his last run makes him dangerous in here. Selections 4-2-5  Race 6. UNLIMITEDDATAPLAN ran a good 2nd when she was dropped to this level two races back. She dueled with the favorite through fast fractions and held on gamely down the lane. The filly who finished just behind her came back to run 3rd against better, then beat the boys last week. Against much tougher 2 weeks ago, DATA didn’t break well, couldn’t show her usual speed and raced evenly on the outside part of the track. While it’s not easy to be sure of who has speed in a field of lightly raced 2 yr olds, on paper, DATA looks clearly the quickest. Good chance for a front running win. KERRALIA ran a very good 2nd against cheaper in her debut. She was a little off the leaders early while racing wide and fell just short of getting to the winner. This isn’t the strongest looking group for this level, KERRALIA figures to improve in her 2nd start. Would be no surprise. GABBA GABBA HAY is in a good spot for a first time starter to get it all. She shows two quick works of late and trainer Essex usually surprises with one of these every season. There are no world beaters in here. If she has any ability at all, she could upset these. Selections 4-3-7 Race 7 Steve Bullock looks to have the clear top 2 contenders in here. Which of them wins? YOU GO GIRL took 10 starts to finally break her maiden, but she’d been chasing the top fillies in her age bracket along the way. Getting away from them, she was an easy winner in a fast time last month. There are several in here who want the lead, and GIRL’s stalking ability is a big plus here. Wins the “battle of the barn”. KNOWN VALUE is the other Bullock trainee. She beat a mediocre maiden group with ease in her seasonal debut, then ran a strong 2nd at this level in her next start. She has 2 speed types to her outside, but they’ve been running with much easier, and they can’t match the early fractions that VALUE ran in her last. Most likely of these to beat the too choice. It looks like a big drop off after the top 2. FRIENDSWITHBOURBON didn’t run particularly fast to break her maiden last time, but she didn’t really need to. She ran a good 2nd against a faster group in February at Turf Paradise and then was sidelined until her maiden win. There’s reason to believe there could be more in the tank, but she’ll need plenty more to win this dash. Selections 3-4-5 Race 8. Everyone in this group has good enough credentials to win here, so why take the 8/5 favorite? FIERY CAUSE dropped all the way to the bottom and won easily last time out. She won on the front end, but there is big speed in here and from an outside post, expect to see her go back to her usual stalking style. CAUSE has been primarily a router during her career, but her 2 sprints here have been really good. She’s beaten better in the past and that confidence building win last month may push her back up the class level. TOMORROW’S MINE didn’t fire in her last, but her two local races before that were good. She raced far wide on a rail favoring day, so maybe an explanation is as easy as that. She’s had 5 weeks to regroup and had a fast 1/2 mile work recently. Her stalking style fits well in here. Bounce back performance could get her a victory. STRATUS BIRD ran off the screen in a galloping win last month. On the positive side, she ran fast and the improvement came in her first start after being claimed by Jorge Rosales. But, if you want to try to beat her, remember, she got an easy lead on a speed favoring track going a mile. Today, she faces a mare inside of her who is never topped early and doesn’t give up when’s she’s headed. An easy lead will not be easy for STRATUS this time. It’s seems as though something has to give up front. STRATUS is going to be a short price. Certainly won’t be a surprise if she wins again, but thinking it may be worth it to try to beat her. Selections 5-6-4 Race 9. DUTTON couldn’t have been any more impressive when he broke his maiden by many in a stakes race in his first lifetime start. He ran an amazingly fast 1/2 for a 2 year and then kept on widening. It doesn’t look like there is anyone in here to keep him from a repeat performance. Sometimes you can make a valid case to try to beat a short priced favorite. Not thinking this is one of those times. There was nothing particularly exciting about ZEYNEP’s debut here, but she ran a much better race in her 2nd start when he shipped to Golden Gate. Most importantly, she showed the ability to close ground. Considering how fast the early part of this race figures to be, the horses trying to chase DUTTON may be out of air by the top of the lane and be easy targets for a closing rally. David Martinez has 3 horses in here that were all ridden by Matias in their maiden breaker and this is where he lands. Good chance for a part. JOHN’S ON POINT was an impressive debut winner and was the favorite in the stakes that DUTTON romped in. JOHN didn’t break too sharp, rushed up to chase DUTTON, but was done by the 1/4 pole. That race was too bad to be true. He’s listed as a first time gelding and adds blinkers. It’s possible he bothers DUTTON for a little while, but what will it cost him in the end? Selections 7-8-5 Race 10. DROPYOURBUFFS ran a couple bad ones to start the season, but he was very unlucky to lose last time when dropped to this level. He broke several lengths slow and then steadied going into the turn. The horse who beat him that day ran a good second in his next out and will be one of the favorites in today’s first race. BUFFS has good speed and should be with leaders early. Be aware that BUFFS has shown a tendency to settle for minor awards in his seven race career. He’s the pick, but you’re going to be glad you used more than just him in here, if you’re still alive in the Pick 5. STANLEY’S WAVE drops to the bottom for this race. He’s shown good speed in several of his starts, but so far not a lot in the way of a finish. Dropping in class tends to make a horses speed carry further, especially if STANLEY manages to get a clear, early lead from this outside post. PREMIER LEAGUE has done nothing but run a route in his career. He’s laid reasonably close in most of those races, which makes it seem that sprinting isn’t an impossible task. If somehow the top 2 decide to battle early, PREMIER may find he has a strong closing kick coming off all the route races. Trainer Rosales has had good results up here with the horses he gets from this Golden Gate barn, and this guy could add to that success. Selections 8-9-4 |