Churchill Downs Saturday November 16, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves the brothers Grimm, brothers in arms, The Brothers Karamazov, and the Avett Brothers. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various horse tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:00 post – Claiming 20000n2L 6 1/2 F 3YO&Up F&M
2-6-4-1
I suppose you can measure them all against #2 Ginny B. She was claimed by Steve Asmussen on 9/29/19 and is making her first appearance for this barn with Ricardo Santana Jr. up in the irons. Any improvement makes her the likeliest winner even though #6 Shackleford County was made the ML favorite. This Dale Romans’ runner could win, but I’ll play against her because of her Churchill Downs running lines. These two will be tough to beat in today’s opener, but #4 Adheretome could surprise us. This Ruis Stable filly was improving back at Ellis Park before throwing in a clunker last time out here at Churchill Downs. Her 11/5/19 workout is a pretty good indication that she has some run in her.
Race Two: 1:30 post – OC 100000n2x 1 1/16 Mile 3YO Fillies
3-2-6-5
#6 Proud Emma looks to be the best of these on paper as she was running against graded stakes company earlier in the year. She is making her second start since taking off four months for trainer Peter Miller and could very well be the best filly in the race. You need to cover her in your horizontals, but there is value to be found elsewhere. #2 Shacklette didn’t like the slop in her last race on Halloween, but she was running plenty good enough for Dale Romans before that misfire. #3 Nikki Beach appears to like Churchill Downs and she beat a decent allowance field here on 9/22/19. She deserved better in her last outing at Keeneland and is plenty capable of being the controlling speed today. She’s chalky, but also the most likely winner.
Race Three: 2:00 post – Claiming 25000 1 Mile 3YO&Up
4-3-1-7
If #1 Matrooh runs back to his 10/30/19 race here at Churchill Downs there will be no catching him, but I am going to play against this 9YO running back-to-back crackers. His off-track record is pretty good, and he won on a muddy track 17 days ago for his only Churchill win in five career starts. #4 Conquest Big E has four graded stakes in his running lines, but he has been off form recently. Trainer Eddie Kenneally has him entered for the second start in his barn since a 2/3/19 claim at Gulfstream Park and he could improve quite a bit today, and he is 3/4 ITM at this track M and M Racing loves to play the claiming game and they don’t make too many mistakes, but #5 Conqueror has whiffed three times in this barn. They are finally dropping him below his original claiming price to a more realistic spot and needed class relief. #3 Rocko’s Wheel ships in from the left coast for trainer Phil D’Amato and is dropping in class against these bluegrass runners. He’s plenty good enough to win and he attracts the services of Ricardo Santana Jr., so he certainly figures. His two Churchill Downs workouts show that he made the trip from California in good shape. Peter Miller could “shock” us all with newly acquired #7 Hardly a Secret, but the choice of pilot is a bit too curious for me.
Race Four: 2:30 post – MSW 95K 5 1/2 F Turf 2YO Fillies
12-3-8-13
Twelve of the seventeen entered baby girls will actually run in this turf sprint, and the best filly #14 Flatoya will likely miss the race, but we should play her if she does. #12 Kona Kai almost got it done in her debut on 9/1/19 in a turf sprint at the Pea Patch for trainer Blair Jordan. This daughter of Palace Malice struggled a bit when asked to route in her last race, but she is likely good enough to win today if her post isn’t too daunting. #3 Maga Suite hasn’t tried the sod in her brief career, but, as a daughter of Palace Malice, she should take to the grass. She is trending in the right direction and her string of workouts suggests she has enough talent to win if she likes the lawn. #8 U S S Lexington is a well-bred $195K KEESEP 2018 purchase that should also like the green. Larry Jones wins at 17% with his FTS and 13% first on the turf. Her workouts might be a touch slow, but she should have a chance if the #12 gets a bad trip or is a fraud. Joe Sharp’s #13 Tapalong drew into the field after the early scratch of the #7 and she has a respectable string of prep works for her debut. Sharp hits at 11% with his FTS so she has a chance, but the wide post will be difficult to overcome.
Race Five: 3:03 post – OC 100000n2x 6 F 3YO
3-1-5-6
Billy Mott’s #3 Mucho certainly the classiest colt in this field as he lost the GI Hopeful to Mind Control as a 2YO on 9/13/18. He has cashed a few checks since that narrow loss but hasn’t really pulled it all together as a 3YO. He is dangerous, but he can be beat by these. The Larry Rivelli entry of #1 Big Drink of Water and #1A Get Hammered would have been made the post-time favorite, but the scratch of the #1 waters down the value. Get Hammered can still win this optional claimer as he should be a little tighter today than he was on 10/20/19. #5 Twelfth Labour is another horse that has lost to Mind Control in his career, and he recently ran in the GI Jerkens at Saratoga on 8/24/19. He was closing in on Get Hammered and Mucho at Keeneland in his last race before he ran out of stretch.
Race Six: 3:36 post – Cliaming 30000b 6 1/2 F 3YO&Up F&M
8-5-9-2
#9 Quick Quick Quick was made a rather lukewarm ML favorite at 7/2, but she can be beat. She figures as a logical contender, but her Churchill Downs record isn’t exactly inspiring. Trainer Mike Trombetta has been running #5 Enjay’s Brass on the all-weather and turf recently, but she is making her second consecutive start on the main track. She’ll need to improve a bit off her last race to win today, but that’s certainly possible. I wouldn’t ignore her. #8 Love My Honey has had a weird career. She won at first asking at Saratoga last year, returned as one of the post time favorites in the GII Pochontas here at Churchill Downs and fired a complete dud, struggled for year after that, and then demolished a decent Belmont field of claimers when she changed tactics and won on the engine. Her 10/6/19 workout at Keeneland was nothing short of spectacular and I expect her to take them wire-to-wire today.
Race Seven: 4:06 post – MSW 95K 1 Mile Turf 3YO&Up F&M
4-5-9-10
There is a late Pick Five carryover of $85K starting with this race, and the racing secretary didn’t exactly make it easy by carding a MSW with eighteen entries in the lead-off leg. Jose Ortiz is in town to ride Admission Office later in the card in the River City, but he picks up his only other mount of the day on #4 Lady Rosalie. She picked up her first check in her last race on 9/9/19 at Belmont and she figures today as well. Her 11/10/19 workout begs questioning, but trainer Rodolphe Brissett might be plating a little cat and mouse. #5 Sugar Love has been a bit of a money burner in her career, but she is trying the turf for the first time today. As a daughter of Candy Ride, I am a bit surprised that Watts Humphrey and George Arnold haven’t tried her on the sod yet, so I am a bit dubious of today’s effort. If she relishes the turf, she can win, but I am against an epiphany in her ninth start. #9 Keepthe Main Thing gave the field a dozen lengths in her first start on 10/10/19 at Keeneland when she missed the break and was compromised in the gate. She received almost no support as a 33/1 FTS that day, but she never gave up and made up eight of those lengths against the two best that day. #10 Temple City Terror was one of those two, losing by a nose in that race. She has been close in most of her nine career starts but has yet to get it done. Several of her races have been good enough to win a maiden turf route, but she hasn’t exactly shown the killer instinct. I can’t find any early pace in this race, so Lady Rosalie might just get away with murder today based on her last effort, but this is definitely a spread race to kick off the Pick Five.
Race Eight: 4:36 post – MSW 95K 6 1/2 F 2YO
entry-7-11-4
If you aren’t a believer in #7 Mr. Monomoy, you’ll need to spread again in the second leg. Mr. Monomoy missed the break in his Keeneland debut on 1/19/19 and fell twelve lengths behind the leader only to close like freight train down the lane. In my opinion, he was the best horse in that race and is easily the most likely winner today. The West Point Thoroughbred entry of the FTS #1 Fulfill and #1A Cavalry Charge are capable of a mild surprise, especially the Dallas Stewart runner. If Fulfill was the goods, Ricardo Santana Jr. would be aboard him for trainer Steve Asmussen, but he chose the other Asmussen in FTS #11 Urbanite. He will have to run a big race from the far outside to win, but I wouldn’t be completely surprised. Most of the money should land on Mr. Monomoy, so I will press the entry.
Race Nine: 5:06 post – Allowance 97000n1x 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
9-1-2-4
#1 Getridofwhatailesu has basically done no wrong in her first two career startsfor trainer Brad Cox but making her the ML favorite might be a little much. I am not a huge fan of playing maiden winners in their first race against winners, but she has every right to win today with even a touch of improvement since her 10/12/19 win. The problem with playing against the favorite in this race is that the other most likely winners won’t offer much value. I will fade the 3/1 ML #2 Cardamon as she looks to be a notch below the #1 and even took a step backwards in her first race against winners. #9 Hallawallah is headed in the other direction and improving since her ambitious start in the Indiana Oaks on 7/13/19. She has faced a lot of next-out winners in her running lines and she looks to be the only early speed in this race.She is a tempting single, but I may cover the #1 as well.
Race Ten: 5:36 post – River City GIII 1 1/8 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
9-7-4-6
As I previously mentioned in this analysis, Jose Ortiz flies into Louisville to take the mount on #9 Admission Office even though he finished eleventh on him in the Shadwell Mile on 10/5/19 at Keeneland. Ortiz piloted him early in his career for Chad Brown before h moved to the Brian Lynch barn this past Spring. After winning a debut allowance race for the Lynch barn, he has been close in three straight graded stakes he looks to be the class of the field. Brad Cox’s #4 Mr. Misunderstood has been a bit inconsistent in 2019, but he did run a solid second to #6 Space Mountain in the Remington Green on 9/29/19. Space Mountain returned to the track on 10/17/19 to run a dull eighth in the Sycamore at Keeneland, but he has won three starts here at Churchill Downs. Both of these horses could threaten Admission Office, but the horse that offers the most value is #7 Bemma’s Boy. Except for a bad start on 9/21/19, he has run three terrific races for Mike Maker since being claimed away from the Bentley Combs barn on 5/30/19. Maker has returned him to the turf for all four of his starts in his barn, albeit against weaker competition than he will face today. He deserves a shot against graded company and is not without a nice chance today.
Race Eleven: 6:06 post – MSW $56K 7 F 2YO Fillies
6-2-3-4
The racing secretary didn’t do us any favors by carding a baby race in the Pick Five finale. #2 Bibiana ran a nice second to a next-out winner in her debut and a repeat of that effort has her in the mix again today. Tyler Gaffalione rode her in that Gulfstream park debut, but Churchill Downs leading rider gets the nod today. I have to wonder if Gaffalione jumped off of her for the FTS #6 Swiss Skydiver as Lanerie has only ridden for trainer David Fawkes twice in the past two months. Swiss Skydiver’s morning workouts look like a horse well-intentioned, but Kenny McPeek only hits at 5% with his FTS. That 11/7/19 workout indicates this one may be the exception and not the rule. 2YOs can easily improve in short notice, and, if so, #3 Super Legs, #4 Saxony, and #7 Wellington Wonder all figure.