Race 1– 1st #1 Tipazar is stretching out for the first time with blinkers on. Last out she only lost by one and a half at Keeneland and it was a good race, so let’s see what she can do here. Ron Moquett trains, Santana Jr riding.
2nd #6 Believe in Me improved last out and this is her second time routing. Her dam I Believe in You won a grade 1 at two and then retired shortly after the win, and Bodemeister was the #1 second-crop stallion last year, so she has the breeding to run well, but needs a little more experience.
3rd #5 Pretty At War definitely has the best breeding here- Plum Pretty won the Kentucky Oaks and War Front is among the best of the best. Her races haven’t been great, but she had ten months in between races, so I think she’s going to need a couple races to get going.
Race 2– 1st #7 Love On Tides has two races at Churchill and has won both of them. Last out she didn’t run well, but maybe it just wasn’t her day. I think she was a wise claim for Michelle Lovell who has done well with this filly, she has made $70,630 this year.
2nd #1 Miss Artie has seven second place finishes, so we know she can do it again, but she is yet to race at Churchill. She’s ran well in a stakes race two back, but my only concern is that she is winless in over fourteen months.
3rd #5 Now Power has been in tough company this past summer and fall, now gets a little bit of class relief, last out she didn’t run well but it was a pretty solid allowance race at Keeneland, and I think she looks a lot better here.
Race 3– 1st #2 Restless Rambler has an impressive race record. 31 starts, 14 wins, 5 seconds, and 4 thirds. Really good Beyer numbers in the past too. Just a good solid gelding who likes his job, three for three on the Churchill surface.
2nd #1 Mutajaded just ran bad last out, but again, every horse has their days. Now slightly drops in class, hoping he can come back to his winning ways. Decent racing record of 8 starts, 3 wins, 2 seconds.
3rd #7 Forze Mau (VEN) has been popular in the claiming box this year and is steadily improving with his Beyer numbers, but I think the $16,000 level was more for him but I’ll take a chance with him and Hartman has been having luck this meet.
Race 4– 1st #1 Flat Out Beautiful is a first time starter for Al Stall Jr, who just fired a bullet workout. Stall is 43% right now which is impressive.
2nd #7 Musical Man also just worked a bullet but not with as many horses. I don’t think he liked the turf and Kentucky Downs is a hard place to break a maiden. Mike Maker trains, Tyler Gaffalione rides.
3rd #3 Ourbestfriend DL has the most experience in the field, but hasn’t had much luck. He’s been in some tougher spots at Keeneland so hopefully running for a tag for the first time will help him.
Race 5– 1st #2 Shobiz Star seems like the best horse in this race, last out was not good at all. Now we have a jockey’s change and a bit of a class drop, he has won twice at Churchill, so he is set up for success.
2nd #3 Jerrid strikes me as a red flag. I’m taking him for second because of the trainer/jockey change, and the class drop. The layoff and class drop is what makes me concerned, but now he has had an out, he will be more fit.
3rd #7 Allidoisdreamofyou is well suited on this level, and jockey Alex Canchari has won his two races here he’s rode in this meet. Only thing I don’t like is how inconsistent this horse can be.
Race 6– 1st #11 Vandelay has five second places, and only one win, but maybe here he can pick up another win. He has solid connections to back him up and a little bit of class relief.
2nd #8 Big Al is trying the dirt for the first time, didn’t seem to like the synthetic surface at Arlington. Chris Landeros is the jockey, and he is having a great meet.
3rd #3 Neverquitdreaming is a big question mark after his last race. I am assuming he is okay physically since he is coming back so soon. A bit of a class drop and his first start at Churchill.
Race 7– 1st #3 Rahway has been in some tough spots and just ran a respectable third place at Keeneland. The nice think about this filly is she can run turf or dirt, and Bridgmohan gets back aboard, he’s won on her before, she’s in good shape.
2nd #7 Cured By Kitten is the most lightest raced of the bunch, and her last race was good, but I think she needs a couple more races to be able to win at this level.
3rd #1 Haniel is very lightly raced, and yet to find the winner’s circle since her lengthy layoff. She has been running against some very nice fillies at Keeneland and Kentucky Downs and ran well against them.
Race 8– 1st #4 Riesling I took last out at Keeneland for third and she didn’t disappoint. Today is her chance to break her maiden, she’s been getting better according to her last two races so let’s take a chance with her.
2nd #8 Flat Awesome Jenny ran 4th in her only race, beaten by seven. She faces Riesling again here, and the horse that won that day, Castle Ridge has come back to win another race since then.
3rd #3 Summer Storm’s connections are having a good meet so far. Four races and three third place finishes but we have to toss out her start from two back when she lost the jockey.
Race 9-1st #3 Mister Maestro just crushed last out at Keeneland and earned the 91 Beyer which is to be taken seriously. This is just a super consistent horse who loves to win. He’s winless at Churchill but if he brings his A game, he won’t be beat.
2nd #8 Tommytom has only ran one bad race, and he’s got Florent Geroux aboard, so you can’t go wrong with that. Improving over time and it’s his first race at Churchill.
3rd #6 Shangroyal has ran against some pretty classy horses and has an easy Saratoga win this summer by eleven lengths. He still has quite a bit of work to do on earning back his expensive purchase price for $400,000 but he will get there.
Race 10– 1st You may be wondering why I would take #5 Tap Show on top. He hasn’t hit the board, and his last race he didn’t finish. Now he is on a drastic class drop from $50,000 to the bottom of the barrel. Comparing him to the rest of the field, he should be able to pull off a win or at least hit the board.
2nd #4 Wild Will is hoping to make start #18 a winning one. I find it very interesting that he was claimed, and then a couple races later his connections took him back. Not something seen very often for a horse running this cheap.
3rd #9 Whatelse Igot Todo doesn’t have a fantastic running pattern as he’s coming off of another layoff, and before that he had been off for five months. He is capable of hitting the board, and if he doesn’t, it will probably take a couple races to get him back into the swing of things.