Top Pick Win Rate = 23.3%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 60.2%
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Week 1 (11/2) – 10: 2-2-2, -30% ($20 wagered, $16 returned)
Week 2 (11/9) – 10: 0-1-4, -100% ($20 wagered, zero returned)
Week 3 (12/7) – 10: 2-2-2. -53% ($20 wagered, $9.40 returned)
Week 4 (12/14) – 9: 5-1-1, +98.89% ($18 wagered, $35.80 returned)
Week 5 (12/21) – 9: 2-2-2, even ($18 wagered, $17.90 returned)
Week 6 (12/28) – 9: 0-4-1, -100% ($18 wagered, zero returned)
Week 7 (1/4) – 9: 4-0-1, +97.7% ($18 wagered, $35.90 returned)
Week 8 (1/11) – 9: 2-4-2, +18.9% ($18 wagered, $21.40 returned)
TOTAL: 75: 17-16-15, -10.4% ROI ($150 wagered, $134.40 returned)
Race 1
5 – Distorted Sky – going turf to dirt in the second start for Bill Mott and gets the jockey upgrade to Jose Lezcano today. Works have been nice and he had some trouble in the debut, so I think the price will be fair compared to the other Mott to his inside. 5-1-4
Race 2
9 – Poshsky – this 10-year old gelding has danced a lot of dances in his career (16 for 70) and on paper doesn’t appear to be as fast as a few in here. That said, he draws outside and has the ideal stalk and pounce running style for this group. All the speed to his inside, a nice price and 20 career starts at today’s distance tells me this will hit him right between the eyes. Pace play in its purest form, hoping for a trip. 9-8-6
Race 3
7 – Le General – stays in the optional claiming ranks after three so-so turf starts, but this time comes back to the dirt in hopes of his first win since December 2018. His speed figures more than fit against this group, and we can toss his last effort after a very troubled trip. Two for two over the Big A main doesn’t hurt either, so I’m looking for a big return performance at a likely short price. 7-2-6
Race 4
7 – Tale of Mist – he’s been ultra-sharp in his last four starts, the last of which a very game effort at this same $50k ALW level. He’s 4: 1-1-1 at today’s six-panel distance and has the ideal stalking style for a field with TONS of speed to his inside. Eric Cancel keeps the mount, and I absolutely love his chances if this thing melts down on the front-end. 7-6-2
Race 5
13 – Brewman – the first start in December here at the Big A was nothing to write home about, but Linda Rice connects on 28% of her maiden second-timers and adds blinkers here today. I expect Manny Franco to be sending from the way-outside post, so let’s see if we can get a big effort in the return trip at a juicy price. 13-5-7
Race 6
7 – Preternatural – could he be the lone speed in here? He always breaks clean and has done well at this level in his last two starts, and the Schettino barn connects with 29% of their first-claim runners. He won his only Aqueduct start back in April and that occurred at today’s seven-furlong distance. Price should be right. 7-6-5
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Race 7
5 – Daddy Knows – he was very bad in the route try at the spa in August, but the five starts preceding that brutal effort were all state-bred company and he handled himself well. Linda Rice brings him back to the preferred sprint distance today and Lezcano gets the mount back. Love him at the 5-1 ML. 5-9-6
Race 8
5 – Stan the Man – he’s two for two at the 1 & 1/8th distance and clearly loves the Big A (12: 5-4-1), so this feels very right for the John Terranova gelding to continue his onslaught of big efforts. The 1/20 work was very sharp and the barn hits with 21% of their runners off the 31-60 day layoff. I love the possible setup he’ll get with the speed signed on here, so watch the tote and be ready to play with two fists. 5-1-4.
Race 9
2 – Broadway Angel – don’t love this race, but Pletcher bringing back a filly off a tough slop effort for her third career start with Lezcano in the irons is attractive for a win bet if the price is right. Spread in the late pick 5 if that’s your poison… 2-12-9-4-6-1
Have a great Saturday everyone!
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)