Churchill Downs Racing Analysis- Sunday Oct 27 2019- By Hunter Ulwelling

Race 1- 1st #4 Emily’s Oasis was a $325,000 purchase who’s got a lot of hype to live up to.  She’s by American Pharaoh out of a Speightstown mare. She’s got three starts under her belt, the worst was a fourth place, but she’s going to have to improve.

2nd #9 Shell Shock is another American Pharaoh filly who’s ran twice and finished second both times at Gulfstream.  She’s ridden by Corey Lanerie, which is one of the top jockeys in Kentucky.

3rd #3 Memory Moment is a Temple City filly owned by Spendthrift Farm, and since they’ve bought her back and since hung onto her, it shows a sign of confidence.  I’d like her works to be a little quicker but works don’t always mean everything.

Race 2- 1st #1 His Glory has ran in some tough, tough races compared to some of these girls.  She just ran second in a grade two last out. I think she has an excellent shot of winning this and her experience tops the others. 

2nd #4 Motu already has a race in this most recent meet at Keeneland, and it was a win.  Two wins in a row at Keeneland would be a tough to ask for. She ran a fantastic e-number last out and she has talent.  Not all horses dig Gulfstream but she improved quite a bit.

3rd #3 Maggie’s Monarch has a first and second from two starts, but those were at Indiana Grand and this is a significant change to that, but Brad Cox has her ready to go.  Tonalist definitely has potential as a sire.

Race 3- 1st #5 Ghost Fighter is the Mark Cassee trainee who finished second at Gulfstream in his debut.  He did cost half a million dollars, so really he should win here.

2nd #7 Halo Again was a pricey $600,000 so he should be the winner, (theoretically) but he’s got some fast works, and Steve Asmussen is a phenomenal trainer when it comes to two year olds.

3rd #3 Speightstown Again was a $675,000 purchase who I worry about too because he is looking as sharp as the others.  Decent workouts. Worked out really well last out especially last out.

Race 4- 1st #3 Seattle Sling lost by five in a half in her debut.  Her dam was multiple graded stakes winner and made a little over a million.  Tapit isn’t as hot as he used to be, but she’s got the dream pedigree and came at an expensive cost.

2nd #8 Palace Miss is by the up and (really) coming sire Palace Malice.  She finished third last out here, and with the meet closing it would be nice to see her bring it home.

3rd #9 First Course hasn’t been first yet, but her races have been decent actually.  She’s starting to get closer in her performances, and Victoria Oliver is a trainer who holds her own at these tracks.

Race 5- 1st #7 Longclaw is already stakes placed without a win.  Not something seen often. But it was quite good, especially with the ship from overseas.  One to watch for, and the one to beat.

2nd #9 Proven Strategies was thrown into a grade one at Woodbine and handled it remarkably well.  He’s only ran in New York and Toronto, and we will see how the change effects him.

3rd #10 Gold Endeavor ran quite a good race last out and it was a significant improvement from his prior races.  He seems to be showing more effort and I have a feeling he will be on the board. Helen Pitts doesn’t train many anymore so it’s hard to gage that.

Race 6- 1st #4 Field Pass is one I took last out, and even though he ran fourth, he was a respectable fourth, but this Maryland bred is just loaded with talent.  It’s not even obvious he’s a Maryland bred because of how he handles open company. Mike Maker has done great with him.  

2nd #9 Beyond Gone has earned back his purchase price in just a couple of races.  Always good to see Ken McPeek take a nice priced horse and turn it into something with prospect.  I expect him to do much better than last out, maybe that was a fluke.

3rd #2 Price James will have his hands full facing horses who have more experience then him, but I feel with his win in his only start he could be a threat, or at least gain some experience.  

Race 7- 1st #8 Answer In sure ran a good one last out, didn’t win, but still got a ninety e-number which is something allowances horses get.  Not often do maidens run these kinds of numbers, and I feel that race helped him prepare for this one.

2nd #7 Race Drive is by Distorted Humor out of an unraced mare.  His reasonable fourth place effort was good enough to make him well suited in this spot.

3rd #4 Cavalry Charge didn’t have the best of trips in his first start, but he could come back.  Dallas Stewart does better here than pretty much any other track, and this horse is bred so well he just is designed to run.

Race 8- 1st #10 Banks Island (another one I have chosen in the past) is the chalk here, and he is due for his maiden breaking race.  He’s got some very quality breeding and an up and coming trainer. Owned by Godolphin.

2nd #2 Excession was bought by Calumet Farm, and honestly, I haven’t seen them buy many horses.  He greatly improved in his last start and I think he’s on the upside. I’m excited to see him run in the race.  

3rd #7 Made Sense (by Street Sense) was a half million dollar buy who didn’t run well in his first start at Saratoga.  Experience is going to be key for this one.

Race 9- 1st 4 Finite is one that can go onto the Kentucky Oaks, or the prep races.  She’s quite accomplished for this field, and has the ability to win after a month and a half since her maiden breaking win.

2nd #7 Lucky Jingle has a nice little record from four starts.  She’s looking for her second win in a row, just won last out at Keeneland.  This one has a bright future.

3rd #4 Specially is by Tapizar, who’s a respected young stallion.  Asking two wins out of her is a lot, especially in a stakes race.  Cassee does well with two year olds in these kinds of races.

Race 10- 1st #4 South Bend is unbeaten, and a fast horse.  Just under $100K in earnings but wonderful races.  Dam was multiple graded stakes placed.

2nd 1 Sprawl just won his third race, a nice effort too.  City Zip is a wonderful sire, and all of his babies win.  Bill Mott only sends horses in to win.  

3rd #6 Silver Prospect just broke his maiden this past meet at Keeneland.  I’m not sure he’s got the talent South Bend does, but I think he will come around to be a nice horse.

Race 11- 1st #7 Beautiful Trauma has raced twice, both were respectable efforts, but her last race was an improvement.  The dam was accomplished as well as her sire, Tapiture. She is trained by Tom Amoss.

2nd #6 Irrepressible dam, Unbridled Ridge, only ran once, and it wasn’t a good performance.  The connections saw something in her that we don’t, (maybe it’s that pedigree) and bred her, so here is the daughter of Into Mischief who finished third in her first race.

3rd #1 Never Forget hails from a mare I used to enjoy watching run, named Frivolous, who was a graded stakes winner.  She’s by War Front, a first time starter. I’d like this one to someday to be on turf because War Front babies tend to excel on the turf.

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