This is a tremendous 13 race card, highlighted by a strong edition of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. Most of the stakes races look reasonably logical, with strong first and second choices in many, but there’s plenty of great wagering opportunities throughout the day.
Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, F/M, 7 Furlongs: My Picks: 1a-8-2
In the opener, I’m going to try to beat the Chad Brown firster, and the most logical option is Movie Moxy (1A) who has two really strong races, just missing in a strong maiden allowance at Keeneland last out. She feels like the most likely winner. Chewy Chewy Good (8) debuted in a decent maiden special weight at a flat mile at Ellis last out. She showed good speed before coming up empty in the stretch. The cutback has been a good angle for Sharp, so there will be value on this second time starter. Glamour Girl (2) is often the bridesmaid, but never the bride. She should be a little closer earlier while cutting back to a sprint. She’s been in the trifecta in her last four tries and would be a decent play underneath.
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight, 2yoF, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 5-12-7
A lot of high profile connections are looking to send out their best maidens fillies here as this race oversubscribed and split into two divisions. This race and the 5th could be ones to look back on down the road. I’ll try a pair of first time starters by up and coming young stallions with solid workout foundations. Rock Star Parking (5) has a series of solid works that date back to May. Juveniles from sire Upstart are off to a good start and she stands to be overlooked in the wagering. Correras sends out Super Sport (12), a daughter of Not This Time. I like the outside draw and her two, four furlong drills at Keeneland suggest she can run. Quick Munny (7) looks the most appealing of those with experience. She broke quick and was passed by a much the best winner last out. She should grow from that effort.
Race 3: OC/NW2X, F/M, 1 Mile 1/16: My Picks: 1-4-3
Tough field to gauge here, but I ended up on High Regard (1) in hopes she’ll rebound off a dull effort at Ellis. She’s run her best races here and faces some horses that might not be able to duplicate their most recent efforts. Positive Spirit (4) exits a strong edition of the Shine Again at the Spa, where she was making her first start since last year’s Kentucky Oaks. She’s better at two turns, but is a bit of a question if she can get back to her best form. Sara Sea (3) has a habit of not finishing her races, but in terms speed figures she fits for a piece when racing at Churchill.
Race 4: Allowance NW1X, F/M, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 6-1-9
Ocean Breeze (6) has a class edge over these, most recently chasing home Mundaye Call in the Audubon Oaks at Ellis. She has a really good win sprinting here and should get a good set up as a lot of these fillies don’t finish well. She Can’t Sing (1) is more of an exotics player in here, as she’s had many chances to pass this level, but has come up short. She too will benefit if they go fast early. Irish Willow (9) has the look of a longshot who will be overlooked. She’s coming off a layoff and has been primarily a turf router. Romans can be sneaky with horses like this at times and her sire, Paddy O’Prado sure looked like he liked this course.
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 2yoF, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 11-10-8
The second division of this maiden special weight race is as wide open as the first. Ellis invader Honorifique (11) debuted in a respectable 7 Furlong maiden special weight last month. She stayed on nicely for second and now cuts back. The daughter of Air Force Blue, Off We Go (10) debuts for Amoss. Her works are as good as any in here. Travel Column (8) is the most expensive purchase in this field, as OXO Equine paid $850,000 for this daughter of Frosted. Frosted has had some runners win impressively of late.
Race 6: OC/NW3X, 6 1/2 Furlongs: My Picks: 8-7-5
Not a lot of early foot for a stakes caliber allowance sprint, so the advantage goes to Strike That (8) for Diodoro. He took advantage of a similar situation against lesser rivals at Saratoga last out. He’s drawn outside again and should be hard to pass if he’s allowed to set a soft first quarter. Lasting Legacy (7) hasn’t had the cleanest starts in his last two, but this six year old can still run. He doesn’t have a ton of early foot, but he can adapt to different pace scenarios. Honest Mischief (5) is pretty much always the best bred horse in every race he’s in. He’s a good horse, but he hasn’t really lived up to his high expectations.
Race 7: NW1X Allowance, F/M, 1 Mile 1/16, Turf: My Picks: 4-8-1
This is an absolutely wide open first level allowance, so I’ll look for a price with More Good Times (4). She was good, while working out a wide trip to break her maiden at Ellis last out. She’s improved since joining the Maker barn and could take another step forward. Sicilia (8) came to the Drysdale barn with a strong foundation overseas. Her first race in North America was good enough to compete at this level if she’s able to duplicate that. Audrey’s Time (1) improved on the grass over the winter at the Fair Grounds. She had traffic trouble in her last race in March in stakes company. She may need this race, but she’s worth a shot at a price.
Race 8: The G3 Eight Belles, 3yo Fillies, 7 Furlongs: My Picks: 7-5-1
It’s a battle between Mundaye Call and Four Graces in the first of six stakes races on this top notch Oaks Day Card. I’m strongly favoring Four Graces (7) whose perfect at the distance and on the course. I think the outside draw gives her the advantage on Mundaye Call (1) who has got to be all in on the rail. She’s been expertly handled by Wilkes and Leparoux has ridden her perfectly in all four of her wins. Sconsin (5) keeps finding herself in these middle distance sprint races where she’s get a solid pace to set up her late close, but she hasn’t been good enough to beat the top two fillies. They’ll go quick again, and she has run her best career race here. Mundaye Call (1) cost just shy of a million dollars and she’s started to look like that kind of horse since joining the Brad Cox barn. She was brilliant at Ellis last out winning gate to wire, but closers seemed to struggle to come home that day. She needs to be able to duplicate that effort for me to be willing to take her at such a short number.
Race 9: The Grade 2 Edgewood, 3yo Fillies, 1 Mile, Turf: My Picks: 2-3-8
This race features the return of Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Sharing, who is clearly the horse to beat, however, I’ll go to take a stab with Hendy Woods (2) to pull the mild upset. Her only loss came on this course, but she has a tough post and a tough trip that day. She was strong at Indiana Grand closing well on a heavier course. I think there’s going to be an honest pace here, which only helps her cause. Sharing (3) is out of two Breeders Cup winners and she’s already continued her family’s legacy. She ran a strong second across the pond at Royal Ascot. She had a little break and now returns here. She is a special filly, but this might be the best chance to beat here. Walk in Marrakesh (8) did everything right except win in the Appalachian last out when Enola Gay nipped her at the wire. She hasn’t won since coming here last year from overseas, but she’s lost three photos for the top spot. She scratched at Woodbine last weekend in favor of this spot.
Race 10: The G2 Alysheba, 1 Mile 1/16 My Picks: 6-3-1
By My Standards (6) started 2020 with a bang, winning the New Orleans Classic and the Oaklawn Handicap. He faced the best of the division in the Stephen Foster and Whitney, and ran credible seconds in both. He shortens up a bit and doesn’t have to deal with Tom’s d’Etat or Improbable here. The main threat is McKinzie (2) and the 2020 version of that one doesn’t excite me much. I’m looking for a better race from Owendale (3) who was a little flat in the Foster after impressively winning the blame here back in May. He got a brief freshening and I think the 8.5 Furlongs is a perfect distance for him. Silver Dust (1) is worth a flier in the trifecta, as he, too, was last seen in the Stephen Foster in June. He gets a better post today and his hit the trifecta in 9 of his last 12 starts.
Race 11: The G1 La Troienne, F/M, 1 Mile and 1/16, My Picks: 8-2-4
It’s hard to envision a scenario where someone other than Monomoy Girl (8) or Vexatious (2) wins this race. Monomoy Girl is a machine who has only crossed the finish line first in all but one of her 13 starts, and even then, she only beaten a neck. She has been lightly campaigned this year, but she has been as good as she ever was, holding off Vexatious in the Ruffian most recently. Vexatious meanwhile, took it to Midnight Bisou last out, and beat her on the square in the Personal Ensign. I just wonder if she has enough in the tank to beats another champion after that monster effort. I’m squarely against Horologist (1) who freaked at Monmouth, (where she’s won 5 of her 6 lifetime races) but has been average anywhere else. I’ll try Sarcosa (4) on the bottom to try to add a little value to what figures to be a chalky race.
Race 12: The G1 Kentucky Oaks, 3yo Fillies, 1 Mile and 1/8, My Picks: 4-1-5
The Oaks is billed as Gamine versus Swiss Skydiver and rightfully so, as these fillies have put on a show in 2020. From a wagering standpoint though, I think Speech (4) is definitely being overlooked and is closer to the top two than she’s being given credit for. She came within a neck of Gamine in Gamine’s only two turn try and she ran as well as Swiss Skydiver did in their respective races at Keeneland. She has the ability to sit off what’s likely going to be a strong pace with Swiss Skydiver drawing the rail. I think she can build off getting that big win after finishing second four times prior. Swiss Skydiver (1) comes back in quick order after decimating the Alabama field last out. She’s clearly the one to beat, while cutting back in distance. She’s had a demanding campaign though and that may come in to play, especially after a 10 Furlong test twenty days ago. Gamine (5) has two eye popping Grade 1 wins, but they’ve come at one turn, and this is a big ask. She’s out to prove that she’s worth every penny, and she might be too good for this field. However, I suspect she might not be as effective at 9 Furlongs.
Race 13: The Twin Spires Turf Sprint, 5 1/2 Furlongs Turf: My Picks: 8-5-4
After five stakes races that feel like they could be very chalky, this race seems ripe for a price. Just Might (8) has the look of a horse that could be completely overlooked in this race. He’s a four year old with upside that won the Colonel Power at the distance at the Fair Grounds in February. He’s had notable trouble in his last two races, including his last when he was checked hard in the Shakertown, where he still was within three lengths of the winner. He’ll need a good trip, which can be a bit of a crapshoot in a 14 horse turf sprint, but if he stays around 30-1, I’ll take that gamble on him. I thought Extravagant Kid (5) was very live in the Shakertown at 9-1, but he got away slow, and left him further behind early then he’s ever been. He still finished with strong interest that day, and returns to a course where he’s never been worse than second. Bound for Nowhere (4) has a lot of competition early on to deal with. I think he’s the best of the speeds, but lately he’s been softened up early and been getting caught late.