Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves scented candles, pizza, sarcasm, and lively discussions. He hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge.
Thanks for the wonderful responses regarding my father’s surgery. We have him home in his own bed and his recovery looks promising. Call your dad today, I’ll hug mine.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:05 post – MC 30K 7F F&M 3YO an Up
8-2-6-5 $5 DD 8/2
8-6-1-2 OFF $5 exacta box 6/8 $2 tri 8/1,6/1,6 $1 tri box 1,6,8
The ML favorite is Wayne Lukas’ #2 Say it Softly, but do we really want a runner that is winless after ten starts at this level? Sure, she looks like the most likely winner on paper, but there really is no reason to take a short price when others have more value and look like they could improve. Joe Rocco appears to choose the #5 Igottawhiteface over the #7 Veiled Vixen, and Michael Tomlinson has worked her honestly three times already in October. Though she has the lowest sire stud fee in this MC affair, she has every right to improve, but her wet track pedigree is a downgrade should this race turn up muddy. #6 Ruthless Child gets ten pounds of weight relief on the field and returns to the main track after a few turf efforts. She has proven that she doesn’t hate the mud by finishing in the money both times ahe ran in off-track conditions. She has a real chance with no inclement weather and a she is a serious upgrade if this race goes off muddy. Though she is the most expensive filly in the race, I’m not going to use #1 Dev Mo unless the main track is muddy. Indian Charlie babies like the mud, so use her in off-track conditions. It looks like Kellyn Gorder has #8 Mrs Howell on her toes for this race as he worked her from the gate on 10/10/18 to address her slow start in her last race. She keeps Santana and she has never been this low on the ladder. Being a daughter of Distorted Humor won’t hurt her in the mud either. She is my top choice regardless of track conditions, though I would be a little more nervous in the mud because of the off-track upgrade to the #6.
Race Two: 1:39 post – Maiden Claiming 15K 1 Mile F&M 3YO and UP
2-8-5-9 $2 tri 2/5,8,9/5,8,9
2-5-9-8 OFF $10 DD 5/1 $5 exacta box 2/5
Michael Maker puts the “For Sale” sign on #5 Hey Good Lookin after a very compromised effort on 10/6/18 here at Keeneland. Tyler Gaffalione decides to stay aboard, so all hope is not lost. As a child of Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie), she is a serious upgrade on an off-track. Edgar Morales jumps off #3 B Deb’s Fortune for the #8 Elusive Bae, who has never been offered up this low. She has been trying the turf for most of her career and she returns to the main dirt track for only the second time. To use her, I have to draw a line through her 4/28/18 effort in Tampa where she was the beaten favorite by 17 lengths. I am giving her a long look based on weight reduction and a little early turn of foot. #9 Molly’s Game is trying dirt for the third time for Jason Barkley since being claimed on 8/31/18. Her initial dirt effort wasn’t too bad, though she did have a little trouble and her last effort showed a little kick down the lane. #2 Cassidy Ave seems to be the play as she gave them way too much of a lead at this same level in her last effort. She certainly picked up the pieces in the lane, but she really had way too much to do. I expect Chris Landeros to have her more forwardly placed today from the inside post.
Race Three: 2:12 post – Claiming 50000 7F 3YO
1-6-3-5 $10 DD 1/1 $5 DD 1/6
1-2-6-3 OFF $5 exacta 2,6/1 $10 exacta 1/2 $10 DD 1,2/8
#1 Wegotoldyougotsold won for fun here at Keeneland on 10/6/18 one level lower and I expect the same today. The only threat I can mount against the ML favorite is this race going muddy, as the #6 Simsbury and #2 Articulator could both be hard to handle on an off track. Articulator has won three races on a sloppy or good track, so that is tough to ignore. #3 Coach Adams, under Jose Ortiz, seems to have the best early speed, so he may play “catch me if you can.” I think they can.
Race Four: 2:45 post – Maiden 67K 1 5 1/2F Turf 2YO Fillies
1-6-8-9
8-13-5-11 OFF
Sixteen entries with eight first time starters for this turf sprint. Yeah, it’s wide open. The only runner with previous experience that I have any interest in backing is the #8 Quiet Company. She has had three show finishes in her three lifetime starts and she returns to the turf in her second start for Stanley Hough. Albarado stays aboard and a couple of good recent works make her a player. Two first time starters catch my eye, #1 Lady Worthington and #6 And She’s Gone. Lady Worthington has shown some serious talent in her morning workouts for Wesley Ward and she is a 650K child of Scat Daddy, selling for 6 ½ times the stud fee. Graham Motion has And She’s Gone and her 725K price tag out of War Front. Both of these first time starters look to be challengers on pedigree alone, but I prefer Lady Worthington. That said, beware the “other” Ward firster #9 Alpilles.
Race Five: 3:18 post – MC 30000 6F 2YO
5-2-11-3
There doesn’t appear to be a lot of talent in this maiden claimer as the only previous starter I like is the #5 Mister Harvey. Brad Cox keeps this colt sprinting and enters at a level he hasn’t seen before. He has every right to improve in his second start back, so he certainly has a chance. The two firsters that interest me the most are #2 Awe Mun and #11 Divine Favor. I am having some difficulty wrapping my head around this puzzle as Joe Sharp trains them both, yet he also owns Divine Favor. I am not sure why he would enter a horse he owns against another member of his stable. For that reason, it is entirely possible that one will scratch before the race. Both have had solid works preparing for their first race and Sharp gets Rocco and Beschizza for their debuts. There seems to be a lot to like with these two. #3 City Siege is the other experienced runner that I will use. He hasn’t really threatened against MSW foes, but his recent works suggest the light bulb could go on at any time.
Race Six: 3:51 post – Claiming 20000n2L 6F 3YO and Up
8-5-10-9
8-3-6-10 OFF $2 exacta box 3,6,8 $1 super 8/3,6,10/3,6,10/3,6,10 $5 DD 3,6,8/2,8
This claiming race has some interesting dynamics and I am going to take a major stand against the two most logical horses on paper. #5 Twin Farms has been facing much tougher and is being dropped several classes by Ben Colebrook. He even gets Jose Oritz in the irons, which suggests that this horse has every right to win the race. Why the major drop? Garry Simms is dropping the #10 Class Won a couple of rungs on the ladder and attracts Ricardo Santana Jr. for the first time. I’m not so sure I want a horse dropping for this much as I would rather have a horse that looks logical. For that reason, I will take my stand with #8 Out of Hydeing. Tyler Gaffalione stays with this gelding after a very decent effort last out on 10/6/18 here at Keeneland. This gelding was toward the front last time and got passed down the stretch by a couple runners, but still held on for a very game fourth only 2 lengths back. I would much rather have this horse than the two major class-droppers, and my price is sure to be right.
Race Seven: 4:24 post – Allowance 71Kn2X 1 1/16 Mile Turf 3YO and Up
2-6-1-4 $5 Pk3 2/2/6,9
8-2-3-4 OFF $5 Pk3 8/2/2,4,5,11
This is an extremely even race on paper and most of the entrants have a chance to win. #4 Ceevee looks to be lone speed and I am sure Albin Jimenez will try to walk the dog on the front end for Kelly Breen. If no one pressures him, he might just get away with it. #6 Bird’s Eye View should relish the garden spot and could very easily win this race is he runs back to his 9/13/18 race at Kentucky Downs, and that’s not a lot to ask here. #1 Tigers Rule certainly has the most back class and he keeps James Graham for the third straight race. Vickie Foley hasn’t gotten him back to form since returning to the races, but a win here is not out of the question. #2 Argentic ran a bit of a clunker at this level on 10/5/18 for Graham Motion in his American debut. That race was its first effort after a long year off and I expect a much better effort today. You can single #8 Iconic if this race washes off the turf.
Race Eight: 4:57 post – Allowance 69Kn1x 7F F&M 3YO and Up
2-8-10-1 $10 DD 2/6,9
2-8-10-4 OFF $10 DD 2/2,4
#10 Cathedral Reader is our ML favorite, and she is probably the best horse in the race, but I certainly don’t want her from the ten hole. #1 Truth Goddess has drawn the rail for her first race facing winners and she could be very dangerous on the front end if she improves just a little bit in her second dirt race. #8 Laney certainly fits here, but she hasn’t had her picture taken in well over a year and I wonder if she really wants to win. Her recent running lines tell me that she gives it up down the lane. For that reason, I will take #2 Haynesfest to pull a mild upset. Tom Amoss hasn’t won during this fall Keeneland meet, but he has this filly working nicely and she certainly draws well into this race.
Race Nine: 5:30 post – 69Kn2L 1 Mile Turf Fillies 2YO
6-9-2-10 $20 WP 6 $5 DD 6/1,3,7,9
2-4-5-11 OFF
To me, this was the most wide-open race on today’s card as I could have used any number of runners and most make sense. Add in the fact that these are 2YO runners with license to improve at any time and you have the makings on a head-scratcher. #10 Reflected won for fun in her debut in an Arlington Park turf sprint, but I wonder if the added distance will be too much to ask against other winners. #2 Slimey has shown that a mile isn’t too much with her decent second place finish on the turf at Churchill Downs on 9/29/18. She is not without a chance. #9 Boxwood won a nice MSW at Kentucky Downs at a little shorter distance, but she was entered at a mile in her first career race, so I don’t have any concerns here. I really like the Wesley Ward #6 Speedy Solution in this spot. She ran a credible sixth in the Jessamine to Concrete Rose in her last race and she was only 4 ¾ lengths back when the Rose pulled away from the field by open lengths. I am not thrilled Jose Ortiz jumped off of her for Boxwood, but I’ll beat him just the same.
Race Ten: 6:03 post – 67K MSW 6F Fillies 2YO
3-1-7-9 $20 WP 3 $1 exacta 3/ALL $1 exacta ALL/3
3-1-7-2 OFF $20 WP 3 $1 exacta 3/ALL $1 exacta ALL/3
#1 Naughty Joker is the ML favorite for Wesley Ward, but I am going to try a few first time starters in today’s closing race. #7 High Road has the of a well-intentioned first time starter for George Arnold. He doesn’t win at first asking (5%), but this one could. #9 Lool Beh is a first time starter for Chris Davis, who wins at 7% at first asking. This filly has been working well in the morning and her momma certainly has thrown some winners. Sophie Doyle gets her only mount of the day with this filly and I like her chances. I think Brad Cox has #3 Ulele ready for her debut as her morning works show she has some talent. I especially like the 5F works in addition to the two gate works. In addition, she seems to like the Keeneland track as her last four workouts have been of good quality here. She is my pick.