Welcome back to the Friday version of the Daily Gallop for Churchill Downs. Pretty nice card we have here with a couple prices that I like quite a bit. Lets see if we can get off this bad streak of losers and find a couple nice winners in here. To the selections we go!!!
Race 1-
#3 Curlin Rules, 7/2 ML, will be running 2nd off the shelf for Sadler who won LTO at OP against the same level. I actually believe this group might be, top to bottom, a little softer then that group at OP which is a good sign. This gelding did sneak in two works at CD, both were solid in what should be another improvement off that effort last time. I know its a single turn mile but there is a LOAD of speed signed on here and I don’t believe this one HAS to have the lead to be successful. Should get a nice trip sitting in right behind the cheap speed and be able to get out and win without issues here.
#7 Heavy Roller, 3/1 ML, needs a look in here from the standpoint that he’s one of the only closers in this field that has speed figures to match some of the top contenders. I do believe the general public will go in different directions then this one and we could get a solid number on a runner that, as I just said, has speed figures of 98,95,97 in his last three races if fresh off the shelf.
#4 Lusitano, 12/1 ML, has some early foot for Joe Sharp who’s runners have been doing extremely well. There is other early foot in here but Martin Garcia hasn’t done much wrong in the first couple weeks of this meet. Has been working well and 2nd time for the new barn, I think an improve is in store. The move to the main track isnt an issue with 2-1-1-0 lifetime on the fast main track. I think this horse has a huge shot at a number in here.
Race 2-
#2 Medicine Tail, 12/1 ML, could be up against some monsters here from Cox and Ward but I’m going to take a shot against those with this runner who I’ve been waiting to see in the PP’s for quite some time now. The few people that I know that work at the training track here in Louisville have mentioned this runner for weeks. Sure, there doesn’t seem to be many works on the tab but to be transparent, all of the works aren’t in the form. Horse is bred to win early, took more then 6x stud fee at the FT sale and is ready to rumble in start number one.
#12 Knicks Front, 3/1 ML, looks to be the better of the Cox/Ward’s imo. Horse moved over the KEE track effortlessly in the morning works. Looks to me to have a really nice coat and is extremely big for being a late 2yo. The May16 work from the gate is what was eye popping. Jockey didn’t move an inch and this colt did it without any urging whatsoever. Should be ready to roll here.
#14 Really Slow, 30/1 ML, brings back some memories of earlier this meet where we had Kellenberger on an outside horse (12) at a MONSTER number. This one is a first time gelding who will want to show more early foot and we should get that with now being gelded and putting a bug boy on. A nice 3f drill on 5/15 :35 from the gate tells me that this one could go to the front and challenge early. A race under this ones belt could prove to be extremely vital from a familiarity standpoint on race day.
Race 3-
#8 Lil Mateo, 7/2 ML, comes in for Drury who has been hot to start this meet. I actually think we can get the full morning line with this one with the Asmussen runner going to take a lot of play. This horse drops to the bottom level but takes a significant class drop which should be of benefit. I think more then anything, the fact that this one gets back to the main track as opposed to the poly is what will do the trick. This runner has some efforts on the main that just can’t be matched by anybody else in here. Drury keeps Franklin on who rode LTO and we see that Drury is only 28% with +ROI off these type of layoffs. Gonna be tough.
#5 Flight Time, 3/1 ML, will be the favorite in here as they bust the gate. Asmussen and Santana team up with this one who is coming in off a win at the conditional 5k level at HOU. Two races back this one didn’t show up at OP where it was run on a muddy track and I don’t believe this one ever took to it. Now off the shelf, will see another fast track, and has to be the one to beat in here. NOTE: So often, in these bottom level claimers, the top connections are the ones that do the best… this would be considered the top combo in here.
#10 Most Mischief, 15/1 ML, needed one for Lauer first off the claim. One of the biggest angles I like is the fact that Lauer is 33% 2nd off the claim and 21% 2nd off the layoff. If this horse can return to any type of form from last year, he has a monster shot in here at a number that will just be mind boggling. For a solid trainer like Lauer, I would expect a monster improve in here and I’ll include on most tickets just because the number is going to be astronomical. Will need to improve greatly to contend but I think we get that.
Race 4-
#2 Victory Element, 7/2 ML, finally gets back to the mile distance where he’s had the most success according to speed figures. Now third off the layoff here, we should get a top effort with a horse who should be going to the front early and will be the one to catch. With having the early foot, the biggest benefit this one will have will be just going the 1 turn as opposed to 2 turns and getting the massive class relief. Doesn’t hurt that Hobby is 32% so far this year with his small barn. Keeps Rocco on too who knows this horse like the back of his hand.
#9 Roaring Fork, 3/1 ML, needed one off the shelf for Miller and should see a top effort here. Another runner who is getting serious class relief here and also takes off the blinkers. Has some tactical speed but is not the need the lead type who could get a perfect set up for the team of Miller/De La Cruz who’ve won a race in two teamups over the last 60 days. 2nd off the layoff, horse cutting back to a single turn, makes this one a serious contender in here. I don’t love the 3/1 ML but perhaps this one might float up from that number.
Race 5-
#1 Sugoi, 6/1 ML, will be my SINGLE to end the Early Pick5’s and Pick4’s. Morey who has been knocking on the door to start this meet brings in a runner who has won two in a row with an increasing speed figure in each and every start, capped with the 88 last time out while trying the conventional dirt for the first time. Ships over to CD where horse has been training well in the couple weeks being here and primed for another big effort off the shelf. NOTE: The one big concern I have is the fact that Morey couldn’t lure anybody but Albin to jump on in this spot. Either way, that’s the only negative I see with this runner who should get a really nice trip behind the speed while getting the shortest route around.
Race 6-
#3 Dreamalildreamofu, 9/2 ML, ships in for Brad Cox who has been improving over her three career starts capped with an 88 speed figure LTO at OP while trying the conventional dirt for the first time. That race, AOC80k at OP, is significantly tougher then the group she will face today outside of the ML favorite, #5 Tempers Rising. She has some tactical speed which is nice to see in a race that is really lacking some true early foot. With the improving speed figures in every start, lightly raced and what she showed in her debut on the dirt LTO, there is no reason to think that Cox won’t have her firing on all cylinders today.
#9 Cherokee Maiden, 8/1 ML, is the speed of the speed in here. This runner for Hollendorfer will be the one they have to catch today on the front end while drawing on the outside. I know it took this horse 9 tries to finally see the finish line in first but sometimes once they do it, they do it right back. Horse is in great form having not finished out of the exacta in her 4 previous starts. It doesn’t hurt that Martin Garcia gets on as well who has just been on fire to start this meet winning over 20%. Again, as we said before, with a race that is really lacking some early footing, they’ll have to catch the teal #9 to win this event.
#5 Tempers Rising, 5/2 ML, will be the overwhelming choice in here and rightfully so. Having finished 2nd in the FG Oaks, 3rd in the non graded Silverbulletday Stakes, she has class that puts the rest of these horses to shame. The one big negative on this one is that she had some really nice pace set ups in those stakes that she won’t get here. Lep will have to have her closer today to have any chance. With that being said, if she runs back to either one of the aforementioned stakes runs, she should win this one by a 1/4 mile. She’s the one they’ll have to beat.
Race 7-
#4 Borracho, 6/1 ML, will be my PLAY OF THE DAY!!!!!! A horse that broke his maiden that my company sponsored, I’ve followed this runner in each and every start of his career which included a Derby Day triumph against AOC company that was loaded. There is no question that the horse is for course and no doubt he loves the distance. I think we can cross out that effort at GP where he was coming off the layoff from Aug-April and he never looked comfortable and was well beaten to a really nice runner in Global Campaign. 2nd off the shelf, returns to his favorite track, his favorite distance and gets a monster jockey upgrade to Jose Ortiz. I think he will be extremely tough in here against a solid field but nothing like in some of his previous starts.
Race 8-
#5 Wilbo, 15/1 ML, the LONGSHOT PLAY OF THE DAY comes here. I’ve been waiting forever for this one to actually hit the lawn for the first time. Is well bred for the lawn and imo believe that his best running will be done while running on the grass. Now, with this race being just 5/8ths as opposed to the classic 3/4 mile that he is used to, perhaps this race might be a little short for him but either way, should relish this new surface. From the race scenario perspective, should get a perfect trip while not having very much early foot and there is A LOT signed on in here. Should get a really nice trip in here now 3rd off the layoff and should be primed for a top effort in here. NOTE: Lanerie has been riding extremely well while returning to his home track. I have no problems with this jockey as he’s ridden this one to a couple of wins and seconds prior.
#7 Wellabled, 8/1 ML, is a runner for a guy in Rivelli who is scorching hot right now. He is hitting at a % off these type of long layoffs that’s just unfathomable. His runner has only tried the turf twice in career, one of those was a 2nd place finish. If this horse, who is working lights out in the morning at KEE and Pmm prior to the ship. If there is a chance, which I think there is, that this runner can return to those 100+ speed figures, everybody else will be running for second. Has speed, back class and the training job of Rivelli in his corner. Going to be tough if fresh off the shelf like I expect.
#3 Real News, 8/1 ML, ships in for Al Stall who is a winner of two in a row. Stall ships in Colby Hernandez, who has ridden this one in both of those wins, which included a stakes win a HOU last time out. This is another runner, who by all means has tactical speed but does not want the lead in here. With coming from the mid pack, he could get the absolute perfect trip in here sitting behind a nuke pace. Stall hasn’t been as good as what we typically expect him to be at CD but he has a really nice runner who runs well off these type of layoffs and will be given every opportunity to have success in here.
Race 9-
#10 Heros Reward, 10/1 ML, ships in from OP for Catalano. Took the drop down to the 30k level to finally break his maiden, that was a 91 speed figure and so the bounce was in store and that’s exactly what happened. I also think that the off going that day at OP wasn’t ideal either and perhaps provided a bias that day of closers. Gets a class drop here, returns to sprinting, has tactical speed while drawing outside and working well with a 4f drill :47 flat at CD tells me that this one should be ready to fire here in this spot.
#2 Predator, 5/2 ML, will be the chalk but has a big chance in here with the drop. The match race was on LTO but I don’t think this one was ready while coming off that extended layoff. Gets a huge class relief today and returns to a track where he broke his maiden against a really nice group of colts. The 7f distance should fit this one like a glove and has some early foot to get in a good spot today. Cox has been hot early in the meet and will have another live one here. NOTE: Interesting that this one isnt super quick in the AM but seems to have some nuke speed on race days. Perhaps this one needs another one but as hot as the Cox barn has been… I can’t leave off any tickets.
#11 Nice of Me, 20/1 ML, is a nice longshot here for Michelle Lovell who took the blinks off last time out and the return to form was obvious. The slight move up in class isnt a monster deal, imo. Has been working well which includes a 5f drill in 1:00.3 on 5/23 in prep for this effort here. While parked outside, don’t be surprised to see this one wide throughout but closer to the lead and will be the first one to take a shot at the leaders. For anybody who will be backing this one, we need to hope that Alex Achard takes a pretty aggressive tactic with this one. We need to be close today to have a chance.
Best of luck to everybody today! Lets find some winners and cash some tickets!!!!
– Geno