Belmont Selections 9.27.19
By Vinny Blond from @PicksByDynasty
Race 1: 4,1A,3
This is a terrible race to start Friday’s action here at Belmont. There are no runners in this field and a lot of short prices. I landed on Oso Negro wo is dropping in class and is a first-time gelding. I do not like the morning line favorite Roller Rolls On here at all so may be a race where I toss the favorite and use the rest in my Pick 5.
Race 2: 5,4,2
Bustin Hoffman is dropping in class today and is adding Saez in the irons which I think is a major pick up in today’s field. For the limited number of mounts that Saez has for Gullo they have a positive ROI this year together which is more than the rest of this field can say. I think the class relief will be very beneficial for this one and would keep him on all your tickets.
Race 3: 6,3,5
I am taking a swing here with Mazmania as my top pick here who is coming in off a 4th place finish against similar company last time out. She gets Franco back in the irons which is an improvement from Cancel and should get a similar pace set up as she did last time out. Franco and Gary Sclacca have been a very solid team this year with a $5.98 ROI this year with 13 starters and 38%. I would use these top 3 on multi wagers.
Race 4: 6,2,1
Astoria Kitten took a lot of money in her debut but had an awful start and that pretty much eliminated her from contention. Today with a race under her belt I am expecting her to take money again today and I am expecting an improvement. Gargan has been throwing out live horses all year and him and Lezcano as a team at Belmont are winning at a ridiculous 43% clip.
Race 5: 5,4,9
Linda Rice is excellent with maidens 2nd time out and Turned Aside is a horse that I think is a very likely winner here. Sired by American Phaorah and showed speed first time out and was gaining late. Gets a jockey change to Franco who has been solid since Belmont opened for the Fall meet and should get a similar outside trip as e did in his debut. An improvement makes him very dangerous.
Race 6: 4,3,7
Doups Point is going to be the heavy favorite here but I am going to single this one on all my multi race tickets. Has been knocking at the door against much tougher and if he runs back to his previous 2 races he should find the winners circle today. A negative on him is that Junior is getting the mount today who has been ice cold this Belmont meet, but I cannot see another runner beating this one unless something goes wrong during the race.
Race 7: 4,5,6
Albertville (Ger) ran alright off a layoff against tougher in her first start in North America back here in April. Today she gets a jockey upgrade to Franco from Cancel and with Mentality in this race she should get a favorable pace scenario to sit behind. There is a very good chance that Mentality takes this field gate to wire so I will keep this one on my multi race tickets but I think she will be around 3/5 when the gates open.
Race 8: 8,9,7
No Regrets is the most logical horse I think in this finale which like race 1 is a terrible race. I would hate to take 8-5 or less on this one so I recommend if you like him you single him on your tickets and if you don’t you toss him and hope a price comes in. He has been camera shy all year but has been right there against similar company and gets Javier back in the irons today.
Good Luck and follow @PicksByDynasty for updates due to scratches and multi race plays.