Race 1
5 – Special Story – will try the cutback for a barn that hasn’t had much success recently in that regard, but the stalking trip in the last attempt is promising if the pace quickens here. Could also be a pace-setter if the opportunity presents itself, but there appears to be just enough zip in here to set it up for a stalk-and-pounce. 5-2-7
Race 2
11 – Givetheman A Cigar – loves a wet track (5: 0-4-0) as much as a maiden can like anything, so this one coming off the lawn doesn’t bother me too much. He dueled up front and got beat at the wire, but he could actually get some pace-relief in here and I think he finally graduates today. 11-16-1
Race 3
2 – Dannie’s Deceiver – getting in the time machine for this one, as he hasn’t been seen since November of 2016 (!!) after an on-track injury. We are happy to report that he’s made a full recovery, and makes his return in the short field here today. Despite the presumed rust, he could catch a wet surface (6:2-2-0) and his late-running style could fit well in a field that has some early zip. 2-6-3
Race 4 – Sheepshead Bay – G2, $200k
5 – Holy Helena – coming off a very sharp stalking win in the G3 Very One at Gulfstream on 3/2, I love her to repeat today for a barn that connects at 20% off wins in 40 tries. This is a salty bunch, but there appears to be absolutely zero speed in here and I think she can be versatile enough to take this one from the front-end as opposed to her traditional late one-run style. Doesn’t need the lead of course, but look for her to be just off and have first crack in the lane.
5-8-6
Race 5
13 – Private Beach – assuming this main track-only gets into the field, I was very impressed by his last start in the slop after a shaky break from the gate. That race occurred in September right here at Belmont, and though the barn hasn’t tried too many off such a long break, take a look at the recent bullets. Looks ready for a return. 13-2-3
Race 6
7 – Mr. Dougie Fresh – despite being the heavy favorite in here, and forgetting that he has an all-time racehorse name, I can’t go away from him in this spot. He drew perfectly on the outside and has the stalking style to swallow up all the speed in here. Look for him drawing away in the stretch. Yawn, but a single in the mutli-race plays if you’re into that sort of thing.. 7-4-5
Race 7
13 – Starship Zeus – another main-track only horse who also appreciates a wet surface (4:1-1-1); I like the outside draw and his record over the distance (11: 0-4-5), as well as the 5/1 work. If he can avoid going wide into the far turn, should be right there to pounce. 13-8-5
Race 8
8 – Invest – another yawner but an important one as we’ll be using as a single to kick off the late pick-5. Linda Rice had him cranked in the slop two weeks back, and he was about to reward the barn until he veered out in the lane and got DQ’d to second. That said, he appears just be faster than this bunch and I think he finds his way home this afternoon (hopefully in a straight line this time). 8-6-3
Race 9
13 – Playwright – another off-turf, another main-track only for me! This one loves the wet surface (3: 1-1-0), the distance (4: 0-3-0), AND Belmont (5: 2-2-0), and appears to have the nice late-kick that comes in handy in larger fields. If the pace heats up at all, look for him flying late. 13-5-9
Race 10 – The Fort Marcy – G3, $150k
2 – Robert Bruce – deserving favorite coming off the layoff after a disappointing Breeder’s Cup turf attempt. Chad Brown is great in these spots (30% off 180+) and this horse is just too tough to keep out of the win spot. Will be keying in Pick 5, but also including the mysterious Brazilian import in the outside gate. 2-9-6
Race 11 – The Westchester – G3, $200k
4 – Stan the Man – going to take a crack against the big favorite in here with the John Terranova speedster. He’s coming off a bad effort 3/9 at Aqueduct, but the works have been hot and heavy in the interim and he could be sitting on a big one at a price. Will play him to win and likely use a few in the pick 5, most notably Prince Lucky on the outside. 4-8-7
Race 12
1 – Little Big Risk – not a great finale here, but I’ll roll with the inside Charlton Baker entrant who is coming off a nice rallying 2nd from the way-outside draw. Maybe moving inside for a barn that does well with maiden claimers is a recipe for graduation in only start #3? Spreading to close the pick 5 as well. 1-13-3
2019 Belmont
Week 1 (4/27) – 9: 0-0-3, -100% ROI ($18 wagered, zero returned)