11/23- Picks and Analysis for Aqueduct
Bankroll: $50.00
Overall :-$117.75
Top Pick Results: 15-3-3-5
Race 1- 5,3,2
Apello made up a ton of ground after starting slow in his debut. With this being his 2nd start, he should show a bit of improvement and with the outside post he should get a very solid trip. Also Manny Franco back in the Irons is a plus.
$5 Win on #5
$1 Pick 3 5/2,4/6 ($2 Total)
Race 2– 2,4,6
Hit a Provisional gets Manny Franco back in the Irons today and with the other speed in this race should sit right behind the leaders early.
Salt Pond will most likely be the favorite here and rightfully so. Her last 2 turf races are good enough to win here today, but I don’t see her getting loose on the lead so will try and beat her on top.
Enthusiastic Gal has run well at this distance and is 6 for 7 finishing in the money so far in 2018. She finished 2nd at this class last time out and I am expecting another solid performance today, but too inconsistent for me to use on top.
$0.50 Trifecta Box -2,4,6 ($3.00 Total)
$2 Double -2,4/1,5,6 ($12 Total)
Race 3- 6,1,5,
Morelikelythannot is one of 2 Chad Brown runners here who both look very tough in here. I am going with Morelikelythannot over Kasbach on top here as in her previous 2 starts she has started from farther outside and has nearly won both starts, today breaking form the 6 post I think the saving of ground early will be made up late.
Aspen Summer for Bill Mott with Jose Ortiz in the Irons in my opinion is the most likely winner if the 2 Chad Brown horses do not show up. I will be including this one on all my Multi tickets.
$0.50 Trifecta Box -1,5,6 ($3.00 Total)
$5 Win bet on #6
Race 6- 12,2,5,10
Goodbye Brockley has been coming late in all 6 starts in 2018, and with an outside post today she should be coming late again today. She gets Seaz back in the Irons who has been on her for both her wins in 2018.
Kreesie is stepping up in class today, but every time Donk has stretched her out she has responded well, so expecting her to be there at a price today.
$5 Win on #12
Race 7- 6,9,7,1
Breaking the Rules has run his best 2 career races on the turf, and I think he fits perfectly with this group today. He gets Irad back in the irons and is coming off a solid win back on October 6th.
Mr Ritz gets Jose Ortize in the Irons and is shipping in from Woodbine for trainer Josie Carroll. He defeated Untamed Domain back on September 5th and looks to be one of the main pace players in todays race.
I am a huge fan of Therapist and I hope he runs well today, but I am not a fan of Cohen in the Irons. I will include him on my multi’s as he should be a price.
Prioritize would’ve been my top selection if Dylan Davis was still in the Irons. Not that Saez is a bad change, but I prefer Saez on horses who sit closer to the pace, while Prioritize runs well from a bit farther back so I am worried Saez might just be too aggressive early on this one.
$6 Win on #6
$2 Exacta Box 6,9 ($4 Total)
Race 9- 6,2,1.4
Kept True should benefit today from the cutback in distance to 6F and I think that makes the difference. She had the lead late in her last race at 1 mile, but had to settle for 3rd has she ran out of gas late. She gets Maragh back in the irons who has been on fire early so far this meet winning at roughly 26%.
Take Me to Hardoon ran against BCJV Filly winner Jaywalk last time out and had no chance after the start. Today adds blinkers and get class relief today, I would not toss this one out of your multi’s.
If the track is muddy, Saloon Girl is sired by Alpha and should love the muddy going.
$5 Win on #6
Race 10 – 4,3,7,1
Blamed is coming off a 2nd place finish in the G2 Raven Run to Shamrock Rose who went on to win the Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Sprint. She is stretching out today but looks to be the controlling pace. If she is loose on the lead early she will be tough to catch.
War Cabinet is going from turf to dirt for Shug today and the only question here is if she will take to the dirt as she has already proven distance is not an issue. I also like the jockey change to Jose on the dirt today for her.
$5 Win on #4