Race 1
2 – Digital Footprint – coming off the long layoff, but both career starts came at the spa and the second of which has produced some serious racehorses. Of the two Chad Brown entries in here, I will lean with the one Irad rides and hope the breakthrough comes in start #3. 2-4-1
Race 2
5 – Archumybaby – the coupled-entry will be tough in here, especially Fair Regis, but I like this spot for the 5yo Linda Rice mare. She is 6 for 8 ITM at Belmont and has two wins at today’s distance, and most importantly has proven the stalk and pounce style works for her on occasion. Surely not the most likely winner, but there could be a setup at a price for some good connections. Big exacta with the 1. 5-1-4
Race 3
6 – Gattino Marrone – well that switch to the Rudy barn sure helped huh? Took some time off after the winter at the Big A and stormed home for the maiden win in the first career turf try. Rudy connects on 25% of his runners coming off wins, and it feels like the move to the grass will elevate this one for sure. 6-4-7
Race 4
2 – Go Big Or Go Home – draws the two hole in a race with tons of early speed, and I think he has a big chance to sit off and pounce. He’s been training well at Saratoga since early May, and got boat-raced by a nice horse last out before running second. Price will be very fair today. 2-6-1
Race 5
8 – War Treaty – ran three nice races over the winter down in New Orleans, but that was under the watchful eye of the Steve Asmussen barn. The first try off the layoff, this time for trainer Louis Linder, was a disappointing 5th at Monmouth but he’ll pick up the white-hot Jose Lezcano (26% in 2019) today and draw outside in a field of 8.
Race 6
1 – Parlapiano – disappointed many in the last attempt as the heavy chalk, but that was over a sloppy track and she clearly doesn’t like the wet surface (0 for 4 lifetime). Won’t be an issue today, as the track should play fast and she draws inside with a chance to get nice early position. Took some time after the April defeat and should be live today at a nice price. 1-6-5
Race 7
2 – Prognostication – looks like a strong favorite in here for Chad Brown; hasn’t missed the exacta in four tries over the Belmont lawn and has enough speed to wire them if he so chooses. There is a little speed to his outside, so if they book it from the bell I can see a nice stalking trip as well. Irad will certainly have him rolling down the lane, and I will use as a single in the late pick 5. 2-1-9
Race 8
10 – Collins Ave – I love the outside draw for a late-runner in this spot, as I can see a hot pace developing. The starting gate is on the first turn here, so that is a bit concerning… but Lezcano sat a similar trip over the same course two weeks back, and I think he will find the money this time around. Also, my last name is Collins and I’m not getting beat by my own last name. So maybe ignore any insight I just provided considering the conflict of interest… 10-4-6
Race 9
6 – Pauseforthecause – Kiaran McLaughlin appears to have this one locked and loaded today coming out of two bullet works and eight consecutive ITM finishes. She’s 7: 3-1-3 at the distance in her career, draws outside and can sit off the speed that Leah’s Dream and Out of Orbit. Top pick for the day. 6-4-2
Race 10
6 – Bunyan’s Axe – in a field of unlucky maidens, this one really runs hard huh? If we can forgive the last try, you’ll find six solid attempts in a row dating back to Christmas last year for a trainer that does very well in these claiming ranks. He’s shown nice early zip and I think he’ll be prominently involved as they turn for home, so why not take a swing at a price that should stay close to the 8-1 ML? 6-5-9
2019 Belmont
Week 1 (4/27) – 9: 0-0-3, -100% ROI ($18 wagered, zero returned)
Week 2 (5/4) – 12: 3-2-1, -44.5% ROI ($24 wagered, $13.30 returned)
Week 3 (5/18) – 12: 2-2-4, -50.4% ROI ($24 wagered, $11.90 returned)
Week 4 (6/8) – 11: 3-2-1, -56.8% ($22 wagered, $9.50 returned)
Total – 44: 8-6-9, -60.6% ROI ($88 wagered, $34.70 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 246: 59-43-33, -24.2% ($492 wagered, $372.90 returned)
Win Rate = 24%
ITM Rate = 54.9%