I have been asked to write an overview for the Belmont meet. Most of the previews you will see will tout the usual (top jockeys, Chad Brown on turf, etc). However, I have decided to try to identify a few angles and thoughts that many may not think about when playing Big Sandy. Enjoy and as always, feel free to hit me up on twitter @jailmovemaster.
Jockeys
Every horse player knows the big names. They know the Ortiz Brothers will hit at their usual 25% rate. They know Castellano will be on the overpriced Chad Brown horses and Joel Rosario will have his streaks. However it is important to know “the other” jockeys and when to have confidence in them.
Trivia Question- What distance and what jockey has the highest ROI at Belmont over the past 5 years. Ortiz? No. Castellano? No. How about local legend Manny Franco? No. The answer is Junior Alvarado at the mile distance. It is why I have dubbed him “The Mile Master”. It is amazing what Junior does on this track at this distance regardless of the surface. Do not count him out on any mount at the mile distance.
Dylan Davis- He is probably one of the most underrated jockeys on the circuit. He has the unreal knack of getting a horse in the money, regardless of the odds of the horse. If you are looking for someone to wheel underneath, here is your guy. I have won many big tris just by wheeling a 30-1 shot with him aboard underneath. Don’t believe me? Just go through the charts of his races the last month and look at his success rate of getting horses ITM at big prices.
Kendrick Carmouche- I will talk about him more later as he is one of my favorite jockeys on any circuit. He is one of the most aggressive jockeys on a circuit not known for its early aggression. This allows him to steal races; often at respectable prices. He was becoming one of the meets top jocks before suffering a bad injury. Now that he is back, the public may have forgot how good he was. Now is the time to jump on him before everyone remembers.
Trainers
Everyone knows about the Chad Browns and the Todd Pletchers. Even the locals know about Jason Servis’, Linda Rice, and Rudy Rodriguez. What about some of the other trainers that do not get as much hype that you need to look out for?
David Donk, Michelle Nevin and Chris Englehart are all trainers to watch out for. They have a tendency to win at a high percentage, especially when getting a new horse in their barn. David Donk especially is a wiz first off the claim.
Rob Atras – He has quickly become a big name in New York. The former Diodoro assistant has taken over his barn and has won at an unreal clip. It will be interesting to see if the success continues as the competition improves. One thing to look out for is jockey Angel Arroyo. As of now, he is not riding in New York but Arroyo was winning at roughly a 30% clip for Diodoro. If Arroyo comes back to NY and rides for Atras, you may see some nice prices on horses since most people will not pick up on the connections.
Danny Gargan- He is one of my favorite trainers on the circuit. He has been successful for awhile, especially with Midwest Thoroughbred horses. However, they had a falling out for awhile. Apparently they have let bygones be bygones and are now back in business. Watch out for Gargan’s Midwest horses; especially when their go-to jockey, Kendrick Carmouche is riding. This is one of my favorite Jock/Trainer combos of all time.
Handicapping Angles / Thoughts
New York Breds on Turf – This is an area you NEED to keep an eye on. Many NY based turf horses do not travel during the winter due to travel cost. This means that trainers are forced to do one of the following:
- Run on dirt races to try to make some money for monthly fees
- Shut the horse down for the winter
If a trainer does the latter, you need to see how the trainer does on long layoffs and how the horse has done in the past off a similar layoff. Some horses have shown a history of running in October / November then winning right off the bench in April/May. You can play these with confidence. Others may have a history of needing a race or two. These are horses you need to track as when they are ready to win, they will likely be a nice price after a bad finish first off the claim.
If a trainer decides to run a horse on the dirt throughout the winter, there might be an opportunity to cash in when they come back to the dirt. You will be surprised at how many people will toss out a horse because he has not run a step for six months on dirt. What the public does not understand is that these races are being used by the trainer to keep the horse in shape and hopefully take down a purse. They have no intention of winning the race. They are waiting for turf season.
With young horses, look for horses that might have debuted on the turf and had an excuse (bad start, traffic, distance, etc) and now are returning to run on the green. Once again, some handicappers may look at the horses last 3 dirt tries over the winter and think he can’t run. However, they have been waiting for the Spring to let loose on a horse. For a horse that has only run on dirt, look to see if the pedigree says grass. It is possible they were using those dirt races as prep races and waiting for this spot.
Main Track Only Races – Some handicappers hear that if turf races are taken off a card, they will look the other way. I on the other hand see opportunity. In fact some of my biggest hits have come on MTO days. The reason for this is that the amount of “Dead Money” in the pools is amazing. I can’t begin to tell you how many times a Chad Brown horse that should be 1/5 on turf is even money on the dirt…and has no shot to win. When playing MTO races, obviously look for the horses with dirt form (usually the MTO horses). Also look for horses with slop breeding (Union Rags, Ghostzapper, etc). The amount of 20-1 MTOs that come in the money is unreal.
Spring vs Summer meet – You need to understand and try to get inside the head of owners and trainers. For most of the meet, trainers are trying to win (make sense). However, the last week to week and a half of the meet there are a lot of trainers dropping horses. These big drops look suspect but in reality they are trainers that do not want to ship the horses up to Saratoga. Look at the amount of claims that take place the last two weeks of the meet. It is unreal. While a good handicapper can identify a good drop from a bad drop (usually due to trainer habits) it is important to separate the last couple of weeks as an anomaly. These types win often as trainers want to win and dump.
Shippers- Watch early in the meet how horses from Tampa, Keeneland and Churchill are performing. You usually can tell real quick, regardless of form which shippers are going to be live and which will be up against it.
Track Bias– This is something any good handicapper takes note of. The best take advantage of this after the first couple of races. A track bias usually takes place after it has rained (or if it has not rained in awhile). At Belmont, the track trends are usually noticeable immediately and you need to adjust based on these track trends. This can happen on dirt or turf (although the dirt is more likely).
Aggression on Turf Races- On a typical 10 race card with 5 turf races, at least one turf races is usually won on the front end. For some reason, most jockeys are not aggressive on the turf. This leads to many wins, often at generous prices to horses going wire to wire. It is more likely that you will see this on the route races.
Big Races
The Belmont Stakes day is a great day with great racing. If you have not gone there live yet, it is a must. This year might be a good year to try it out as I do not expect a possible Triple Crown winner. It is important to watch the Derby Day undercard. I have won many races off of watching those replays and horses running back at this spot.
Stars and Stripes Days (July 5th and 6th) is another great card with many Graded Stakes. It will include the first ever installment of the Turf Triple Crown Series. The Turf Triple Crown Series will include The Turf Trinity, The Saratoga Derby and the Jockey Club Derby.
I feel like there are a ton of other little tidbits I could offer. If you want, feel free to tweet me and ask if I am around. You can usually find me at Belmont on a given weekend.
Let’s have a great meet. Let’s have some fun. Let’s get em.