Welcome back to another Saturday at the Big A! We have nine races to dive into today, and the weather looks like we’ll get a fair track. Good luck to everyone playing!
Best Win Bets: Race 2 : #4, Questeq & Race 8: #2, Hit It Once More
Best Doubles: Race 2: 4 / 1,6 & Race 8: 2,5 / 9
Best Exacta: Race 8 : 2-5
Early Pick 5 ( Race #1) .50 – 2,5,6 / 2,4,5 / 1,2,6 / 1 / 2,7,8 = $40.50
Race 1
6 – Dr. Burt – never really got rolling in the debut, but that was in MSW company and he’s dropping into MCL ranks today for a barn that is 3 for 5 in such scenarios. Adding blinkers is a plus, hoping he breaks clean and finds a better trip in the second try.
5 – Flat Rate – Rudy gets this colt for the first time after claiming off Pletcher, and he’s hitting with 31% of his debut runners. Similar MSW to MCL drop as my top choice, an angle which should pay dividends in this field.
2 – Gallant Bid – the debut was so bad for Linda Rice that the price should be very fair for a barn that connects on 32% of their second-time maidens. $65k purchase coming back in two weeks is a nice sign as well.
Race 2
4 – Questeq – loves both the distance (3 for 4 ITM) and the local oval (4 for 6 ITM), and the last two starts have produced two nice results. Took care of business in a $25k claimer on the front-end over a fast track two back, and though the competition stiffens here she did run a nice second in the slop against similar last-out. Note the bullet work on 2/26 and the lack of much early zip in this field.
2 – Volodina – ships in from Kentucky and makes the barn-debut for Juan Carlos Guerrero, who hits with 18% of his debut runners. Nice win in the slop over today’s distance at Churchill two back, and had a wide trip against ALW company in the last. Could appreciate the move back to New York.
5 – Hexameter – she’s been off-form this winter but comes with plenty of experience at this level. Consistent trainer could send this one off at a price, and for that reason I’ll play underneath primarily.
Race 3
1 – Dirtyfoot – has been sharp in the last four races, breaking the maiden three back at Laurel at 5 & ½ furlongs. There appears to be tons of early speed in here, and he’s shown the ability to stalk a hot pace. The inside draw could set him up to save ground and come running down the lane.
6 – Sharpe and Ready – gets a nice outside draw and has some early zip, but could find himself in the thick of it with this bunch. Still, the 2/20 work was sharp and he drops back into a more manageable field.
2 – Seethisquick – inside draw and tons of speed. The way this track has carried speed all winter, added with the nice price you’ll likely get with this one, feels like a must-use just in case the last effort was a sign of things to come.
Race 4
1 – Bel Cuore – appears to be the class in a pretty weak field; draws inside with the chance to break quickly and never look back. Adds blinkers for the first time and has worked nicely four times since the last start in late-January.
2 – Gemini Witch – terrible in debut at 6-1 odds for Jason Servis, but in a field like this I’m not taking his runner out of the exacta.
3 – Pennys From Heaven – first-timer doesn’t have much in the pedigree, but goes out for an experienced trainer and Alvarado takes the mount.
Race 5
2 – Promise Me Roses – coming off two straight wins for the red-hot Atras barn, this one has shown some versatility and could find herself in a nice spot near the rail today. Noteworthy that Alvarado chooses to stay on over the 8.
7 – Jump for Joy – always shows up and does so near the lead en route to 9 for 12 ITM, and comes in second-off the layoff today after a game second against similar last-out.
8 – Two Hot Betty – closed nicely last-out and got the money, and could get a similar set-up here from the outside draw. Barn hits at 26% with runners coming off a win.
Race 6
3 – Ladyberg – has had two troubled breaks from the gate to begin her career, and the second try was a total wash. The debut, however, featured a promising late kick and maybe today is the day to put it all together?
7 – Rose of Dublin – has been a close on a few occasions and despite not being close the winner last-out, the effort in that spot could be best in here today with a pace to run at.
4 – Thinkingofglenn – showed speed in the debut before being totally gobbled up by the field, but put up a very nice work on 2/23 and the second start could bring more luck at what should be a generous price.
Race 7
2 – Orchid Party – draws inside in a field that has two big favorites, both of which with speed. This one can move as well, and she’s 9 for 10 ITM over this track and 5 for 5 ITM at today’s distance. The last two starts have been tough, but at the price I’ll take a swing that she breaks and doesn’t look back.
4 – Miss Hot Stones – also will likely show speed, but has the ability to sit just off and pounce. With the possible speed duel between the 2 and 5, the setup could be hers for the taking. Too short of a price for me though.
5 – Spring Drama – the likely favorite has ran two big races in as many tries, and could be breathing down the neck of my top choice early. Only has the one career win, though, and at the price I’ll keep in the trifecta but try to beat in the top two spots.
Race 8
2 – Hit It Once More – was working nicely into the last start but broke poorly and never had a chance. In the race prior he drew outside, was hung out wide on the first turn and didn’t have enough. He put up another nice work on 2/23 and draws inside today. If he breaks, he should get the lead and give them a run for it at a very generous price.
5 – Weather Wiz – the concern for my top choice likely starts here, as this one can put the pressure on if he so chooses. Both wins came on or near the lead, so I expect him to be right up there. The price will be short, and with the added distance I’ll try to beat the one going off even money doing something for the first time.
1 – Leitone – he does have one start at today’s distance, draws inside and should sit near the lead. Lezcano gets the mount for the first time as the horse ships in from Laurel where he tried stakes company.
Race 9
9 – Its All Relevant – stalker is 2 for 5 locally and 4 for 8 at today’s distance. Should get a nice pace setup in here as the likely second choice.
4 – Planet Trailblazer – Servis will likely have this one cranked again, going for the fourth straight win in as many starts for this barn. Keeps him at the same level after winning easily last-out, I’m just banking on my top choice getting the jump on him here.
5 – Zap Zap Zap – strictly an underneath play for me, as he’s hit the board in 3 of 5 at the distance. Can’t see him winning, but rounding out the tri or super for sure.
2018-2019 Aqueduct Top Selections (as of 2/23/19)
- Week 1 (10/20, Belmont) – 11: 5-2-1, 87.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $41.30 returned)
- Week 2 (11/3) – 10: 2-3-1, -47% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.60 returned)
- Week 3 (11/10) – 8: 1-3-1, -54% ROI ($16 wagered, $7.40 returned)
- Week 4 (11/17) – 7: 1-1-1, -73.5% ROI ($14 wagered, $3.70 returned)
- Week 5 (11/24) – 9: 3-1-0, 63.8 % ROI ($18 wagered, $29.50 returned)
- Week 6 (12/1) – 10: 2-1-3, -60.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $7.90 returned)
- Week 7 (12/8) – 9: 3-2-2, -32.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $12.20 returned)
- Week 8 (12/15) – 9: 2-2-0, 37.7% ROI ($18 wagered, $24.80 returned)
- Week 9 (12/22) – 9: 0-2-1, -100% ROI ($18 wagered, zero returned)
- Week 10 (12/29) – 9: 3-1-1, 12.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $20.20 returned)
- Week 11 (1/5) – 8: 2-1-0, -8% ROI ($16 wagered, $14.70 returned)
- Week 12 (1/26) – 10: 2-0-0, 3.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $20.70 returned)
- Week 13 (2/2) – 10: 2-4-0, -48.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.30 returned)
- Week 14 (2/9) – 9: 2-1-1, -20% ROI ($18 wagered, $14.40 returned)
- Week 15 (2/16) – 9: 1-2-0, -36.6% ROI ($18 wagered, $11.40 returned)
- Week 16 (2/23) – 9: 1-1-1, -65% ROI ($18 wagered, $6.30 returned)
- Total: 146: 33-27-13, -19.4% ROI ($292 wagered, $235.40 returned)
- Win Rate = 21.9%
- ITM Rate = 49.3%