Aqueduct Racing Analysis — Thursday, November 22, 2018, by Chris Felts

Race 1: 2-5-6-1

#2 Galadriel’s Light will appreciate the drop from a stakes race as well as a less crowded field. Linda Rice and Irad Ortiz have a 17% win rate so far at Aqueduct and 29% on the year. A 69 Beyer figure for #5 Lem Me Have It last time out suggests she will be pretty tough here in a race that has a Beyer par of 58. #6 Awesome Alana could respond well to the added distance with a solid Jockey/Trainer combination.

 

Race 2: 2-5-3-6

#2 Elizabeth Nicole was never challenged in her last race, adds $2,000 in claiming price but expect a similar result here. Also note her last work was pretty solid too. #5 Orchid Party sees a nice price drop and should fare well on a fast track, finished in front of Shanghai Glory last time out. #3 Shanghai Glory seems like a good fit for this spot and will like a fast track compared to sloppy last time out plus the numbers are pretty solid for trainer Chris Englehart.

 

Race 3: 6-2-8-10 AE pick: 11

We again see Linda Rice and Irad Ortiz pair up on #6 Worth a Shot who certainly is worth a shot his first time out. Gelding is related to Voodoo Song (8-14, 864k over turf). #2 Wicked Grin has 2 very positive turf races under his belt, especially the Saratoga race on a firm turf, and is a serious contender here… #8 Exchange Fever gets another shot on turf after the off track race with Eric Cancel, who is 5 for 15 with his barn in 2018.

 

Race 4: 7-3-8-5

Rudy Rodriguez is 30% with 1st time claimers which is good news for #7 Party on Prospect. He got bumped at the start last time and was no impact so will need a clean start but should have no problem running with this company. Linda Rice shows some impressive numbers in this spot which will also be good news for #3 Red Fox, another solid Jockey/Trainer combination. #8 Hot Sriracha is the morning line favorite because of the drop in class but was eased back late by Irad Ortiz, although he should have a strong showing here.

 

Race 5: 1-3-7-6

#1 Dark Ops is the clear favorite in this race and sure looks fit enough with several works since his last race. I can’t see him getting beat today. Toss the turf races and the form brightens for #3 Blame the Thief who certainly has speed to flash in this spot… Joel Rosario had a chance to feel out #7 Hokelua last time out and ran a bullet in his last work.

 

Race 6: 8-9-4-6 AE: 14

#8 Letterman gets a huge class drop as well as a switch from MSW to MCL for a trainer that is 29% when he makes that switch… #9 also sees a class drop and trainer Patrick Reynolds is 28% with first time claimers… Jose Lezcano jumps back on #4 Wisely for another horse that sees a class drop and will be well rested as he switches back to turf.

 

Race 7- The Central Park Stakes: 5-1-6-3

#5 Empire of War comes off 2 straight wins, including another 100k stakes last time out and may have to deal with a firm turf but has every reason to keep improving… #1 Law and Order should enjoy a firm turf and will have to be watched late after his last effort… #6 Good Good is the higher price for trainer Todd Pletcher but gets blinkers (26%) as he returns to this circuit after a poor showing at Kentucky Downs.

 

Race 8- The Fall Highweight Handicap (G3): 2-4-9-1

#2 Lewisfield has held good form over 15 months and comes off a stakes win at Laurel in October… the last 3 beyers are nice and odds are he will be able to handle this footing… #4 Celtic Chaos is 6 for 10 in the exacta at this trip but does have the tendency to let horses get ahead early… #9 Heartwood should be able to handle this track for the first time after a second place finish in a stakes race at Churchill.

 

Race 9- The Winter Memories Stakes: 11-8-2-4

#11 Significant Form is coming off a layoff of 96 days but Chad Brown is 29% off 61-180 day layoff and Irad/Brown on turf is never a bad bet… note a very similar race here in April where she wired the field… #8 Capla Temptress drops from graded stakes where hopefully she can find some footing and has a sharp work last week… #2  Bellerue will run in a stakes race for the first time, but has speed and has been able to win going this far.

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