Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves pumpkin spice, snow ball fights, sarcasm, and a good cuddle. He hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge.
Fade me.
Race Two: 1:28 post – Allowance 82000n2X 7F 3YO&Up
7-1-2-5
This looks to be a match race of sorts as #1 Copper Bullet and #7 Honorable Treasure seem to tower over the rest of the field. I suppose that #2 Knights Key could give them a little bit of a scare as the pace dynamics of this race set up for him as the lone closer entered. Copper Bullet returns to the track after 15 months off, an angle I am never pumped to endorse. Honorable Treasure ran a nice second in Audible’s return on Breeders’ Cup Saturday here at Churchill Downs. His race that day was plenty good enough to win, and I expect him to do so today.
Race Three: 1:57 post – Claiming 10000 7F Mile 3YO&Up
5-6-7-2
One step up from a bottom rung claimer, three horses stand out in a race chock-full of smaller trainers. #6 Mutation sure loves the Churchill Downs track as he has finished in the money 6/7 times under the Twin Spires, including a win last out under almost identical conditions. He’s a threat. #7 Karma Delight was claimed by Loooch for twice the price at Saratoga back in August and he lowers him to a spot where he can certainly threaten. Looch deserves a little Karma this week (get well Pops!), but I can’t ignore my favorite racing angle. #5 Coleman Rocky won his last race at the 5K claiming level last out here at Churchill, was claimed from the Ramseys out of that race, and then gelded by the new connections. I expect a big run today.
Race Four: 2:27 post – Claiming 30000b 1 Mile 3YO&Up
2-7-6-3
#7 Gettysburg has had a career of never running to his closing odds as he is a bit of a name horse. We’ll try to beat him again today. Aaron Shorter moves #6 Tres Equis way up the claiming ladder off of his last effort on 10/25/18. That last race looks to be a career best based on figures and it’s hard to imagine he improves much moving to a new lesser-experienced barn. #2 Grandpa Knows Best has won three out of four at Churchill Downs and is entered in his third race in this form cycle. Kenny McPeek places his horse well as he moves him up the claiming ladder after winning his last race on Halloween. Brian Hernandez stays aboard for the ride and the picture taking.
Race Five: 2:57 post – Claiming 8000b 7F Turf 3YO&Up
10-2-6-7
#2 Hawk showed some early speed and fade after a three month return to the track for Dallas Stewart and Brian Hernandez on 11/8/18. Stewart wheels him right back a little lower on the claiming ladder in a spot where he can definitely win. #6 Florida Boys is the ML favorite after winning his last race here at Churchill Downs on 11/8/18 at identical conditions, so he obviously makes sense. #10 Flat Out Fast is an improving sort for owner/trainer Kellyn Gorder. He has been failing higher up the claiming ranks lately, but the 11/12 workout and the rider upgrade to Ricardo Santana Jr. signal a move towards the winner’s circle today. He will need to improve a little bit, but his affinity for Churchill Downs is also a little bit of a confidence boost.
Race Six: 3:27 post – MC 30000 6F 2YO Fillies
9-8-1-2
#1 Hawt Mess is the ML favorite in a wide open affair of 2YO claiming fillies. Though she is the most likely winner, I can’t stomach chalk at this level. If the 4% FTS stats of Steve Margolis weren’t so negative for #2 Twins Plus a Dot, I could get behind this filly as she has certainly been worked well in the morning. I always love seeing gate works before a first start, but I can’t put her on top. I can’t resist taking a shot with #8 First to Dance for Ben Colebrook and Albin Jimenez. Colebrook shortens her up one panel as she has been flattening in the stretch. My top pick is #9 Take Charge Gina for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux. A string of solid works, several from the gate, and gaudy FTS statistics all point to success against a field where it won’t take much to win.
Race Seven: 3:57 post – OC 62500n2X 1 1/8 Turf Mile 3YO&Up
2-9-3-4
I really tried to find a way to beat #2 Markitoff, but I just can’t. I’d like to find a creative angle and poke holes in her running lines, but the truth is that most of these entrants have never run a race within five lengths of her. Joel Rosario takes the mount for Michael Maker I am heavily singling her as my most likely winner of the day.
Race Eight: 4:27 post – Allowance 10000s 7F 3YO&Up
3-4-1-6
The coupled entry of #1 Jerrid and #1A Esposito loom large as the ML favorite, but I am looking elsewhere for the winner. #4 Drunken Fridays is more than a hunch play after the Thanksgiving holiday, he is a real threat. Three morning works since his last race indicates that Philip Bauer has kept him in training and tightened him up. I landed on #3 Mineyerownmalone for David Vance and Corey Lanerie. This is his third race since being claimed on 9/21 and the 11/12 workout at Churchill Downs points me in the right direction. He also loves Churchill.
Race Nine: 4:57 post – Allowance 78500n1x 1 Mile 3YO&Up
16-8-9-10
This was the most challenging race of the day, so I am taking the highest ML price horse of my likeliest winners. #8 Mo’s Mojo is the ML favorite and he certainly deserves it. #9 Amiral hasn’t embarrassed himself in his two career races his two November workouts tell me that he is tight. I am going to take my shot with #16 Naples Trader. This lightly-raced colt has won his only two races, both at Churchill Downs, for Doug Anderson. Sure, they were claiming races, but he has won both by daylight. I think today is the day we see if he belongs at a higher level. At a 20/1 ML, which we surely won’t get, I am willing to put him on top.
Race Ten: 5:27 post – Mrs. Revere G2 1 1/16 Mile Turf 3Yo Fillies
10-5-6-8
#5 Cool Beans will again try to take them wire-to-wire, but I can’t get away from #10 Stella di Camelot. Joel Rosario spends the day at Churchill Downs for this Chad Brown runner. This is Brown’s second race with her since coming over from France, and she did everything he asked of her in her first race in the U.S.A. I also love that she has worked out four times since her first race.
Race Eleven: 5:56 post – Clark Handicap 1 1/8 Mile 3YO&Up
3-5-6-1
On paper, this edition of the Clark Handicap is a little thin on Grade One winners. Many will be backing #6 Bravazo on name alone, but he certainly threatens in this spot given his love for Churchill Downs. #5 Leofric is certainly a huge threat coming in off of his G2 win in the Fayette at Keeneland on 10/27. He has been in the money in his last eleven starts for Brad Cox and Florent Geroux, but I have him in second place today. #3 Seeking the Soul absolutely loves Churchill Downs as indicated by his 9-3-2-2 record. Though he was beaten by City of Light in the Breeders’ Cup Mile on 11/3, he was daylight ahead of the rest of that field. Dallas Stewart putting Johnnie V back up certainly helps the cause.
Race Twelve: 6:24 post – MSW 76K 7 ½ F 3YO&Up
1-7-4-6
#4 Presidential Tweet has more than a funny, he has a huge shot for Ian Wilkes and Chris Landeros. He ran into a pretty good MSW field in his first race at Keeneland and he should do better today against this weaker crowd. #7 New Colossus has two recent seconds in MSW races here at Churchill Downs for Larry Jones. Today makes three. #1 Franknjymme has had two nice workouts for Charlie LoPresti since his last race at Keeneland on 10/18. He showed a lot of improvement in his last race and he gets Johnnie V for today’s closing race. I look for JV to take the late daily double.