Welcome back to Del Mar! We had a good weekend last week, posting 2 winners in the first 3 races, both paying over $10, before cooling off in the back half of the card. We’re still holding down a positive ROI so far, but let’s try to keep the ball rolling and string together a few profitable selections!
Edit: Del Mar received substantial rainfall Wednesday into Thursday of this week, and cancelled racing on Thursday due to the weather. Just as I finished the writeup assuming fast and firm, I received a text stating we will be OFF the turf on Friday. I have re-done the analysis now assuming off the turf, but without knowing scratches it is difficult to say. Follow along @CalebWVU on Twitter for live updates once scratches are posted!
Last week: 25% (2/8 win, 4/8 ITM), $2.98 ROI per $2 win bet ($16 wagered, $23.80 returned)
Del Mar 2019: 37% (16/43 win, 31/43 ITM) $2.53 ROI per $2 win bet ($86 wagered, $109 returned)
Race 1: Clm 8000 1 Mile
Picks: 6-1-4-2
We begin the card with a race that I’d probably skip if it wasn’t the start of the early pick 5. A field of 6 lines up for an $8000 claiming race, none of whom are very impressive on paper. It is truly difficult to like anyone in this field, but I reluctantly landed on #6 Puriano. Joe Talamo has been chasing his 2000th career win for quite a while now, as he’s has a cold start to this Del Mar meet. He’s a much better jockey than his line indicates (1 for 21), so I expect some positive regression to the mean before he departs for Oaklawn. Puriano is an off-the-pace type in a race where 3 others need the lead, so I think he should get an honest pace to run into from an outside stalking position. Papaprodromou is off to a hot start, with 2 winners from 8 starters already, and this 6-year-old gelding has yet to try 2 turns, so there is some untapped potential there. #1 Miracle March finally broke through with his second career win 2 back when placed in a more realistic spot in a claiming race. Allowance company was clearly too tough to him. The recent layoffs followed by the clunker at Los Alamitos last out makes this one a bit of a head-scratcher, but he should appreciate seeing 2 turns again and is the best horse in this field when he is right. Only reason he isn’t the top pick is that he projects to catch a lot of pace pressure with the rail draw and figures to be one who needs the lead to run his best. #4 For Him has been in dreadful form since leaving the D’Amato barn, but he has been facing tougher and his 2 tries routing at the Del Mar main track were some of his best efforts. Could get bold if he manages to outbreak the other leaders and gets the right trip.
Race 2: MC 80000 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 6-5-2-3
#6 Bamboozler was scheduled to make his turf debut last out when he clipped heels at the start and lost the rider. He took some money that day at 6-1, suggesting he was well-meant, and Twirling Candy progeny handle all surfaces quite well. Encouraging that Pereira sticks after the incident, and he’s been hot at Del Mar this summer. In his debut on dirt he was far from embarrassed when running an even fourth to subsequent Del Mar Futurity winner (albeit it in usual fashion) Nucky. #5 Best Chance actually ran a competitive race for a half mile last out on the dirt before fading when setting a moderate pace. In a race that lacks a true leader, I think his experience over the dirt coupled with his tactical speed could make him dangerous. #2 Handsome Michael also possesses dangerous early speed. While he has never ran a race quite fast enough to win in his 2 career starts, he pressed a fast pace last out at Santa Anita before tiring badly late. Blinkers go on here, and there’s little doubt what his game plan will be with Maldonado on board; send hard and send early and make them catch you. There doesn’t project to be a ton of obvious speed here, and this one did pass a few in his debut indicating he can rate if need be. He’s a logical pick in a tough race. #1 Mulholland Highway will take money due to the fact Prat takes the mount, but I tend to take a wait-and-see approach with first time starters going 2 turns, especially when entered for a tag in their debut. Could be live, but I’ll let him beat me at a short price.
Race 3: [F]Mdn 52k 1 Mile
Picks: 6-1-4-2
The parade of chalk seems likely to continue through race 3. #6 Saralin looked as if she was destined to be a runaway winner until Gingham exploded in the stretch to win easily. While not truly threatening the winner, Saralin was over 5 lengths clear of the show horse that day. She now adds Lasix, a strong move for the Callaghan barn (29%), and she took a lot of dirt in that debut effort on a day when not too many horses at Santa Anita were taking the kickback and going on to win. I think she will get a lot out of that effort. Clearly some lofty expectations as this miss was purchased for $1.3 million. #1 Rare Find ran a pretty strong effort in her debut, breaking slowly and rallying form last for a decent fourth. The place horse, Gingham, went on to break her maiden next out when defeating today’s favorite Saralin. Prat lands on another, but Cedillo is a very competent rider who I would expect tries to get this one involved a little earlier. Mandella is 35% with horses making their second start around 2 turns; a major player. #4 Storie Blue is a bit of an anomaly at her 8-1 morning line. A Bob Baffert 2-year-old first-time starter with Drayden on board at 8-1? Obviously that line won’t hold, but it’s high enough to suggest this horse may not truly be one of Baffert’s elite. Worth noting that for all his success with maidens, he is only 1/17 when debuting at or over a mile. If the Baffert money doesn’t show, this one may not be ready.
Race 4: OClm 50000 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 1-4-7-5
#1 Delp may not attract a ton of attention at the window, but I really like this horse in this spot. First, there is a ton of speed signed on, with at least 4 horses needing the lead, and the remaining 2 stretching out from a sprint to a route adding to the pace scenario. I think Delp has a very good chance to inherit a great ground-saving trip behind a nuclear pace setup, tip out wide in the stretch, and blow on by. While he won his only race on turf, he has run respectably on dirt as well so the surface shouldn’t be an issue for him. While having to drop to the maiden claiming level at Golden Gates to break your maiden isn’t confidence-inspiring, he did win that race like a good horse should. He has improved in every race, regardless of the fact he has been all over the place from dirt sprints to turf routes. I think he gets a great setup here to notch a second victory with another step forward. With that said about my top pick, #4 Mainframe Judy poses a serious threat on this race now that it is on the dirt. Of all the speeds entered, he is the quickest, especially on the stretch out from a sprint to a route with aggressive pilot Talamo on board. While he did regress quite a bit last out, it’s possible he may he bounced a bit off that impressive maiden score or simply found the waters against winners for the first time a little too deep for him. He will have plenty of company on the front end, but might be quick enough to best them all and hold on. #7 Govenor Cinch is the only true closer in the field, and he projects to get a great pace to run at. Expect him to be a bit more forwardly placed on the stretch out, but this one makes a ton of sense from a pace standpoint. Tough task facing winners for the first time, but this one is clearly improving and heading in the right direction and now attracts Drayden to ride. Should be flying late.
Race 5: [S]MC 50000 6 Furlongs
Picks: 3-6-7-4
#3 Carnelian Hero looms an overwhelming favorite when he was beaten a nose to just miss breaking his maiden last out. He set a contested pace that day on the inside after breaking slow and was game until the very end, just losing the bob. He gets a cutback from 7 furlongs to 6 furlongs here, and in a very soft field he is certainly the one to beat. If you want to get around him, however, it’s worth noting that his last effort represented a massive step forward from his debut, and now he returns on 3 weeks rest at the same level without even trying maiden special weight company. It’s likely a reach to get around him here, but beating him exponentially increases the value of what appears to be a chalky early sequence. None of the others here with any racing experience are even mildly appealing, so of the first-time starters the #6 Extractor figures most logical. Koriner does well with 2-year-olds, firing at 20%, although his debut numbers are weaker. This one has shown some speed in the morning workouts and gets aggressive rider Cedillo up. #7 Radio Tim is the other first-time starter of interest. The workouts haven’t been head-turning lately, but Grace Upon Grace has been a decent debut sire so far, getting 9% winners, and Sherlock gets 11% debut winners. Talamo up, who is overdue for some wins after having 1 win but 8 second place finishes in his 21 starts so far.
Race 6: [F]OC 40000n1x 1 Mile
Picks: 1-2-4-2
Race 6 is easily the most interesting race of the card so far, giving us an evenly matched field of 6. I could make a strong case for nearly every runner in this field, but the top pick is #1 Kookie Gal. This versatile filly doesn’t care if it’s turf or dirt, she just goes out there and runs her race. Owns a record of 2-1-1-0 on dirt, including a win at the mile distance, and she just missed by a nose in an optional claiming $80,000 race 3 back against tougher than these. Those figures she ran back in January/December 2018 make her competitive here, and it’s fair to assume she has developed over the lengthy layoff and will improve on her second start off the bench while returning to dirt. A major player today. A horse who is certain to be overlooked but might be sneakier than most realize is #2 Meso. This is a perfect example of a horse with ‘dirtied up’ form, where at first glance she does not seem competitive with this bunch. However, cross out the turf races. Eliminate the sloppy race, toss the all-weather track race, and lastly remove her sprinting efforts. While I recognize it’s not easy to look past that many races, if you focus purely on her efforts on dirt routing, she isn’t far off from today’s bunch. It adds to the appeal that she has her 2 best career races over this local strip and at this distance. She had an absolute nightmare trip two back at Santa Anita when forced to check early on and then check again sharply in the turn, losing all chance as the 3/5 favorite. Baze gave her an excellent ride last out, and it’s reassuring to see that Sadler elects not to run her for a tag or in an easier spot. Don’t overlook. #4 Cyrielle and #2 Persepolis are both strong contenders, but I’ll lean towards Cyrielle due to the fact she’s likely going to be a longer price. I also think Cyrielle is a bit quicker out of the gate than the rest of these, and without much obvious pace signed on there is a very real chance she steals this on the front. Her last race wasn’t against world-beaters, but she did set more than honest fractions in a gamely effort.
Race 7: [F]Alw 50000s 7 Furlongs
Picks: 3-8-7-9
Race 7 brings a full field of 9 going 7 furlongs on the dirt. While there is certainly a lot of pace projected in this race, I’m going to go with a speed horse anyway who I think could just be that much the best in #3 Claudelle. I was against this horse strongly in her last race after watching her fail to break her maiden numerous times and needing a drop in class at Los Alamitos to get the job done, but she proved me very wrong when blasting a field by 5 lengths in gate-to-wire fashion in her next start. Sadler might really have a late developing 3-year-old on his hands, as the freshening over the summer seems to have done her a world of good. She’ll need to go an extra furlong today, and she has a lot of other pace to contend with, but she very well might just be that much the best here. At the last, she makes a lot of the other speed horses unplayable just due to her presence in this race. #8 Catoca makes some sense here, as she doesn’t need the lead to run her race and gets a favorable barn switch. Despite the pedigree, her 10-0-3-5 record on turf and 3-1-1-1 record on dirt indicate she clearly prefers the main track. Hard to love a horse at 5/2 who was beaten by weaker last out, but the barn and rider change coupled with pace setup should position her to be successful in this spot. #7 Mongolian Empire hasn’t had much luck lately, but Santa Anita is often not very kind to deep closers. Note the last win and career best effort came over Del Mar back in July, and she should get an honest pace to run after today. Not sure she’s good enough to win, but with a bit of racing luck and the right trip she makes sense to hit the board at the worst and possibly upset for top honors.
Race 8: [F][S]Mdn 52k 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 1-5-12-6
Given that this race is off the turf, I’m expecting a few scratches and possibly the AEs to draw in. Many of these horses have only raced and turf, and therefore have never had to deal with taking significant kickback when racing on a dirt surface. I’m going to lean on the #1 Nocherylikemychery in this spot. She has proven dirt form, hitting the board in her first two starts at huge prices, and the jockey who was aboard for both of those efforts gets back on today. The show horse from the last race, Warriors Moon, crushed a maiden special weight field on October 19th, and the show horse from 2 back, Navy Queen, was also a runaway winner on that same card at Santa Anita. She proved last time that she can handle going 2 turns, and I think if she improves at all on her summer dirt form she will be a big threat here who will likely go overlooked. #5 Ride Sally Ride is another player with some strong dirt races under her belt. She was beaten only half a length by next out winner Navy Queen, and in her last race on turf she was very keen and fighting the rider for the entire length of the backstretch. Blinkers come off here, so I imagine she will relax a bit more and have more of a late kick than she showed last time. #12 Slew’s Screen Star ran a deceptively strong race last time at 15-1, coming from off the pace to get up for a second in a race that was won in wire-to-wire fashion. Pedigree suggests a mile might be a little far for her, but she appeared to handle it just fine on the turf last out. Needs to transition that form to dirt, but if she does she will be dangerous. #6 Phoenix Tears likely can’t win this race. However, she will absolutely be the early speed in a race of turf runners who aren’t used to going that fast that early, especially with Maldonado on board. I don’t expect her to outlast some of the others late, but if Maldonado gets her out front and relaxes she might be able to hold on for a piece at a giant price.