Aqueduct Winter 2020 Meet Stats:
Bet/Returned: $32/$29.40
We are back at the Big A after a profitable week last week where we saw 3 winners on top out of 8! We are slowly getting that ROI back up in an attempt to have yet another profitable meet for The Daily Gallop. Let’s get into it for Thursday!
Race 1: 5-4-3
#5 EL SANGRU is coming off of two races where the track was sloppy, those races were out of the money for the gelding. If we take that away we see 6 ITM runs in 8 races and he is ITM once in two races at this distance. At 5/1 ML we see a contender here who is the only finisher in the field, a field where there is plenty of speed up front for him to chase.
Race 2: 2-3-4
#2 LEGION STORM has some fantastic trainer statistics, 30% sprint to route, 24% on dirt, and 50% when the horse comes back in 1-7 days. There’s enough speed in this race to set up a solid stalking run for this horse and Kendrick gave him a good run last time. There’s also a solid drop in class here for a 6/1 ML horse.
Race 3: 6-1-4
#6 POLITICAL is dropping down in class to somewhere that makes more sense here. This gelding has been running at this distance the past two races and has never seen a fast track. Trainer stats here are also great, 31% at this layoff, 34% on dirt, 36% in routes, 45% in maiden claiming races. Finally the percentages of trainer/jockey are 37% in all of 2019-2020 and 32% at Aqueduct.
Race 4: 5-4-1
#5 FOTIS is the longest shot in the field here and I’m going to take a shot here at 12/1 ML in a very weak field. This colt has run fairly well at the 16k claimer level we have here and is stepping back down to that level today. The main reason I will try this horse? His best ever Beyer figure, an 80, was earned at this 1 1/8 Mile distance at Saratoga this summer. He is one of the few who has gone this far before, and yes it was on the grass but he still proved he can go that distance.
Race 5: 2-6-1
#2 MR PHIL was 2nd best last time out at this level but ran a very solid race. The 2nd best Beyer of this field overall and the only one to have raced in 2020. In November he ran this distance and just missed, the half furlong cut back today could help him. Kendrick stays up on the most seasoned horse in the field, four 2nd’s in 6 races overall, should be able to get the win today.
Race 6: 2-8-4
#2 MISS MI MI seems to fit here perfectly as she just bested slightly weaker competition here already this year. She’s also 2 for 2 here at the Big A and 1 for 1 at this distance. In her last race she earned a 71 Beyer which is also the Beyer par for this type of race. We see her last workout was in the top 20% of runners at that distance for that day. Trainer is 11 for 22 with new purchases who are dirt sprinters as well, 7 for 11 here.
Race 7: 2-3-6
Full disclosure I love the top two selections here and it could have gone either way, however I went with #2 ELEGANT ROSE. I really could sum up why I like this horse in one short statement, Kendrick on an in form horse with speed near the rail. I will add a disclaimer however, the two horses I have selected are speed horses are both figure to be on or close to the lead. I would go with a third in your multi race wagers here as insurance just in case those two battle too hard and tire each other out.
Race 8: 3-2-4
#3 IMPERIO D just couldn’t hold on last time out and ran a solid 2nd. Today we see more pace up front than last time and if we get a smart trip here this colt could be very dangerous. He should be able to sit just off the speed duel where neither horse is experienced enough I feel to engage in a race like that then find the wire. Should be a winner if he can get the trip and at 7/2 ML, lets go for it here.