I have handicapped for only dirt races but also threw in the turf picks just in case. For the most part it looks like a chalky card, so let’s see what prices we can get underneath. Please check my twitter handle @jailmovemaster for updated picks and analysis once scratches are announced and in case we do not have a fast and firm track.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Race 1- 2-3-5
#2- Dream Friend- Despite only 5 horses running in the opener it is a wide open race. I went to the horse who failed as a favorite last time out after showing some early zip. When Todd Pletcher horses get bet like that at GP first time out they are usually a good thing. For some reason he just quit half way into the race. I will take the horse that will offer the most value and might have some talent after the long break.
#3- Count Flanker- This is kind of a shot in the dark. I feel like both firsters might be as good, or better than the favorite. I took the one that will have a better price and is bred to win early. The dam has 8 winners from 9 starters including a stakes winner.
#5- Master Distiller- I am always dubious of horses that run well first time out in the mud. He figures to rate off of my top pick and has the perfect post. Likely to be the favorite but far from a lock and I want to find some value early since there does not figure to be any late.
Race 2- Dirt- 12-1-13
Race 3- Dirt- 14- 15-12
Race 4- 2-5-1
#2- Wise Strike- She is going first off the claim for Danny Gargan and sporting plenty of positive angles. They include 30% on the surface switch and he should have a pace advantage over the other main contenders. Her speed figures tower over the field and is a likely single on most tickets.
#5- Athwaaq – The numbers are not great for Kiaran and his firsters but he found a very weak field. The dam does win at a 16% rate first time out.
#1- Science Fiction- Loves to cash a check as evident by the 10 for 13 ITM but does not like to win races. No reason to see that change here.
Race 5- 6-3-1
#6- Triumphant- I really like this first time starter for Mark Hennig who does well with these types. The dam’s only runner was a stakes winner and won as a 2yo. It is worth noting that she outworked her stablemate Bourbon War who won recently first time out. The spacing of the workouts are a bit concerning but if he takes money in the 4th race doubles then I know she is very live.
#3- White Mischief- She was the 2nd largest purchase at the March sale and is trained by Chad Brown. She will obviously go off the favorite based on the connections alone but I like Chad Brown routing first time out more than I like him sprinting.
#1- I’m Guilty- This is me looking for some value. I am willing to forgive her first effort where she was 5 wide for most of the race. She should be able to save some ground from the rail post and the track is starting to dry out which will make the rail a better place to be. The damn has 6 winners from 9 starters including 2 stake winners. Rudy has been firing on all cylinders of late so it would not shock to see this one hit the board at a monster price.
Race 6- Turf – 4-6-9
Race 7- 7-2-6
#7- Gold for the King- He is by far the class of the field and love this track. He is a head away from being 3 for 3 2nd of the layoff like he is going here. Looks like a strong play here at probably odds on.
#2- Winston’s Chance – If you take out his long effort on the grass he has hit the board in 8 of his last nine races. 7F look right up his alley and is very dangerous.
#6- Sudden Surprise – Jail Move special albeit a light one.
Race 8- Turf- 8-6-10