- Perfect Tapatino- Beschizza/ Attfield
- The older the turf horse the better with Attfield. Attfield specializes in turf but also does a lot better with older turf horses. Today is the first American start for Perfect Tapatino which is an angle I like to play. However, he seems to like a wet turf course and today should be really firm. I will have to pass but the connections and him being a shipper are positive angles for me, especially at 20/1.
- Sky Promise- Cohen/ Diodoro
- This duo of Cohen and Diodoro usually connect at a high rate. However, I just don’t see this horse being a turf horse in my opinion. He can get the job done on the turf but in a stakes race like this, I just don’t see him running as strong as others in this spot. These connections however are always live and at 20/1 ML its not a bad play, just not in my top 3 today.
- Apreciado- Garcia/ Maker
- Apreciado is a horse that is intriguing at 12/1 ML. He just ran 2nd at 8/1 at GP back in January in a Grade 3 at the distance. With some needed rest and coming off of a top speed figure, 12/1 would be generous. I don’t think 12/1 is what you would get today but I think 7/1 would be the lowest he goes. I really like him in this spot and think he is live, coming off of that career high speed figure in the Grade 3 last time.
- He’s No Lemon- Bejarano/ Motion
- He’s No Lemon ran 2nd back in September in the Bald Eagle Derby at Laurel and earned a career best number going today’s distance. He seems to love going long distances on turf. He is one of 3 4yos going against older today which is a good angle. Motion is very good in spots like this as well. My only gripe is Bejarano riding this horse. I am not the biggest Bejarano fan but he is a veteran and can still ride. Must use on horizontals.
- Arklow- Geroux/ Cox
- Arklow is the heavy favorite in this spot today and I can see why. He is the class of the field and speed figures wise, he towers over this field. However, 8/5 on this horse is not playable for me. Geroux seems to be this horse’s kryptonite as well. The races in which Geroux rode, he seemed to just miss and lose every graded stakes by a close margin. In a wide open field, I will be using others on top but Arklow could be a probable winner here just won’t use him on top unless somehow he miraculously creeps up in price.
- Tiz a Slam- Gaffalione/ Attfield
- The other Attfield in this race is a much more respected horse in this spot. Coming into this race as the ML second choice and getting Gaffalione aboard instead of the usual rider in Bahen. He has a win over the CD surface and seems to like going gate to wire at this distance. Gaffalione isn’t my favorite jockey on early speed horses but if the horse can set good fractions on the lead or close, I can see him having solid stamina towards the end.
- Lombo- Baze/ D’Amato
- Good old Lombo. Lombo is a primarily dirt horse and only has 2 starts on the turf. Both those starts were very lackluster. I truly don’t understand why he is in this spot but the distance should be right in his wheelhouse. However, with the bad performances on turf, I will pass.
- Jais’s Solitude- Lanerie/ Kenneally
- With Jais’s Solitude, my main gripe is the distance today. The class is also an issue but he has performed well in smaller stakes but nothing like this race. His speed figures do not fit in here really and I think his best days were as a 3yo.
- Golden Dragon- Talamo- Maker
- Golden Dragon gets the ICE COLD Joe Talamo today who is 1 for 77 coming into this race(not including races prior to this race week). This is obviously Makers possible rabbit for Appreciado. This horse is a flat mile type of runner. Speed figures are nowhere even close to the average of this field in my opinion. I just can’t see him winning today in any scenario.
- Fearsome- Graham/ Murphy
- Fearsome seems to like the distance but however, seems to be outclassed and not quite the quickest in this field. Other than being 5-7 speed figures below the top tier horses here and being slightly outclassed, his run style fits here. He should have the stamina to go the distance and could be in the race flow for the majority of the trip since he is slightly below the top speed numbers. I just don’t see him being a major player here though when it comes to fighting it out for the finish.
- Ry’s The Guy- Landeros/ Wilkes
- Ry’s The Guy, is one of the other 4yos in this field facing older. One of his only two wins lifetime, has come at Churchill. However, he has yet to run at the distance and the closest to the given distance today he ran 2nd at Kentucky Downs which is impressive. I think the class and the speed figures just do not fit in this spot and the outside post is a killer here.
- Admission Office- Leparoux/ Lynch
- Admission Office seems super live in this spot today. Yet, the 12 hole going a mile and a half and Leparoux riding instead of Rosario, Franco,Prat, or Jose Ortiz is definitely a downgrade in jockey. He seems to be also a hanger in most cases and hasn’t won anything higher than an allowance I believe. The 2nd off the layoff angle hits at 16% for Lynch and should help this horse’s ability to win today. I won’t be using on top but I will be using today in all bets.
TOP PICKS
# 3 Appreciado
#4 He’s No Lemon
#5 Arklow