Hello fellow Horseplayers and Racing fans! There is a great 10 race card scheduled for today at Gulfstream with a little something for everyone, including the Treasure Coast Non-Graded Stakes race at 1 1/8 Mile running in the 9th. There are 5 turf races and 5 dirt, and plenty of competitive fields with a fair share of nice prices as of the Morning Lines. So, let’s get started!
Race 1- 5 Furlong Maiden Claiming on Turf for 3-year old’s and upward
12 Horse Field with 4 “AE” ready to go
The first race today is set to be on the turf and is a Maiden claiming that features one first time starter in the 1 Needs No Alibi. The morning line favorite is 9 Dinner At Five at 2/1 with the 11 Princess Avril close by at 5/2. I like both of these horses, even though the outside post positions are struggling here. They both possess good early speed and if they can avoid getting into a speed duel, they should live up to their ML. If there is a horse that may be able to come off the pace a bit and clean up on a busted pace in my opinion that would be the 2 Water Wizard and at a 20/1 ML you may consider a play on this fillie. She is coming back to a Turf sprint from a couple of 1-mile races on dirt in which she didn’t really seem to care for, this is an angle that I have had some luck pursuing.
Race 1 Picks- 9,11,2
Race 2- 1 Mile Claiming on Dirt for 3-year old’s and upward
8 Horse Field
The second race ML favorite is the 7 Got the Gist. I can certainly understand why, with the recent success of trainer Georgina Baxter and the overall form coming off of a 2nd place finish last time out that was an extraordinarily strong effort. However, I’m not exactly sold. I believe there are a couple of other horses here who can win this race. My favorite is going to be the 2 Countenance at 4/1 ML. I believe her pace is right for this group and she is coming down a little in class from last time out. The racing forms will say her speed is showing a declining pattern but I’m not buying it. After looking further back at her speed patterns and watching replays, I believe she will bounce back a bit in that area this race if she needs to. I also Like the 8 Paynter Fest at 3/1 ML and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this price go a little longer come post time. Christian Torres has ridden her to a 1st and 3rd place finish in the last two times out and her speed looks to be right in the mix with the top flight here in this race, the difference is that the 8 has shown a little bit of a late kick in previous outings that may bold well for here. I am going to be taking a longshot play here with the 5 La Tres Jolie at 12/1, and it seems like a shot worth taking to me. With Zayes climbing back aboard after switching things up last time out, I believe that adds a bit of comfort here for the 5 and if the race unfolds in a way that she can remain close to the pace she may have a wire shot for an in the money finish.
Race 2 Picks- 2,8,5
Race 3- 1 Mile Allowance on Turf for 4-year old’s and upward
This is an 11-horse field with the 6 listed as MTO
This 1-mile turf race has a really nice field and there are a lot of options to consider. I am not on the ML favorite which is the 8 Team Win for a few reasons. Mainly because of form concerns with more than 90 days off and a history of weakening at this distance and surface. I realize that this is a Pletcher conditioned horse so the 90 day turnaround shouldn’t be too much off an issue considering Todd Pletcher is at almost a 30% with 90 plus days away, but the fact remains that this horse has folded when it counted in the past and the speed figures are a bit lacking as well. I like the 9 Connectivity quite a bit here. At 6/1 odds this 4-year-old fillie is dropping 40 in distance and looks to be in good form with some excellent recent workout figures since last race. There is enough early speed, need the lead types in this race to make a strong case for a horse to come off the pace to win and the 9 just may be the one to do it. I also like the 5 Scatnap here for some of the same reasons as the 9 but I do believe the 5 is a bit different pace wise and can get caught up in a strong early pace, but if she can be rated just a bit her pedigree and class and back speed can make her a real contender in my opinion.
Race 3 Picks- 9,5,8
Race 4- 6.5 Furlong Maiden Special Weight on Dirt for 3-year old’s and upward
This is a 7-horse field
The 7 Freedom Force looks to be getting all of the early money with a ML of 6/5 and if you’re a “checking the boxes” kind of capper then this horse certainly is the one for you. I had some apprehension here and the more I looked over the replays and past performances of the race entries, I think there are definitely some holes in the favorite. I have the 7 as an early speed type of horse although the forms have him down as anything from a “Late Pace” to a “Stalker” depending on which one you look at. For me, the numbers tell the story however, his second call to finishing call ratio for his 3 races, along with the replays, tell me that he is more of an early speed horse. There are other speed types inside him that also will want to get out front and this always makes things interesting for a pace handicapper. I like the 6 Princely God here, making only his second start but with a drop in class, I believe that he will have something to say in this race. I like a couple of angles with the 6. Besides the usual possibility for improvement of a second time starter, I like the fact that Lasix will be added. I will also add that in watching the replay of the 6 in his debut, I found that it was kind of an ugly trip with a stumble thrown in to consider but yet he still finished 4th. My other pick here are going to be the 1 Sandys Blaze who is coming down just a bit in class company and showed me some great closing ability at a similar distance coming from a 2nd call position of 10 to just missing the win with a wide bid late. I taking another longshot play here with the 4 Jealous Boyfriend. This horse was rated pretty well last time out and seemed to be almost saving for another trip, maybe this one is the one.
Race 4 Picks-6,1,4
Race 5- 5 Furlongs Claiming on Turf for 3-year old’s and upward
There are 10 horses in this field with 2 AE and 2 MTO ready to go
My picks here kind of jumped out at me a bit so this one is going to be relatively simple. I like the 5 No Se Vende. She is coming down in class and returning to turf. Last time out she struggled at the gate and was a hard load. She still managed to finish 2nd against tougher even though this was on dirt, I still consider this a good sign here. My other picks are going to be the 1 Dancingwithjimmieb and the 4 Beating The Odds. The 1 is moving up in class but he has the highest speed figures in the field today not to mention he has been on an upward trend of late. The 4 is going to be a genuinely nice price here, the ML is 30/1. I don’t know if it will hold but regardless, I think this horse is worth a play at anything longer than 5/1. There are a few angles I like with the 4, one is the hot trainer angle with De La Cerda doing very well in the past couple of weeks. I also like the hidden potential I see on film with this one. Although there is nothing in the recent speed figures that jumps out, this horse can run and with her Dams pedigree of 7 winners out of 9 starters including 1 stakes winner and 5 turf winners, I cant help but think there’s something there.
Race 5 Picks-5,1,4
Race 6- 1 Mile Claiming on Dirt for 3 year old’s
There are 7 horses in this field
I’m going to have to eat just a bit of chalk here as I do like the 6 Plato to win. This colt is coming down 2 classes but there is nothing in the past performances to be alarmed about in this move. His last start was ruff with a pretty good bump at the start but I look for him to bounce back here with a performance like he had 3 races back when winning at this distance and putting up a brisnet speed figure 7 points higher than the average winning figure for this race. My other picks are the 7 Awesome Party and the 5 Earquake. The 7 has had 2 bad starts the last 2 times out with a sever bump in one race to start and a stumble in another. 2 Races back when he stumbled, he still managed to win even though in my estimates the stumble cost him at least a couple of lengths. I like the 5 for many of the same reasons as the 7, right down to the bad recent trips. I think there is potential there for the race to unfold in her favor as I have her down as a stalker who can come off the pace a bit.
Race 6 Picks-6,7,5
Race 7- 1 Mile Claiming on Turf for 3 year old’s
There are 8 Horses in this field
I admit, a horse moving up in class is usually not an angle I like. With that said though, I am going with the 5 Scar in this one. At a nice ML price of 10/1, I think this horse is a great value if it stays any where near this. The pace of this race should unfold nicely for the 5 and I think Zayas knows just how to win with this one. Add that to the impressive looking performance last time out and I do believe this is a great play here. My other picks are going to be the 1 Sun Squall at another decent ML price of 6/1 I think this will fool some bettors into underestimating this horse’s ability much like the 5. I will finish up my choices for this race with what will more than likely be that favorite, the 8 Warrant Officer. One of the main reasons I’m not picking the 8 ahead of the others is because I question about form here. With over 50 days off and the last outing he was beaten by a weaker bunch, I just have to question can he finish. I believe he is good enough to finish in the money here, but I’m not sold on a victory.
Race 7 Picks-5,1,8
Race 8- 1 Mile Claiming on Dirt for 3-year old’s
This is a 6-horse field
The 5 Tons Of Gold is my top pick here. With the backing of some recent impressive speed and pace figures I can forgive the move up in class here. My only concern is hoping that there is no regression after the big speed number put up last time out. The sharp 4 furlong work out numbers posted on 5/30 do tell me that he’s ready though so if I can get him close to the ML of 6/1, I’m playing him as a winner here. MY other picks are going to be the 6 Like You and the 4 Indy’s Jewel . The 6 has a nice speed and pace setup to do well here and I was impressed watching his recent race replay. The 4 is the type of horse that’s kind of hard to figure. He seems to have a pattern of running up front but doesn’t necessarily have to have the lead to do well. I wouldn’t say he is going to come off the pace from way back, but he can make up ground from what I’ve seen and read. If he gets a good trip here, I do think the race could set up to his strengths and I look for a good finish from him in this one.
Race 8 Picks 5,6,4
Race 9- 1 1/8 Mile Stakes race on Turf
This is a 9-horse field with 3 MTO ready to go
These marathons on turf are always fun to watch and handicap as well. The favorite going in should be the 6 Always Shopping. Though I think this Todd Pletcher trained fillie is a great horse, I’m going with a few others in this one. I really like the 9 Helping Lisa D here, and I’m not just saying that because of the 12/1 ML either. I think that will change a bit to be honest, but you still should be able to get a good price on the 6 as I think she’ll still be overlooked by a lot of bettors. I usually wouldn’t be on a horse coming off back to back wins and moving up in class, but I believe in this one a bit more than usual. I can’t quite put my finger on what the early pace will be like, but I have no doubt that the 9 will be there, not necessarily leading the pace but just off. If she can be rated just a little, I believe she wins this one. My other picks are going to be the 3 Olympic Games and 12 Traipsing. I like both of these horses for similar reasons as the 9, but I think the 3 has a nice connection advantage and with the addition of Lasix that’s always an angle to look for. Even though this horse has been off for a long while I have to believe that Clement will have her ready to go. The 12 has a perfect running style for this surface and distance in my opinion. She appears to be a real closer who can stalk, shift and move when asked.
Race 9 Picks 9,3,12
Race 10 6.5 Furlongs Maiden Claiming on Dirt for 3 year old’s and upward
This is a 9-horse field
With 4 first time starters in the field this one could be interesting. I am with the 8 Vivamente here at a ML of 6/1. If it holds close to that it’s a pretty nice price in my opinion. Early speed types are winning this race at a 37% rate and that’s hard to ignore so the 8 fits nicely. My other picks are the 2 Che Paree and the 7 Smooth s Glass. The 2 is coming off of a 6-furlong affair in which she just missed a late bid and finished 2nd. Perhaps the extra half furlong will be just what she needs to get the win here. The 7 is my last longshot play of the day here with a ML of 15/1, and I think once again that the early speed helps her chances, but even a bit deeper with this one I like the fact this fillie has a real strong pedigree that includes a Stakes winner.
Race 10 Picks 8,2,7
Good Luck to everyone! As always, in the event that the Turf races are moved to the Main Track remember that this may change my picks somewhat. I will try to update any significant changes on my twitter @ LuckyLefty71.