Aqueduct Racing Analysis — Sunday, November 17, 2019, by Ivan Lopez

Another Sunday of good racing here at the Big A, where we have ten races carded, highlighted by the Notebook Stakes, for NY Breds two year olds going a mile on the main track. Without further ado, let’s go to the analysis.

1st race: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 50000n2L Purse $44,000 (UP TO $7,656 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES.

1-8-5

Bourbon in May (1)  has just missed in his last two starts, one of them in this same condition he is running today. He will come from off the pace, so Castellano will need to be aware of the kind of pace he will see in front of him. My guess is that he will have a swift enough pace to run at, so from the rail post, and the rail on the grass has been very good lately, he is the horse to beat. Wild Weekend (8) won his last after having some trouble at the start, and then went on he shelf for more than three months. Don’t like that he has only two works in preparation, but he is now trained by Jason Servis, who hits at a 37% when coming back from a maiden win. Joel Rosario, one of the top three riders on the grass, gets the assignment. Montatham (5) also comes from breaking his maiden, and he completes our selection, getting the advantage against horses that have lost repeatedly in this same level. Joe Ortiz gets the call for Kiaran Mc. Laughlin. 

2nd race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Outer Turf) ™‘MC 40000 Purse $41,000 OUTER TURF FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD

5-10-8

Difficult race to begin the Pick 4. Double Happiness (5) already dropped to this level and lost as the 9/5 choice. That day, he had to deal with an off track that he didn’t managed at all at first, and then, when finally he got a hold to it, he started to make good ground but winner was already too far in front. Alvarado comes back to his saddle and has two good works in preparation, and he will look now to be closer to the pace, as there is not much speed signed in. Go Zappem (10) came from ten months of rest and ran evenly at the MSW level. Now drops for a tag, and that alone is enough to consider him part of your plays. Bad post, so Jose Ortiz will need to work wonders to put her at a good tactical position. Another one taking a step down in class is Roziere (8), and she is making her first start on the grass, another incognita on her. Gargan does well dropping from MSW, and the group is weak enough to give her a chance at a price. 

3rd race: 1 Mile. Clm 16000 Purse $36,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

4-2-8

Connections for Armament (4) are hoping for the fast strip that we have been having lately at Aqueduct. If this happens, this horse will be tough, dropping again to a level he can manage. I expect jockey Carroll to send him to the lead and the mile is a very feasible trip for him. Has been a popular commodity at the claim box, another good sign for him. Pete’s Project (2) is an eminent winner, something we can not say of a lot of horses in these groups. Hasn’t lost his tip top condition since coming from Finger Lakes and now is trained by Domenick Schettino, who hits at a 36 % rate when repeating in a claim after acquiring the horse. Dylan Davis keeps the mount and should be placed in a secure garden spot from the start. Blame the Thief (8) likes Aqueduct and the eight panels distance, having won 3 of 8 in both of them. He is not much of a winning machine, but has a good post in the gate and circumstances maybe the most favorable for him in a long time. 

4th race:  1 3/ 8 Mile. (Turf) Alw 90000n1x Purse $90,000 (UP TO $15,660 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

6-3-5

This race looks in paper like it is controlled by two horses. Cross Border (6) comes from losing the Grade I Turf Classic Invitational by less than three lengths. If he repeats that kind of effort in here, everyone else will be running for place money. He also has a distinct pace advantage that Jose Ortiz should take by sending him to the front. Will be an extremely tough cookie to chew. Mr Alec (3) is the up and comer, with one win and two seconds in only three starts. By looking at his races, he seems to relish the added ground, and with this eleven furlong distance, he will have a chance to show if he has what it takes in these marathon races. Gauguin (5) is the best of the rest, having raced three times at this same trip with good results. If by any chance someone goes with my top pick, he is the one that can finish. 

5th race: 6 Furlongs. (Outer Turf) Alw 75000n1x Purse $75,000 OUTER TURF (UP TO $13,050 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

2-4-9

In a race in which we don’t see much speed signed in, Morning Breeze (2) can be long one from the gitgo. He lost last time out as the favorite, but the horse that beat him came back to win, so that flatters him. Jose Lezcano knows him like the palm of his hand and should be the first one to consider. Another one who failed as the top choice in his most recent was Fled (4), but he came from the very tough number 2 post at five and a half furlongs. Has been resting since that race(almost three months) and comes back with two good works. Irad Ortiz takes the call. The wild card horse here is Strike (9), who has only six races lifetime in a span of more than two years, and for the first time in a long time, he is running with only five weeks rest, indicative that he is feeling better. Castellano repeats the mount after that very discreet come back race, and I expect an improved effort in his part. 

6th race: 1 Mile. ‘Alw 66000n1x Purse $66,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

4-2-1

Turbulence (4) seems to be a very talented individual with some physical problems. The spacing between race tells us he needs time to recover, but looks to be primed for a top effort for new trainer Linda Rice. Financialstability (2) is another one lacking experience, but no doubt about his ability on the track. The mile distance should suit him well and Jose Ortiz comes back to his saddle, and we will se him right behind that first flight to take first run at the early leaders. Danny California (1) keeps improving with each and every new race. Has two consecutive victories and trainer Noda takes the confident step up in class with him. I will not be surprised about another win for this very useful gelding. 

7th race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 70k Purse $70,000 (UP TO $12,180 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD.

2-9-5

Brice (2) just fell short of the win in his debut, after some bumping at the start and them traffic problems when starting to uncoil his late run. Trainer Jonathan Thomas scores at a 34% rate second race lifetime and gets the services of the very efficient Manny Franco to ensure the win. Scanno (9) has two races, and in both he has faced very good horses, like Structor (winner of the Juvenile Turf) and Don Juan Kitten. He needs pace to run at and he figures to have it, as the race looks to be loaded with early zip. Perjury Trap (5) goes dirt to turf for Chad Brown, after not delivering in two races as the favorite. Has two bullets in preparation and Irad climbs aboard for big time clients Chad Brown and Klaravich Stables. Merits respect. 

8th race: 6 Furlongs. (Outer Turf) ™‘Alw 66000n1x Purse $66,000 OUTER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD

6-5-7

Winifred J. (6) was scratched out of a race in October 13 by the Vet, but has three solid works for this event and looks to be the controlling speed in here. Another good sign is that she is not being risked for a tag in her come back race. Magic Fairy (5) won her debut as she pleased, in an off the turf race. Now, after a five month layoff, she returns in the grass, what she wanted to do from the start. Trainer Christophe Clement is better second time out and Castellano doesn’t lose track to her. Flush (7) completes the trio. She has been burning some money, but now that she returns to a sprint, she should come with a good late run and can cause the upset, now that she will be a better price. 

9th race: 6 Furlongs. ‘NotebookB100K Notebook S. Purse $100,000 FOR TWO-YEAR-OLDS FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

4-6-7

I think this race looks prime for going against a very unproven favorite, and we will try to do so with Moonachie (4), who was left at the start in his last effort, and was fighting for the lead at the top of the stretch to finally falter, but only two and three quarter lengths from the winner. His action makes me think he will relish the added ground and Manny Franco takes over the responsibility for trainer Jeremiah Englehart. Harris Bay (6) already ran the distance of a mile and he did good in doing so. Now, with that experience under his belt, he will be a tough customer today. Trainer Kimmel hits at 35% in non graded stakes. Dream Bigger (7) is the speed of the speed, and if he is left alone with an easy enough lead, he can take them wire to wire, but he figures to have company upfront. Lets see how Jose Ortiz plays it, I imagine he will try to clear from that outside post. 

10th race: 6 Furlongs. ™‘MC 40000 Purse $41,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

9-3-4

High School Crush (9) stumbled right after the start in her debut and recovered to lost the race by a mere length. Now has that experience behind har and that combo of Manny Franco and George Weaver has always been extremely effective. Cruising Storm (3) ran in the same race and was forwardly placed form the start, to be beaten by a neck. Now gets the services of Javier Castellano, who stays for the finale in a Sunday. Top Hat Invasion (4) seems to be the fastest of this bunch and maybe has the experience chip in her side, with three races already under her belt. 

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