Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Race 1- 5-6-2
Something tells me that about 2 minutes after they run the first race, I will be frustrated I spent 20 minutes handicapping this race. Linda Rice looks to have a strong hand in this race but both come into the race with red flags. I will slid slightly with #5 Delta Gamma who has run the fastest races and has the most experience of the contenders. #6- Sterling Beauty has a right to improve on the stretchout and has excuses in his first two races. #2 Color Chart will probably be the favorite as Linda Rice does wonders with 2nd time starters. However, I do not like Rice horses dropping in class.
Race 2- 7-2-5
#7- Rachel’s Blue Moon- This pick is more about trying to beat the heavy Brown favorite than me liking this horse. However, there are a few things to like here:
- Horse taking a huge drop in class and towers over the field class wise
- The last time Jerkens took this horse to a route after a 6F event, the horse romped back on July 11th
- Horse should be alone on the lead
Worth a 5-1 shot with a big improvement in jock.
#2- Sweet August Lady- This is a turf horse who the connections are not worth shipping down south. If the track comes up wet, then this horse will probably win but I want nothing to do with this horse at a very short price.
#5- Stella B- This jail move for Chris Englehart ships up from Parx. Everyone knows I love my jail moves but this is not a strong move.
Race 3- 1-5-3
#1- American Mandate- This will be my likely single in the sequence. Horse should be alone on the lead and has run the fastest races against the best company. He exits a key race in where the 2nd and 3rd place finishers have already come back to win. Prior to that he lost by a neck to the Gotham winner. Some may worry about the extra distance but this horse should be talented enough to get the job done.
#5- Direct Order- This is probably the wise guy horse who will take action for the jail move master, Jason Servis. Has to improve but if my top pick can’t get the distance here is your winner.
Race 4- 6-2-5
#6- Not About the Nail- This race looks like the Jail Move Stakes with about half the field entering the race on a small jail move. My top pick looks to be in the best form with the best improvement of trainer. I am concerned with no wins on a wet track if the track is not fast and the low percentage jockey but I think this is your best mare. 5 of her 8 wins are at this distance.
#2- Arewehavingfunyet- This is probably the horse to beat on the jail move for Randy Persaud. This low percentage trainer actually does his best work going first off the claim. The jock/trainer combo are also hitting at 36%. These are two huge angles for a trainer that only wins at a 5% clip. The horse likes this track and would become the top pick on an off track.
#5- Slam Chowder- The 10-1 ML price is tempting and I almost put her on top. She is projected to be on the lead and I am willing to forgive her last race after the jock didn’t go for the lead. Expect her to be aggressive and might get brave against this bunch.
Race 5- 3-1-7
#3- Wildcat Belle- This is an interesting Jail move from David Canizzo who claimed the horse from…….David Canizzo. The back story on this move was that it was a David Jacobson purchase, who is no longer in the game. This is still a huge jump in class and we know Gutierrez will be aggressive and put this one on the lead. Will be my single in both Pick 5’s
#1- Jump for Joy- we scored on Jump for Joy last time out and is capable of making it 2 in a row. Upgrade on a fast track and is a must include in your exacta bets as evident by not being out of the top two spots in 7 straight races.
#7- As Cool As you Like- She will be stalking my top pick and perfectly spotted on the outside. Don’t ignore.
Race 6- 4-6-9
#4- Erlich- Tough race so I will side with the horse who has lost to Tacitus by a neck. Expect Eric Cancel to put this horse on the lead and I love horses cutting back from the two turn races into the mile. #6- Hizaam is working well for Chad Brown and has the advantage of being an older horse, compared to the million dollar purchase entry. #9- Tiz Morning is a check earner who should be closing late and likely to grab a piece.
Race 7- 7-8-1
#7- Nicodemus- I love this horse. I repeat. If I get 4-1 on this horse I will be sending it in. I am willing to forgive his last race out as he was against the track and forced to go 7 wide. I am not sure why Dylan dropped him so far back last time, but the addition of blinkers may be pointing to that it wasn’t his fault. Speaking of the addition of blinkers, Linda Rice is hitting at a 43% clip when adding blinkers to a horse. I think this horse is ultra talented and a future stakes winner.
#8- Sam and Jax- It is interesting that Chad Brown has left this horse here in NY but he obviously has talent. He easily won his first race last time out but I question the quality of that field. Capable of improving off that race.
#1- Fuel the Bern- By far the most dangerous tandem in NYRA is back together. Carmouche and Gargan horses are ones you need to pay attention to. This is no exception and might be sitting the best trip of everyone. Last time out he was wide on a rail biased track. Prior to that ran the best race of his career. Watch out!
Race 8- 5-3-2
#5- Midnight Disguise- I need to try to get this 8-1 shot home. I love when Linda Rice gets aggressive with her horses and this horse has plenty of excuses in her past races to think she can improve to with this Stakes. Last time out, she failed at 5/2 (thanks to our 8-1 shot winning) but did so chasing wide on a day where rail speed was king. Still she was able to close to take second place honors. It is interesting that Castellanos stayed in NY to ride this horse instead of going back down south.
#3- Divine Miss Grey- She is by far the horse to beat. She loves the distance, she loves the track and she is a Grade Stakes winner who should sit a great trip. But what was her excuse last time out?
Race 9- 2-4-9