I’m easy like Sunday morning today. Beautiful day for a nice 9-race card at the Big A Please follow me @jailmovemaster . I always post thoughts and pick changes based on scratches or track trends.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info @nyra. Good luck!
Conservative Pick 5 ticket- 1,7 / 6 / 6,8,10 / 7 / 8 = $3
Aggressive Pick 5 ticket – 1,5,6,7 / 2,5,6 / 6,8,10 / 3,7 / 4,7,8 = $108
**** The theme of today is playing older horses against 3yo. This time of year, especially on the grass this angle usually provides great value. Those that have followed me over the years have seen the write-up and have seen the data.
Race 1- 1-7-5
This looks like a good race to spread early, if you are like me and not in love with the favorite. #7- First Forever has a couple of excuses and is a well deserved favorite. Last time out she chased a Servis horse who freaked and still held on for 2nd. Prior to that, she was on the lead and pressured on a day that the rail wasn’t great. She will be very short odds, and will be a 3yo against a couple of older horses which makes her vulnerable. I also avoid Rice droppers like the plague; especially when trying something new like stretching out. #1 Causin’ Trouble will be a huge closer in a race that is lacking a lot of early zip. However, I like this horse 2nd off the layoff and one of the few 4yo in the race. She should be able to save all of the ground and she is one of the few that we know will like this distance. #5- Miss Flambe is a bit interesting. She has tried to route twice and has excuses in each. She gets a huge jockey upgrade and I hope “The Mouche” gets aggressive here. Spread and hope to beat the chalk.
Race 2- 6-5-2
I will admit this race looks like a head scratcher as I really didn’t want anyone. The entry looks like they may cancel one another out as they are both speed horses. Toss in Big Brown Cat and it is possible we may have a contested pace that will set it up for a closer. #6 Saratoga Style fits that profile as a closing sprinter. Toss out his routing and off track races and she may actually be a standout (if there is such a thing in a 30k claimer). Her lone bad race on a fast track came on a speed biased day. She fits and is your likely winner. #5- Infatuation is another that will closing late and lost to my top pick last time out. However, he has been caught extremely wide the last two times out and if he can work out a better trip, he has a shot to upset at a price. #2- Pennys From Heaven is another interesting closer, who will save ground on the rail and try to kick out around the turn. She has a shot to get first jump on the 2 big closers and get up just in time. If it turns out, she just didn’t like the wet stuff, then she could be set to improve off her maiden victory, first time out.
Race 3- 6-10-8
If the early money comes in hard on #10- Unleveraged, then you know Chad Brown is sitting on a live one. However, she he has been away for about a year and a half and it is hard to trust these…..unless the board tells you otherwise. #6- Chantry Flats has been good enough to lose the last couple of times out but might be loose on the lead here and sometimes that is enough on the NYRA circuit. #8- Rhode Island has been a horse I have liked in the past but continues to burn money and may lack the killer instinct when needing to fight to the wire. If you are looking for a live price, #5- Strategic Outlook has the form to be extremely live at a huge price. First time out, he was bet like a good thing and just missed. Since then, he has been unlucky and found 3 races that were taken off the turf and has dirtied up his form. The switch back to the green stuff is just what he needs and is a must include on horizontal and vertical plays.
Race 4- 7-3-Entry
#7- Infield is In will be one of my top plays for the day at 7/2. I wish I had another jock on the horse, but the form and the tape tell me this horse is much the one to beat. He has had trouble getting out of the gate but the outside post should erase some of those concerns. There should be enough speed to set up his closing kick and he clearly loves this track and the fast dirt. #3- Change of Venue is the only other horse I would want out of this field. He has races that would destroy these, but those took place earlier in his career. He is another that has had trouble getting out of the gate. With a clean break he is the one to beat.
Race 5- 7-8-4
The world will pick #8- Inspector Lynley on top who will probably be 1/5 at post. However, this looks like a prep race for the Beaguey in May. Is he the horse to beat? Absolutely. Will he most likely win? Absolutely. But we make money in this game by beating 1/5 shots. #7 Black Tide will be flying early and has had a knack in the past for shocking the field if they just let him walk. At 12/1, on a track he loves, why not? #4- Multiplier is also an intriguing option going out for Bill Mott first time. He went into the Mott barn back in October, so he has had plenty of time to improve this horse. Very dangerous.
Race 6- 2-6
I don’t really have much to say about this race since it seems like a two horse race. Some may try to get the Pletcher horse in the mix, but why didn’t he debut the horse on Turf, down south? Pletcher has been known to try to win on the dirt and then if they fail, try the turf before unloading. #9- Five Alarm Robin is an intriguing firster and price for Jeremiah Englehart but he does better with turf sprinters.
Race 7- 5-1-8
#5- Wegotoldyougotsold looks like a single in the late P4 sequence. He and #2 Tap Master exits the same race where Bon Raison went wire to wire at a price (had him on top that day). However, that was on a gold rail and my top pick held on nicely for 2nd despite chasing wide. The 2 for 45 jock/trainer combo doesn’t sit so well but it is his race to lose. If you are looking for a couple of prices underneath, #1- All Systems Go broke his maiden on the turf impressively, but is better bred for the dirt. Could wake up with the surface switch. #8 Achilles Warrior is another who won first time out but then try to go on the derby track, to find out that this is a sprinter. He may need a race but watch the early money, he may be live.
Race 8- 9-8-4
I am a sucker for #9 War Canoe here. I actually think he will be higher than the 5/1 ML and gets back to his favorite track. It is worth noting that the last time he entered a race off this long a layoff he won at 8/1 back in April of 2018. Repeat? 38- Too Cool to Dance will be a heavy favorite due to the connections, but might be a horse who needs the lead. I am not sure where her early speed went but I will try to beat her here. #4- Wegetsdamunnys has never won on the green but Clement has great trainer stats with this move.
Race 9- 8-2