Week 1 (11/2) – 10: 2-2-2, -30% ($20 wagered, $16 returned)
Week 2 (11/9) – 10: 0-1-4, -100% ($20 wagered, zero returned)
Week 3 (12/7) – 10: 2-2-2. -53% ($20 wagered, $9.40 returned)
Week 4 (12/14) – 9: 5-1-1, +98.89% ($18 wagered, $35.80 returned)
Week 5 (12/21) – 9: 2-2-2, even ($18 wagered, $17.90 returned)
Week 6 (12/28) – 9: 0-4-1, -100% ($18 wagered, zero returned)
Week 7 (1/4) – 9: 4-0-1, +97.7% ($18 wagered, $35.90 returned)
Week 8 (1/11) – 9: 2-4-2, +18.9% ($18 wagered, $21.40 returned)
Week 9 (1/25) – 9: 1-1-2, -56.1% ($18 wagered, $7.90 returned)
TOTAL: 84: 18-17-17, -15.3% ROI ($168 wagered, $142.30 returned)
Race 1
2 – Lookbothways – she’s been on fire as of late, winning her last two and coming up just short in the try before those. The move back to the Big A has certainly been beneficial, and she retains the services of the aggressive Kendrick Carmouche here today. I like the inside draw with her early zip, and though the favorite will also be near the lead I think she’s more than capable of settling in and battling in the lane. Should get a fair price too. 2-4-5
Race 2
3 – Tonal Vision – tried a pretty salty group first out at Gulfstream, had a terrible trip before rallying nicely for an unexpected third. Mark Casse does OK with maiden second-timers, and had this one firing in the most recent work. Don’t think she’ll take a TON of money, so the price looks sharp on a filly who certainly deserves a bet-back after the rocky debut. 3-6-5
Race 3
5 – O Shea Can U See – I love this horse. Pure mystery every time he gets into the gate, as he’s 14 for 28 lifetime ITM and you never know how things are going to shake out. He is, however, on quite a little streak right now and comes back off a nice win just seven days ago right here at the Big A. Seems like an unusual move, especially jumping up a level, but the pace scenario could be perfect once again with all the speed in here and I like his chances to stay hot and get home for the three-peat. 5-3-4
Race 4
3 – Cause for Applause – this four year old gelding had been knocking heads (to no avail) in the allowance ranks for the majority of his 14 race career before getting back to the claiming ranks two-back here at the Big A. He had to go very wide into the lane that day and came up just short, so I like the angle here with him finding his comfort zone against a bunch like this. 3-5-9
Race 5
4 – Judicial Restraint – the 8-1 ML probably indicates that this is a bad wager considering that this is a $120k Chad Brown first-timer debuting at greater than a mile (a 24% angle), but even at half that I’m likely to push the chips in a little. I worry that he’s debuting at the Big A instead of south Florida at this time of year, but we’ve seen him do this far too many times to bail here. The favorite will be very tough, so I’ll be playing these two to round out the early pick 5 and probably try to connect on a chalky exacta. 4-5-3
Race 6
8 – Thesis – he hasn’t fired a bad shot since July and seems to enjoy Aqueduct (7:2-2-0), and I love his chances from an outside draw in a field that should show some early zip. Lezcano keeps the mount after a noble effort in OC40k company, so I fully expect another solid ride on the class drop and I think the gelding’s versatility will win the day. 8-7-2
Race 7
4 – Sicilia Mike – finally broke the slump at Aqueduct on 12/30 in his 20th career try over the surface, and though he only sports four career wins in a pretty nice field I really like the pace setup. He’s been putting in nice efforts in allowance and listed stakes company all fall and winter, and there’s a ton of speed in here. He has a very reasonable shot to make it two in row and pick them off late. 4-1-5
Race 8
3 – Montauk Traffic – this one looks like it could be a nice runner for the Linda Rice barn, and after a brutal debut at Laurel he came back at the Big A and rolled last month at better than 6-1 odds. He keeps Lezcano and showed the ability to rate last-out, which should be beneficial with a few of the favorites in here likely wanting the lead from the bell. This spot looks like it hits right between the eyes for both a pace set-up and the barn’s success off the short layoff, so let’s hope some others take money and we get something close to the 5/2 ML. 3-2-1
Race 9
7 – Five Eighteen – favorite looks beatable from the win-end in here after three rough starts at slightly better company, so why not a Pletcher first-timer with Lezcano in the irons? Spread to close the pick 5…. 7-1-5
Have a great Saturday everyone!
GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 532: 123-105-91, -17.3% ($1,064 wagered, $880.30 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 23.1%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 60.0%
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)