2019-2020 Aqueduct: 111: 25-22-20, -7.6% ROI ($222 wagered, $205.20 returned)
Race 1
2 – Continuation – the first two career starts were both over today’s mile distance at the Big A, and he came up just short on each occasion. He clearly has the speed to win in here, and he gets the rider upgrade to the front-running Carmouche. The last try found him four-wide on the turn, so maybe the inside draw will produce a better trip? 2-5-4
Race 2
1 – Love and Love – all five attempts at the one-turn mile have occurred at Aqueduct and she’s hit the exacta in four of them, so she certainly enjoys the local oval. She’s been in allowance company for six straight races and I appreciate the experience in a field that has a lot of runners coming up from the maiden and claiming ranks. With some speed signed on, she might be the one with the versatility and sit the perfect stalking trip inside. 1-6-5
Race 3
5 – Bronxville – on a pretty nice card this race comes up pretty empty with talent, but I do see a possible loose-lead trip for Carmouche. I’ve tried this before with this one in this very situation, but I don’t see much speed and the price will probably be fair in what will likely be a wide open tote board. He seemed to like the stretch-out to the mile last time, so maybe this is finally the spot for him to beat winners. 5-9-2
Race 4
1 – Ghosting Kim – broke terribly in the debut but finished well enough to give some hope heading into the return trip. With a clean break the $445k Ghostzapper filly should give a better account of herself for a barn that connects with 20% of their maiden second-timers. Manny Franco in the irons today as well. 1-2-7
Race 5
1 – Freudian Sip – this gelding has been very sharp in both starts since the claim was put in by Linda Rice, almost scoring against a similar allowance field a few weeks back. He’s been in the money in three of five starts at six panels and he’s versatile enough to fit into any pace scenario. The layoff fits very well here for the barn, connecting with 25% of runners second-off 45-180 days. 1-5-9
Race 6
11 – A d’Oro – bumped at the break but battled on nicely in career start #2 and comes into today sitting a possible big effort second-off the layoff for the Brad Cox barn (30% 2nd-off over 180). She looks like she has some speed, so let’s see her get loose up front and avoid trouble for the first time in the young career. 11-13-8
Race 7
5 – Wicked Trick – there is speed all over the yard in this race, and Linda Rice could have the runner best suited to take advantage of a battle up front. He’s three for three over the Big A dirt and has a win over the distance, not to mention he comes into today on a six-race winning streak dating back to July. I’m not sure what price we’re going to get, but I’m not betting against this hard-knocker until he gets picked off. 5-3-7
Race 8
3 – Wonderful Light – hasn’t had a bad effort in almost 18 months and seems to love the six furlongs with four wins in nine starts (and in the trifecta in four others). His last three starts have been in listed and G3 company, so this shouldn’t be a shock to the system when the gates open. Mind Control will likely be the favorite in here, and deservedly so, but I think the value is on the Michelle Nevin-trained runner who gets the major rider upgrade to the aggressive Luis Saez. 3-4-2
Race 9
5 – Lake Avenue – I’ve liked this one since the debut back in November, and it feels like the classic build-up type for Bill Mott who finds himself in the thick of the Oaks chase here. She was very good going two-turns in the G2 Demoiselle in early December and should appreciate the slight cutback off the layoff, and as much as I would normally look to beat horses like this I just don’t see any challengers on the win end barring a no-show. 5-4-7
Race 10
8 – Montauk Traffic – this one just looks loaded doesn’t he? Two straight wins in stalking fashion over seven panels, gets the slight stretch-out to the one-turn mile and comes in off two bullet works over the Belmont training track. Linda Rice connects on 28% of her sprint / route runners, and an insane 55% with runners stretching out after two sprint efforts. On the path to Kentucky for sure, and I think today will be a BIG step in that direction.
8-6-10
Have a great Saturday everyone!
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Week 1 (11/2) – 10: 2-2-2, -30% ($20 wagered, $16 returned)
Week 2 (11/9) – 10: 0-1-4, -100% ($20 wagered, zero returned)
Week 3 (12/7) – 10: 2-2-2. -53% ($20 wagered, $9.40 returned)
Week 4 (12/14) – 9: 5-1-1, +98.89% ($18 wagered, $35.80 returned)
Week 5 (12/21) – 9: 2-2-2, even ($18 wagered, $17.90 returned)
Week 6 (12/28) – 9: 0-4-1, -100% ($18 wagered, zero returned)
Week 7 (1/4) – 9: 4-0-1, +97.7% ($18 wagered, $35.90 returned)
Week 8 (1/11) – 9: 2-4-2, +18.9% ($18 wagered, $21.40 returned)
Week 9 (1/25) – 9: 1-1-2, -56.1% ($18 wagered, $7.90 returned)
Week 10 (2/8) – 9: 2-2-1. +11.1% ($18 wagered, $20 returned)
Week 11 (2/15) – 9: 2-2-2, +30.5% ($18 wagered, $23.50 returned)
Week 12 (2/29) – 9: 3-1-0, +7.8% ($18 wagered, $19.40 returned)
GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 559: 130-110-94, -15.6% ($1,118 wagered, $943.20 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 23.3%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.7%
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)