Another Aqueduct Friday with 8 races and some decent fields. We see the 2020 debut of Belmont Stakes winner Sir Winston in race 7 who is revving up for his 2020 campaign. Last week was pretty successful with 4 on top winners, let’s keep the hot streak going today! As always be sure to follow me on twitter @cjfelts87. Let’s get it!
Longshot play(s) of the day: Race 4 #5
Best Bet(s): Race 3 #6, Race 5 #2
Through 22 Daily Gallop writeups Total: 217-56-39-49 (26% win, 66% ITM)
Aqueduct meet totals: 68-20-7-18, $1.93 ROI for every $2 bet ($136 wagered = $131.50 returned)
Race 1 MCL 25k fillies and mares 4up, 6.5 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 4,6 B: 7
Top pick- #6 Hickory Made
- Seems to have the best early speed in a race with a bunch of slow horses. Has 2 races at Aqueduct where he was competitive both times against maiden special level horses. Will try to beat the favorite here.
Second choice- #4 Shannon’s Girl
- Heavy 3-5 ML favorite after a good second against similar 2 back. Stepped up a bit in class and maybe that was too much as she drops back down again and she’ll certainly be tough to beat if she’s on her A-game. 3-5 is way too short a price for me so I’ll be playing against but she is the horse to beat.
Underneath- #7 Funderella
Race 2 MCL 50k, fillies 3yo, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 4 B: 5,6
Top pick- #4 Maru
- This race I will be siding with the 3-5 shot drawing the 4 hole. Has been racing against state bred maiden claimers and now finds a nice race against open company. Has speed and may just wire the field against a couple first time starters and others who have not done much. Single.
Second choice- #6 Women Not Easy
- Drops in for a tag coming in off a long layoff having not raced since last May, the class relief sure will help but I’m not quite sure she’ll be able to fire first off the layoff and gets a low percentage rider in Julio Correa. Still, in the money is a pretty likely scenario for her.
Underneath- #5 All About Reyana
Race 3 CLM 12.5k, fillies and mares 4up, 6 furlongs
Multi Race- A: 3,6 B: 2,4
Top pick- #6 Malibu Mischief
- Has a ton of speed and will be hard to beat if she can run to her back class- she beat 32k claimers going this distance back in August. Dylan Davis has won on her twice before and stays on today for a hot trainer in Michael Miceli. Will be tough to beat in this spot.
Second choice- #3 Keep Your Distance
- Second off the claim for Gary Gullo and the drop in class should help her. They tried to move her up against 25k claimers where she ran a pretty decent race and now drops down to 12.5k claimers with a jock upgrade to Eric Cancel. The trainer/jock combo has a positive ROI over the past year.
Underneath- #2 Malarkey, #6 Malibu Mischief, #7 Nowtina River
Race 4 MSW 60k state bred fillies 3yo, 1 mile
Multi Race- A: 2,5 B: 4,7
Top pick- #5 Rosey’s Invasion
- I was pleasantly surprised to find this filly is 12-1 ML which seems like a huge overlay to me. She stays at the same level and adds blinkers after flashing speed on debut. Jock upgrade to Eric Cancel, the work tab has been good and this isn’t the strongest of maiden special fields.
Second choice- #2 Saffron Girl
- She is stepping up from maiden claimers to face maiden special competition and is 5-2 ML for Linda Rice. Maybe they know something we don’t but Linda’s runners do well second time out and maybe she just didn’t like the slop that day. Dylan Davis stays aboard but I see no value on her at 5-2. To me it makes more sense if she was 12-1 and Rosey’s Invasion was 5-2.
Underneath- #4 Beautiful Karen, #7 Mystic Moves
Race 5 CLM 8k 4up, 1 mile
Multi Race- A: 2,8 B: 5,7
Top pick- #2 Where’s Rudy
- He’s quickly returning to action after running against 10k claimers on the 25th. Rudy Rodriguez as of late is 3 for 10 with runners returning in a week plus good numbers when adding blinkers. Certainly will be tough to beat if he can run to his back class- won beat 40k N2L claimers by 8 lengths this time last year going the same mile distance with a 96 beyer (today’s par is 77).
Second choice- #8 Captain Frost
- Should be considered in this field but my question is why are they keeping him at the same level if he just beat 8k claimers by 5 lengths? Doesn’t make sense to me but it is Linda Rice and Jose Lezcano, plus he has speed drawing from the outside so he should be competitive.
Underneath- #5 Poshsky, #6 Holy Week, #7 Business Cycle
Race 6 ALW 64k n1x state bred 4up, 1 mile
Multi Race- A: 4,6 B: 7,8
Top pick- #4 Playwright
- Closer type will need some pace to run into but has been competitive at the n1x level, in good form for Danny Gargan and Manny Franco. Opens as the 7-5 ML favorite.
Second choice- #6 Bebe Banker
- Has speed and should be contesting the lead early. This is not the toughest n1x field and you could argue he is classier than others in the field.
Underneath- #7 Tizgame, #8 Big Thicket
Race 7 AOC 80k 4up, 1 mile
Multi Race- A: 4,6 B: 2
Top pick- #6 Leitone
- May be the best speed horse in the field and has the class to back it up too. In a race where you could just hit the all button 5-2 is a nice price but he may go off as the post time favorite. Lezcano rides for Jason Servis.
Second choice- #4 Brass Compass
- Don’t count out this 8-1 shot for Mark Casse, he’ll send him out with stablemate Sir Winston who I will be avoiding since he will probably be overbet. Stretches out and will need to handle the surface switch from the Woodbine synthetic but there is some price potential here.
Underneath- #2 Sir Winston
Race 8 MCL 25k 4up, 1 mile
Multi Race- A: 1,7 B: 6,8
Top pick- #1 Informed Consent
- Stretching out for Linda Rice after a decent debut in the slop, now has the right to improve as he draws the rail again and Eric Cancel stays aboard. 9-2 ML.
Second choice- #7 Sneads
- Has failed as the favorite for the past 2 races with decent beyers that would make him competitive here, willing to give him another chance and he has yet to miss the board at this distance in 4 starts so at least include underneath.
Underneath- #6 Justice of War, #8 Mr. Mike, #10 Splitting Eights