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Top Pick Results 2019: 90-33-20-14
2019 Overall: -$1.40
Top Pick Results overall: 131-43-32-16
Race 1: 4,1,3
Maven is a first time starter sired by Triple Crown winner American Pharoah and while initially I was going to try and beat this one I decided against it after really looking at his workouts. He has a few bullets and a few that are just solid works. This one seems quick out of the gate and with the race only being 4-1/2f should be tough to catch up front.
Of the two Pletcher trainees here I prefer Analyze Your Risk over Managing Risk. Analyze Your Risk is sired by Overanalyze who has been solid with 2 year old’s as a sire and this one has some good works. He also gets Irad in the irons first time out which is always a huge plus.
Women Not Easy is sired by Fast Anna and for those of you who don’t remember him, he nearly upset The Big Beast in the 2014 running of the Kings Bishop now the Allen Jerkens. This one gets Javier in the iron’s first time out which is a positive sign. I think this one will need a start or 2, but with the other two choices in here likely being short odds I think this is your best value.
Race 2: 4
Arewehavingfunyet is the morning line 2-5 favorite and rightfully so against this field. She would need to break very poor not to be the controlling pace here and I do not see anyone in this field being able to stay with her early. She should be your single for your early Pick 4 and 5 tickets.
Race 3: 2,3,4 *Off Turf -7,81
Blowout (GB) took a big step forward last time in the G3 Florida Oaks where she just missed in her 2nd career start and today I think she takes another step forward. I love her pedigree and she gets Javier in the irons who has been Chad’s go to jockey for about a year now. Chad does have La Feve (Fr) in here as well but I prefer the lightly raced Blowout.
La Feve (Fr) is the other Chad Brown trainee and she gets Irad in the irons for the 3rd time today. In both of her North American starts so far she has run well and could easily beat this field, but has run the same race twice without improving. She may not need to improve to beat this field today, but of the Chad Brown horses I prefer Blowout who looks to be stepping up.
Feel Glorious (GB) goes out for Clement today and if it wasn’t for Cancel being in the irons would’ve probably been my top choice. She won her North American debut back on March 9th impressively at Gulfstream and today is stretching out which I love to see on turf. I can’t get past Cancel in the irons though here and for that reason will only be on my multi tickets.
* If this race comes off the turf, It Justhitthe Wire is sired by Bernardini who has been an excellent mud sire and already has an impressive win over a sloppy track.
Race 4: 1,5,7
Hay Field has had excuses in his last 2 efforts and with the likely wet track today I think she gets back to her good form. Career she is 5-3-2-0 over a sloppy track and with the 1 post today should not be forced 6 wide agains ththis field. She also gets Manny Franco back in the irons today who has 2 wins and a 2nd in his last 3 races on her.
Letmetakethiscall gets Irad in the irons today for Rudy and together at Aqueduct this combo is winning at a 31% clip. Her last 2 races make her very competitive against this field and she does have a win over a sloppy Aqueduct track back in February of 2018.
My Roxy Girl always seems to go off as solid value and always seems to find her way on the board. She has finished in the money in 18 of 27 career starts including 10 seconds and is 11 for 15 in the money here at Aqueduct. At a morning line of 8-1 she is a horse you should not leave off of your exotic wagering tickets.
Race 5: 1,12,6 *Off Turf -6,14
Shady Shady Shady is making her 3 year old debut and I am taking a shot with her off the layoff. She broke her maiden at this distance at Saratoga breaking from the 10 post and had Johnny V in the irons that day. Yes today she gets a downgrade in Jockey to Hernandez, but I think it is a positive sign that she got Johnny V back as a 2 year old. No one lays over this field so taking a shot with a price.
Pound Note just has not been good enough her last 2 races and today the 12 post does her no favors. Yes she gets a jockey upgrade to Irad which could be the difference and her last race on paper is more than good enough to win here. I put her 2nd because unless she is that much better then the rest the 12 post will be tough to overcome.
Smiles From Sadie is going from Dirt to Turf today for Rudy and while he is not particularly great with this move, she has not finished worse than 2nd since he claimed her back in August. She is one that should be on all exotic tickets. If this race comes off the turf however she will be my top choice as she has been running well on the dirt, and does have a solid 2nd in her career over a sloppy track at Saratoga.
Race 6: 2,1,7
Its All Relevant has won 3 in a row over this Aqueduct track and I do not see why today should be any different. Looks to be lone speed and already has 5 wins at this distance in his career. Very tough favorite to go against here.
Mills is the only horse in this race who I think can beat Its All Relevant, but will need another to pressure Its All Relevant early and sadly I do not see that happening. If it does Mills should be a huge threat in the stretch, but if it doesn’t I do not see Mills catching lone speed.
Candy Promises is very inconsistent, but if the good Candy Promises shows up it could change the whole dynamic of this race. I think Kendrick will bring out the best in Candy Promises today but like Mills, prefers to sit off the pace and catching lone speed today may be tough, especially if the track is wet.
Race 7: 8,7,2 *Off Turf -1,3,1A
Nice Tune is shipping in for Herold Whylie and as a closer I think will apricate the bit of added distance today. He comes from way back, and against a suspect field I will take a shot that he gets up late.
Spectrolite will be the favorite if this race stays on the turf, but coming in off a 16 month layoff it is hard to use this one on top so I will try and beat him. I will use him in my multi’s though as if he runs back to his 2017 form the rest are running for 2nd here.
Spring to the Sky has run well against much better over his 52 race career, but man I think it is time to retire this 10 year old gelding. Winless in both 2017 and 2018 I am honestly surprised that he is debuting in 2019. On class alone he should be able to finish in the money here, but I hope even with a win that this is it for the veteran.
* If this race comes off the turf, Sudden Surprise is one of my favorite NY breds and loves the sloppy track. Between him and Felix in Fabula it is hard to see a scenario where the 1 entry doesn’t win on the main track, especially if both run.
Race 8: 3,4,6
Rally Cap gets a bit of class relief today and gets Manny Franco back in the irons which is a positive sign. He is a new gelding after his 3rd place finish her last month and with a bullet work after being gelded I think Rally Cap will be tough to catch here.
Stink Man was claimed by Linda Rice after a win in his debut and Linda is 30% with 1st off the claim. He also gets Irad in the irons today which is a positive. He is stepping a bit up in class here, but does have a win over this track at the distance.
Kadens Courage has finished in the money in 8 of 9 career starts including in 3 of 4 stakes races Finished 2 lengths behind Rally Cap 2 back, but does get Javier in the irons today which is always a positive sign here at Aqueduct.
Race 9: 12,610
I’m not a huge fan of Race 9 so I will only use the race in multi’s, but if I had to pick a horse on top it would be Zechariah who is stretching back out which I love to see with horses sired by Kittens Joy. Only using the 12 on top if the race stays on the turf.
Off the turf I would use 2,4,6,9,10,11,13 in my multis and I would just let your multi tickets ride here and I would not try and play one of these runners straight on top.