We are handicapping for wet and off. If some of the non-stake turf races stay on then make changes accordingly.
Race 1 – 2- Royal Edition has the look of a career maiden being 0 for 17, but many of those losses came against tougher company than he faces today, and he was still competitive in many of those starts. Tossing the last race off short rest. Now third off the layoff and with a more desired four weeks in-between races, we expect an optimal effort today under Saez. 3- Private Boone has hit the board in three of his last four at Turfway over the winter in special weight company. Now drops in for a tag. Toss the dirt race at Mahoney as it was against winners and was a hopeless 52-1 there. The race at Churchill in the fall shows he can dirt enough to be competitive versus this soft group. 7- Postimpressionist drops back to $30K company and adds blinks. Has speed to be in the mix early. Maybe hangs around late???
Race 2 – 7- Romani shows some preciousness and ability in winning on debut at Monmouth Park last summer. Wesley Ward is dangerous off the layoff dropping these ‘few start two year olds laid off till spring of their three year old season’ in aggressively. Love the Blinkers off. Expect a gate to wire win with this one. 8- Channing Road opened a clear lead at this condition/level last out on 4/4 here. Switches to a more experienced rider. Hoping this guy can dole out that speed a little more evenly and save some more energy for deep stretch. 4- Tolly Ho was a trainer scratch of the aforementioned 4/4 race, so that’s why we faded to third. Two back was a special weight winner at Turfway. Gets Lasix and Luis Saez. Homebred seems to be spotted aggressively.
Race 3 – 3- Sweetest Appeal ran her best race at Fair Grounds over the winter under the similar conditions of today and that being freshened up and catching an off track. Couple steady breezes at Churchill after shipping up from Fair Grounds tell us this one should come with a good effort. Won’t take much to win this weak race for the level. 2- Captain Livi has been laid off since January and switches from the Michael Dilger barn to Andrew McKeever. Form shows a couple underneath performances against special weight company in New York last fall, but the speed figures in those races came up a little on the slow side. If McKeever has this one race fit off the 90 dayish layoff then she has a big win chance. 4- Have No Fear drops in for a tag for the first time as well for Mike Maker and Tyler Gaffalione. Needs to get a better start today to have a better win chance.
Race 4 – These pricks are for ‘on’ the turf. 6- Nessy has been facing better company in his prior races dating back to 2017 than what he faces today. We think the boggy course won’t be an issue. Ian Wilkes will have this one ready for a good effort today. Julien should give him a nice trip and every chance to win if good enough. We’ll side with class edge he brings with him. 4- Shahroze has been laid up since June of last year when winning a Grade 3 at Woodbine. Not sure this one will like the boggy going today, and concerns about the layoff. 1- Lamartine ships in from Brazil for trainer Steve Assmussen. Gets Geroux in the irons. Kind of a wild card. If live on the tote probably suggests this one will have a say in the outcome.
Race 4 – These picks are for ‘off’ the turf. Race for the turf only drew six horses. We expect some scratches, so this could be a three or four horse field. 1- Lamartine has a debut dirt win on his form. This one comes to America and goes to the prominent Steve Assmussen barn. Three for five lifetime including a few scores against Group 1 company in South America, which usually translates to being competitive in allowance company in North America. 4- Shahroze has a nice sloppy track second at Aqueduct in November of 2017. That race will probably make this one go favored off the long layoff. Hot riding Rosario signed on. Projects to be a heavy favorite in a small off the turf field.
Race 5 – 3- Flat Awesome Jenny goes turf to dirt, blinkers on, and drops in class off a brief freshening for high win percentage trainer Michael Tomlinson. We think could get a little lost at the window and be a value play at 6-1 territory. Also boasts a terrific 444 Tomlinson wet number, so the off track today should suit. 8- My Midnight Affair drops in for $40,000N2L company off a maiden claiming $50,000 win a few weeks ago here. Projects to stalk from the outside and make a run at the pace setters down the lane. 5- Tap The Cat won on debut back in March for maiden claiming $30,000 company at Oaklawn. Wiring a full field of 12 on debut even at that lower level is not easy and showed this one can be productive if spotted aggressively like she is again today. Projects to set the pace early and try to hold on late.
Race 6 – 2- Hollywood Strike is a ‘seconditis’ horse with a lifetime record of 23-1-5-6. But we think today is the day for this one to break through his N2L condition. Think the 9 furlongs is exactly what this gelding wants. Was third going 9 furlongs against allowance company at Aqueduct in the fall. That race repeated gets him the win today. Possesses positional speed and the wet track should be no issue as well. 5- Lethal Levy has been laid off since an open length maiden claiming $15,000 win against three year olds only back in January at the Fair Grounds. We think this guy will appreciate the 9 furlongs. Get’s Jose Ortiz. Has a steady breeze pattern coming into this race. 6- Sensational Sam has shown he runs faster speed figures over the turf, but has proven to be somewhat effective on dirt in his few tries over it. We’ll give him a look as well for the likeable trainer Charles ‘Scooter’ Dickey.
Race 7 – 8- Really Proud has a nice improving speed figure pattern to her 2019 form. Facing better in Florida in her last few. Catches an extra half furlong and course more conducive to her off the pace running style. We think she will take to the boggy turf, but that does remain to be a question mark with her and many others in here today. 6- Pastime has been a consistent sort at this level. Had a good run last fall here against similar. We project to see an effort similar to that fall race today under Rosario. 2- Mominou last out was fourth behind Morticia who took a stake here last Saturday. She could blossom into a nice turf sprinting filly now as a four year old. She could end up being the best filly in the race. Will try to take them gate to wire.
Race 7 – These picks are for off the turf. 7- Flame Mingo is now four year old Blame filly who took a $75,000 three year old only sprint stake at Mahoney Valley last spring. Laid off for nearly a year. Boasts a solid breeze pattern over the Turfway poly coming into this one. Think this trainer made a weather play when entering here in hopes it came off the turf. 6- Pastime ran a big race under similar conditions of today last fall at Churchill when just getting ran down late. Rosario in the irons. Will likely go favored. 4- Juju’s Specialgirl just won an N1X off the turf race at Fair Grounds on 2-18. The speed fig earned that day is cut below what we project the top two picks to run today, so will need to step forward off that win to score today.
Race 8 – 7- American Mandate has faced some tough company in New York over the winter. In December beat a future graded stakes winner in Haikal. Possesses tactical speed to be on or near the lead. Has competitive speed figures. Should go close at the wire. 6- Quick Entry has been laid off since the maiden win in the slop at Churchill in September. Was a solid fourth on debut at Saratoga. Breeze pattern coming in suggests this one can be in the mix off the layoff. And we think the talent is under the hood. 10- Distant Shore has also faced tough company in his career. You see Grade One winning Derby hopeful Improbable in his form lines. We faded to third because we thought the second at 4-5 in a four horse field at Fair Grounds in March was a little disappointing. But the race came up fast on speed figures, so we wouldn’t knock anyone trying to make a win case for this guy. Jose Ortiz in the irons. 59 and change breeze on 4/11 at Churchill. Tom’s got the screws tightened down for the Churchill Downs Racing Club to make a score today. If he’s good enough will remain to be seen. Nice race overall! If the 13 AE draws in, then include on the multi’s, maybe even consider singling.
Race 9- We’re handicapping this for on what will be a very soft turf course. 10- Zulu Alpha has been three for three since being claimed and ran in these ‘3 turn’ turf marathon races. Productive over the fast turf, good turf, and yielding turf. So no reason to suggest he won’t like the going today. Course and distance winner at this level. Lots to like, except the short price. Will need to work out a trip from the 10 post and the short run to that first of three turns. We can forgive the last two for 5- Canessar. Last out was too close to the pace and had to steady. Two back was bumped, checked, and wide. Speed figures earned three and four back both in marathon turf races are quite competitive against todays group. Maybe a little cleaner mid-pack trip where this one can relax with no bother for much of the race will make him produce a top effort today. 8- Red Knight closed from 19 lengths back in the two mile Allen Jerkins at Gulfstream last December. Has been given the winter and shows back up with a steady work-tab we think suggests this guy can come with a top effort today under Luis Saez. These turf marathoners are like fine wine and seem to get better with age. So now a five year old maybe this New York bred can be one to major players in this division this year.
Race 10 – 8- Where Paradise Lay ran two big races to begin the career at Gulfstream in the winter. Freshened up off a nose loss against similar. Earned a solid 81 BSF in that race. Should take to the slop. We project this one moves forward off that last race and produces an effort that wins most maiden races at any judication. This race looks to have lots of depth so pay close attention to who comes out of it in their next races. 6- Into Morocco gave way while hooking a wide trip on debut at the Fair Grounds. Bullet breeze at Churchill on 4/13 signals Dallas has this one ready to run a big race today second up. 4- Fortune’s Fool busted the exacta and tri’s when running second on debut at nearly 16-1. Any improvement off that race makes this one very capable of winning this race. Both 1- Highest Honors and 3- Strong Market are live looking firsters worth consideration for prominent jockeys, trainers, and owners.
No racing Sunday in observance of Easter. Just Wednesday through Friday left in the spring meet and the action moves to Churchill Downs. We’ll see back here next Saturday for opening night under the twin spires.