GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 468: 107-91-80, -19.7% ($936 wagered, $752.00 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 22.9%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.4%
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Week 1 (11/2) – 10: 2-2-2, -30% ($20 wagered, $16 returned)
Week 2 (11/9) – 10: 0-1-4, -100% ($20 wagered, zero returned)
TOTAL: 20: 2-3-6, -65% ROI ($40 wagered, $14 returned)
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)
Race 1
8 – Onward – Jose keeps the mount after a front-running try that came up just short last month, and I think he could find himself on the lead again here. There isn’t a ton of speed, and although Chad has the big favorite to his outside I think there’s a loose lead to be had in the opener today. 8-9-1
Race 2
4 – Atomic Blonde – she’s made the nice natural progression towards the first stakes try today, and I think she gets an ideal stalk and pounce trip for Saez. Proven at both the distance and the Big A sod, she has a big chance at a nice price. 4-11-2
Race 3
5 – California Night – Mike Maker brings this one back off some rough starts, but the work on 11/27 was sharp and the horse has three wins in six tries locally. Jose takes the mount for the first time and he should be aggressive from the bell. Price could drift up with those ugly running lines too, so call this one a hunch value play with the positive jockey change. 5-1-4
Race 4
1 – Rocky Policy – as much as I like the presumptive favorite Fire Key, I’m drawn to the stalk and pounce running lines that this Robert Hess-trained mare has put up throughout the year. She’s drawn inside and will need a clean break in a big field, but she’s won at this level two back and keeps Javier for the return to stakes company. 1-7-2
Race 5
1 – Default Rate – this one is simple for me, as Chad brings back this young colt for his third career try after being DQ’d from the top spot in his debut. His last effot was also solid, losing a stretch duel after going 4-wide. I think the inside draw and his early speed will get him to the turn on the lead, one that he won’t relinquish on his way to graduation today. Like the Mark Henning debut runner (9, Or’effice) to round out the exacta. 1-9-6
Race 6
4 – Another Broad – probably a reach trying to beat 3-5 ML favorite Spiced Perfection, but alas… here I am. Todd Pletcher sends this filly out after a nice effort in Grade 3 company last month, and cuts her back to a mile. She’s got a win at Aqueduct and two over today’s distance, so why not take a swing against a big favorite shipping east after a rough Breeder’s Cup try a month ago? 4-3-5
Race 7
10 – Trash Talker – this is a very tough race to see in the middle of the late pick-5 and you almost certainly have to spread to survive, but on the win-end I’m going with the Dermot Magner colt with some experience under his belt vs. the debut runners. His debut back in September was a valiant front-running effort before coming up short, then he faltered in a turf try before another nice race back on the dirt. Here is today in start #4, and I think Joel Rosario staying aboard says a lot about his chances. 10-12-1
Race 8
6 – Critical Value – in a great betting race I’m leaning towards the Englehart / Irad combo and this young filly coming off three very nice efforts in New York. She clearly has the running style you can count on in big races with the ability to both break quick and rate behind speed, two attributes that should pay huge dividends in this big field. I like the gradual climb to graded stakes company, handling her business quickly in the maiden ranks then backing it up with a dominant win in the listed stakes try at Belmont in October. Works have been huge since and I think she’s sitting on a big one today. 6-12-2
Race 9
2 – Forza Di Oro – this one feels like a Bill Mott special, and definitely one that could make waves on the Derby trail after today. Two MSW races to open the career, the second of which a beautiful stalking trip at 1 & 1/16th. Wheeling back today for the extra furlong, and I think he’s one on the rise. Price should stay fair in a wide-open betting race. 2-3-8
Race 10
If anyone follows me on twitter then you might know that I have immense affection for Maxmium Security. I loved him all the way through the Derby trail last year, and I think his story is one to be celebrated instead of criticized. He’s back today against older for the second time, and the prize is likely the Eclipse Award if he can find the wire first in a tough field. I actually think Spun to Run will try to wire them, and that has to be respected after an ultra-impressive BC win last month. I want Max just off him, similar to the Haskell trip, and let’s see them lock horns at the top of the lane. 5-6-1 for me, and I’m using Whitmore and Looking at Bikinis defensively in the pick 5 in case this thing melts down. C’mon Max… ONE TIME.
Have a great Saturday everyone!