Race 1-The opening race on Saturday June 13th at Woodbine does not appear to offer much value. The #1 Skygaze is probably targeting bigger races for 3 year old fillies going two turns. She has dominated both her races on the tapeta and she could easily win here. Skygaze has speed and can wire them. Winter raced horses for Mark Casse have the fitness edge and the works indicate she is holding form. His other runner #5 Diamond Sparkles could the hit the board and seems classy. However, she is trying a new surface off of terrible form and therefore I will pass on her. #6 Avie’s Samurai could run a good race off her solid Beyers as a two year old and is a very likely winner.
Betting Ideas: In this race I would try to separate the top two horses(#1 and #6) in exactas or pick the one I prefer and single in a bet like the double. A win bet at 2-1 on SkyGaze seems fair. Exacta recommendations include the #2 and #3 who could both hit the board off the bench if they improve from their races as two year olds. If the odds seem too low I would just pass on this race.
Race 2– The second race features a heavy morning line favorite in the #4 at even money. She did her best running going longer on the turf and has no speed whatsoever. She is going 6.5 furlongs on Tapeta and this race does not set up for her at all. New players should take the habit of paying attention to which jockeys and trainers are doing good lately. Knowing the track trends also helps make sense of things. After watching the early part of the Woodbine meet it is evident that horses running towards the front early have been outrunning their odds on Synthetic. The best rider on opening weekend was Emma-Jayne Wilson because of her aggressiveness. I am upgrading her horses until the trend changes. I would not be surprised to see Wilson stay towards the front on the outside with #10 Vespolina.
With that being said, #7 Sayso is the one I am looking to bet because of her speed. The jockey won at 10-1 in wire to wire fashion on Sunday and I am hoping he will do the same with Sayso. She is a little slow(Best Beyer 60). Being a four year old against mostly three year olds gives me confidence she will have an edge. Her forwardly placed position will also help and she is 8-1.Another 4 year old I like is #3 Katla’s Fury. Her winning Beyer of 69 at this distance last August makes her close to the best in this field. Despite a lack of speed, she might still be worth using in multi-race bets at a juicy 12-1.
Race 3– The first two year old race of 2020 at Woodbine features a second time starter for Wesley Ward who will take heavy money(#8 Tequila Queen). This filly ran ok on debut and has the edge of having raced. Wesley Ward has not been too hot with his 2YOs and I would not take her at short odds. #10 Carpe Horseshoe comes into this race off of winter training and very fast workouts. She seems to be ready to roll. I would bet a dollar on her given Wilson’s aggressiveness and this being such a short race. I also recommend watching the board and adjusting accordingly. Pass race for me. Honestly, I usually avoid these races as a player since first time starters are difficult to predict.
Race 4– Big field does not always mean big price and race four is one of those handicapping traps. This maiden special weight looks to have a solid favorite in #10 Bold Victory and one should not expect chaos. He ran a Beyer of 78 in a nice seasonal debut down in New York before racing was shutdown in March. The horse has worked steadily since ;ran nice races last fall here at Woodbine; has a solid jockey/trainer combination, and will be forwardly placed. The longer prices that intrigue me are #8 Olliemyboy and #2 Holyfield. Horses who are winter trained and raced always have a fitness edge over horses who had to stay in the freezing winters of Canada and could not train outdoors. Believe me, it is cold down here! Olliemyboy had that luxury when he ran fourth in a 7F event down in Tampa. Surprisingly, Arnaud Delacour ships him here for his second race. He has been training on a synthetic surface down at Fairhill and I suspect the trainer thinks he will like the Tapeta. I would be surprised if we get the 12-1 given connections. #2 Holyfield is 15-1 and had excuses last time out in his second race as a two year old. He ran wide from an outside post and was up close to a fast pace. His 61 Beyer last year is not a bad number and his trainer is sharp. #13 Embrace My Uncle ran all winter in Florida and never embarrassed himself on dirt.
How do we bet it? I would say to use all three horses in the pick 4 or perhaps a double. However, the amount you place on the 10 should be higher than the others. For example, you could do a 1$ pick 4 with the #10 versus a 40 cent ticket using .Bet more strongly on the 8 versus the 2. #2 is an exacta candidate but could also be used in small doubles or picks. #13 will be a defensive play for me in doubles and in the second position of exactas.
3$ Exacta 10 with 2,8,13, Double players: 4$ DD 10 with 6
2$ Exacta 8 with 2,10,13, 3$ DD 8 with 6
1$ Exacta 2 with 8,10,13, 2$ DD 2 with 6
2$ DD 10 with 8
1$ DD 2,8 with 8
Race 5- The fifth race offers a ton of speed and I believe this might favour horses who run from off the pace. #2 Sister Peacock is a speedball who will be heavily backed and I am going to toss her from the win position here. I am leaning on two horses who figure to sit off the pace. #6 Sav ran an 84 Beyer going 6.5f two back and came back with another win to conclude her 3 year old campaign. She is tactical; likes the 7 furlong distance, and should get a beautiful trip outside of the inside speeds. Betting her at 4-1 would be a gift and I think we might actually get it given she is 8-1 ML. The other horse I liked is #8 Magic Spell at 12-1. She ran into the tough sprinter Foxy Belle on multiple occasions last season and ran some decent efforts. Look for her late if horses on the lead get tired. Could hit the exacta and might be good enough to pull off the upset. I will use both #6 and #8 in multi race wagers but I am leaning on #6 Sav for win bets and on top in exactas.
Race 6- It is not recommended to bet every race in this game if you want to be a winning player in the long run.I could not see past the favorite #7 Brass Compass. However, I will not bet on this race and you should do the same in any race you do not feel strongly about. Using #1,2,5,7,8, in the pick 4.
Race 7– The 100K Woodstock for three year olds going 6 Furlongs is an interesting stakes race. The #4 Clayton will be tough if he stays in the race. He won his only race by seven lengths with an 88 Beyer. Is poised for bigger and better things but winning would be a good way to start the season. He will have no problem tackling an extra furlong and has worked fast after wintering in Florida. The only other horse who can beat him is the #7 Untitled.He is fast and ran against Derby horses down in Aqueduct and Gulfstream this winter. I am sure the return to 6 furlongs will suit him but the Tapeta is an unknown. Ian Black’s Striking Moon(6) is the only one with a good price that interests me. I just get the feeling he is the type that will improve at three, and his works indicate he might be ready to fire off the bench. Watch and see how he does for next time going longer. Leaning heavily on the #4 and #7 to close out the pick 4. Might be worth using #6 Striking Moon on a 20 cent ticket and in the second position of exactas.
Race 8-The three year old filly stakes feature at 6 Furlongs might be even more interesting and competitive than the male stakes. There is quite a bit of speed in here but the horses who come from off the pace want more distance. I am going to watch closely for horses who are targeting the Woodbine Oaks later in the meet. Those horses include #5 Curlin’s Voyage and #7 Cool Shadows. I suppose both of them warrant consideration in this race but I fear they might be prepping.
My top pick is a logical contender here : #10 New York Groove. She should sit a beautiful stalking trip off the speeds and has the fastest numbers going 6.5 and 7 furlongs on synthetic surfaces. Ignore her last two races and hope she goes off at a palatable price. She has trained in fairhill while staying active in races this winter and is a horse you can probably single. Another inclusion is #2 Owlette: a speedball that can wire the field. I would not leave her off tickets even if I fear the pace will work against her. The #1 Take Charge Eh is also interesting. She will appreciate a return to shorter distances and Tapeta and could run in the top three. She is an underneath player at the minimum.
I recommend keying #10 and #2 in multi-race bets. I will be using the #10 New York Groove more prominently on pick 4 tickets. In exactas the #1, #5 , and #7 are interesting for second. Bigger budgets should consider numbers 1,5,7 as B horses in multi-race wagers.
Race 9-Is it as easy as the 9 in the 9th? Well… Kitchen Fire(9) projects to battle for the lead with #2 Marten River and the race could be determined within the opening quarter. If any of them can clear they might be long gone by the stretch. Marten River appears a touch slower than Kitchen Fire but the break is key. #2 Marten River’s prior races indicate that he needs the lead and actually prefers to be loose in front. This is a worry given the presence of other speed. Both horses must be included since I am going to assume that speed is still an edge in these sprint races.
I prefer the #9 Kitchen Fire because he has run fast sprints going 5-6 furlongs on turf, dirt, and synthetic over the winter. #7 Call me Wally is the class of the field and will benefit from a stalking trip if the two speeds hookup. He fits this condition perfectly and is 2 for 2 at the distance. The concerns surrounding him are with his trainer off of long layoffs. I do not love him in here and will make him a B type horse given he will be bet. #3 Walkabout Creek is another who will figure on my tickets. The distance specialist has been winning against inferior competition but closed out 2019 with three consecutive victories and that should not be ignored. His workouts are sensational and perhaps he will pick off where he left off to start his 2020 campaign. The price is too good and the race sets up well for him. My main tickets will feature numbers 2,3,9. My smaller backup tickets will include the numbers 1 and 7. Anything at 3-1 or above will be a win bet on #9 for me.
Race 10–Weed Be Happy if this gal could get to the wire first in the first leg of the late double. Number 7(Weed Be Happy) is making her first start as a 4 year old after an abbreviated three year old season in which she beat the favorite in this race #8 Monastery Lane after a year away from the races. We are hoping lightning strikes twice for this filly and her numbers indicate that she could move forward if she is sound. Handicapping Woodbine early requires a careful attention to workouts and fitness. That is why I am upgrading the #11 Miss Behave despite her poor form at Gulfstream over the winter going 5 Furlongs. Her first three career races were at Woodbine as a three year old and I like all three. She can give a solid effort at a track and distance where she produced her best numbers. I also think she will be more forwardly placed this time given that she was only three lengths off the pace in those speed crazy 5 Furlong turf sprints at Gulfstream.
Lastly, I would use #4 American Tap in multi-race wagers despite her being a three year old facing older. She ran a respectable 69 Beyer in her first start this year and that was in a short sprint at Gulfstream: something she does not want to do. She will be much better at 6.5f. A slight improve second time out makes her a contender. I will try to bet doubles with the #7 Weed be Happy and #11Miss Behave as keys.
Race 11– If you are familiar with Woodbine you will know that the final race is always a loaded field with many possible scenarios. This absolute skull buster consists of Maiden optional claimers coming off long layoffs. I would use many horses in here if you play the pick four. I fancy #12 Red Return, who has two nice second place finishes last season with good speed figures. He has a series of drills coming into the race and switches to a rider who has had a solid start to the meet. I cannot help but think #6 Impressive Speed will run better than he did in his two starts down in Tampa this winter. He might show speed with blinkers on and is worth an include. Other horses to include are #3 Yola who has speed, a hot rider, and nice drills coming into his first start. #8 Firmly Grounded earned a nice debut figure and is the only four year old in the race, must include.
If you like the roll the dice you can try a four horse exacta box in this race. A fourth horse would be #2 Hey Congrats because of the workouts and the horse has speed. I do not have a strong opinion here and your guesses are probably better than mine in this final race.