Woodbine Thoughts – 2020/06/19 by Pascal Mucci
I must start by admitting that this is not the most exciting racing card for me. The field sizes are not big and the value is difficult to find as I do not see many long shots with chances. Therefore, I may not bet many races on Friday.
Race 1: The first two turn race of the season on the all weather track features 15K$ claimers who have only one win. I will try beating the favourite here with the #1 Dynamite Karma at 12-1. Winter raced horses have been doing quite well thus far and this one has a win with Patrick Husbands going a mile and 70 yards back in February at Tampa. I think this one should sit a good trip stalking a slow pace.
With the exception of Insider Trading(6), the #5 Break and Enter kept the best company last season and ran three decent races at this course and distance. The maiden breaking victory at this course and distance in which she earned a 69 Beyer makes her logical. However, I am not sure she will repeat it off the bench. Using her nonetheless in any exactas. I recommend #1 Dynamite Karma to win, place, and show if the price stays at 6-1 or above.
Race 2: Pass race for me. #7 Trinity Thumpah towers over this field. The drop in class is concerning and the works are not spectacular.
Race 3: This 7 Furlong event for non winners of 2 at the claiming price of 25k appears to have very little pace on paper. For that reason, I am going with #5 Miss Verrazano even if she beat maidens only 13 days ago. She looked like a good horse when she sat just off the pace and took over at the halfway point to draw away by six lengths. I usually do not take horses who are moving up in class and facing winners for the first time but I am making an exception given that Wilson elects to stay aboard and her 63 Beyer is solid against these. I feel like she will get a fairly easy lead in here and might be able to steal it once again.
The other horse I like is the #7 Soexotic who will sit an outside stalking trip in second. The only reason I did not use her on top is because of her short price. Other than that, she is logical and her numbers fit. I also like the fast 5 furlong breeze in preparation for this. #1 Benevida should come running late and could round out a chalky Trifecta. Play #5 Miss Verrazano and #7 Soexotic in multi race bets. I recommend a small win bet on Miss Verrazano if the price is in the 5-2 range.
Race 4: In my humble opinion, this is the best betting race of the day. I am looking forward to it because I think #4 Bode’s Marker is a vulnerable favourite off of an 11 month break and his questionable form on turf. He was heavily bet and got an easy lead in a very cheap race at Ellis park last summer and still managed to lose. He is the type of favourite I am always going to try and oppose. To do so, I am most interested in the #7 Am Prepared at the morning line price of 12-1. He won quite nicely when he finally got back to turf in the latter part of last year(September) after a series of Tapeta tries. His 2 good outings on turf back in the winter of 2019 at Gulfstream suggests this is his best surface. The 71 Beyer speed figure he earned last September puts him close to the par of 75 and I think he can do it in his first start as a four year old with an excellent jockey in Luis Contreras.
For very similar reasons, I am also interested in the #5 Cheek to Cheek. His fourth place finish behind Royal Laser on this course last August was against a much tougher class and now he shows up where he fits. It is also worth noting that he finished ahead of the second favourite of this race #2 Executive Sight back in that August race. He has run very well fresh; enjoyed going two turns last season, and has been working great for his seasonal debut. I will key #5 and #7 in doubles with the horses from the prior race( 5,7). I suggest playing a small exacta keying the 5,7 with 1,4,5,7,8 in second. Betting both horses to win if the prices stay fair. In my view, fair prices are 7-1 for #7 and 4-1 for #5.
Race 5: Nothing interests me for a wager in this race. #5 Dancers Ghost looks tough coming into his 3yo debut but I do not see any value. Michael DePaulo’s Veloce(#3) might be live given that this barn has been hot early into the season. Do not be scared to pass races that you think do not offer value.
Race 6- Generally, it is difficult to trust any 7,000$ claimer and the runners in this field are no exception. The #2 J M R Bold Vision won here about 12 days ago going 5 furlongs and now shows up for the 6 furlongs. I had her last time at 18-1 and I think that was the day to catch her. She does not seem to do quite as well going 6 furlongs and it appeared as though she desperately needed the wire. Statistically, the #8 Crumlin Time has the best trainer at Woodbine but the horse figures to get bet with Kimura and seems to do her best running going longer distances. She will get a good trip stalking the inside speeds(#1,2) and for that reason I cannot completely dismiss her.
I think that if the #1 Samurai Queen breaks sharply and can get to the front from the rail she will win. She has big speed and is cutting back in distance: an angle I fancy. Furthermore, the pair of 3rd place finishes with 61 Beyer figures going 6furlongs from last season are good enough here. Having a break from racing should do her good after 11 starts last season and trainer does well with layoffs. Her work tab suggests she is ready.
I can also see a scenario where the pace falls apart and a horse might come from out of it. In that scenario I look for the best stalker/closer and I think that horse is #5 Sadie Irene. I am placing a win bet on #1 Samurai Queen at 2-1 or above. Also using #5 Sadie Irene as protection in picks and doubles.
Race 7- #4 Have a Souper Day will be the most singled horse of the day and is the most logical winner on the card. His last 5 races are faster than anything these maidens have ever run and the first time starters are tackling 7 furlongs : a challenging distance for newcomers. I am not bold enough to go against #4. Single and move on.
Race 8- As always, a skull-busting event to close things out. This is a very difficult event with little pace signed on. It is important to note that the outer course going 6.5Furlongs has been advantageous to forwardly placed runners. One horse that fits that profile on the extreme outside is #12 Where’s The Widget. He has the best speed figures and has mostly raced on the front end. He held his own in superior classes but might prefer more distance and a synthetic surface. I landed on #5 Rocket Plan at 15-1 on the morning line because his 2nd place finish at the course and distance seems to fit pretty well with these. He should be up close to the front turning for home. The third runner I will use is #2 Dot’s Vision. He did his best running on the turf last year and the distance hits him right between the eye. His best speed figures put him in the mix. #11 Captain Sidney is one who always appears to run well on this turf course and 20-1 seems to high on him. I will use 2,5,11,12 in a 1$ exacta box and bet 12 w 2,3,5,11 in a 1$ exacta .