Turfway Thursday
Race 1
Back in action for another fun pack Thursday night at Turfway.
2-3-5
2- there’s not much in this low level claimed but somebody has to win. The favourite will be the three but I find it hard to take a horse that is constantly taking money and not able to finish. Incredible cut has shown some nice races when finishing from mid pack and I think he can pick up the pieces in the lane.
3- as I mentioned not willing to take him for the top spot as he doesn’t finish well but will be in the tri
5- rent a horrible race off a layoff when first time for Rick Jordan. Serpa sticks with him and has some shown some good races last summer.
Race 2
5-4-1
5- The bottom drops out for this for-year-old colt, purchased for $50,000 in November 2017 now runs for a bottom price of $5000. His last race at Gulfstream was very poor but he has shown that he can bounce back after a poor effort. He should control the pace here. There won’t be any value especially if he’s under his morning line of 6/5. Make sure to use others in your horizontal wagers as there may be value with a large class drop.
4- this ultra consistent 10-year-old always runs well. I really like the trip he had last time and look for similar tonight.
1- he has run very well at grade odds in his last two Turfway Races. The trainer has figured this horse out and has done well in this class.
Race 3
7-9-4
7- at five years old this mare has seen the world. Shows up at Turfway of 13 days rest and will likely be the speed of the speed. She shows five furlong turf race at Santa Anita where she was attending the pace at the half in 44.1.
9- not crazy about the second time starter from ward. She blew away the field at the beginning of the month and looks to collect another good check here.
4- A bit of a longshot play here but feel there is enough to end up in the top three. If you’re looking for a bomb for the bottom of the tri this could be your play.
Race 4
5-4-3
5- yes you’ll see it right I’m betting the five. Has been away from the races for over a year and a half but has shown some very good works of late. The trainer is one for one at the meat and one for two with new horses. She shows 50% in the money stats with a nice bankroll. If she opens up around 3 to 1 which I think she well I think she is ready to go.
4- her race to back was spectacular at Low odds. In her last race the track was favouring closers and she did not fare as well but she only lost by 2 1/2.
3- should be the favourite here off her last two races where she has run very well for a high percentage outfit. If you look down her past performances she likes to get out very quick and sometimes cannot sustain her friend in position.
Race 5
4-9-1
4- There really to standards in the fifth at Turfway the four get tough showed an amazing race late last year and comes back for half the value. This high percentage trainer knows what he’s doing and is into grab a large portion of the purse. He will be the chalk and I’m not sure what value you will get but he might be a key play in horizontal wagers.
9- this ward charge also drops in half and is shown a win on the track at this distance he will also be over bat. Notice that usually runs well and then throws in a poor race and comes back again to run well. Based on his lines he should have a good race tonight.
1- Second off the layoff for a low percentage jockey and trainer. He may be good to put at the bottom of your tickets to get a price. Looking back on his past performances he does do quite well in this classification.
Race 6
5-6-4
5- A first-time starter out of the Ramsey barn has shown great morning works leading in to his first start. I question the start in a mid-level claimed but I guess maker knows that he would fit in this level. The trainer is having a good meet and shows first time starters debuting in this position with a 16% success rate.
6- I almost took this three-year-old to win it all with the unknown of the first time starter. He drops out of restricted Races where he is shown ultra consistency.
4- leading rider takes over off a short layoff and has done well in this classification. I expect to see more stamina and to be running right with the big boys at the end.
Race 7
2-7-6
2- The trainer has had a great meet clicking at 43% and it tracks one of the top riders for this outing. His race to back was sensational and I’m looking for similar here. His only race on synthetic was poor back in December 2017 but that was against much tougher than he faces today.
7- Franklin hopped back on this horse after a poor performance at a higher level. He must’ve had a choice between the six and the seven and decided to stick with the seven which is a positive flag for wagering.
6- The speed of the group should be guns a blazing from the get go with this very low percentage jockey. It’s hard not to like the last three races after the claim but I’m not willing to rate him higher than third.
Race 8
8-7-6
8- this ultra consistent four-year-old is well bred and has not run a poor race. The question is can she finally win here. This is her weakest field that she is faced and I think it’s graduation time. Might be a good key in your horizontal wagers.
7- The morning line favourite comes in from California I have some nice Races. Should find this group much easier than what she faced on the West Coast. It really looks like a two horse race on paper.
6- The logical third choice had a good race here in December finishing second in her first on synthetic.
Race 9
8-7-6
8- has run very well In four out of her five races. Not bad for a $1300 yearling purchase. There are a lot of horses in this race that will show early speed but not be able to finish at the end. I’m looking for this filly to sit just off the pace and take over as they enter the stretch for the final time.
7- as I mentioned I feel there’s a lot of cheap speed in this race and therefore the past performance lines on the seven show that she can sit back and come running late.
6- A bit of a longshot play here but feel she can be a nice price rounding out the vertical bets.
Good luck to all on this Thursday evening and remember look for value. Giddy up
@shawn55murphy