Turfway Park Friday March 1, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves black coffee, afternoon naps, rescue Pit Bulls, and Twitter hecklers. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Welcome to night racing at Turfway Park… Bomb’s Away.
Hecklers welcome.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – MC 5000 1 Mile 3YO&Up
7-3-1-5
We start tonight’s card with a peculiar group of MC $5000. The #1 Spunky Kitten is sure to take a pounding at the windows because of the fan favorite connections of the Ramseys and Mike Maker. Sure, on paper, this is where he probably belongs at this early stage of his career, but he likely isn’t much as the Ramseys bred him out of Kitten’s Joy into an unraced broodmare Lively Lexi and the “for sale” sign is definitely on him tonight. I’m a total play against at this level of competition. #3 Zapper has been knocking on the door in his last two Turfway efforts; in fact, his last four races were probably good enough to graduate against this field. Luan Machado stays with this Grant Hofmans owned/trained runner, but I think he continues to pick up minor checks. #7 Mamma Loves You looks like the only horse in this field with license to improve enough to outrun the previously mentioned runners. He gets a huge barn upgrade after being claimed by Tommy Drury on 1/4/19. Drury sports enough gaudy Turfway statistics to support Mamma Loves You tonight, but I am a bit concerned with the lack of published workouts since the claim and the drop in class. Is Drury selling early or trying to get a win into him? Drury’s first call Malcolm Franklin rides him tonight, which tells me he is live. Also, Drury doesn’t enter his horses at Turfway unless they have a strong chance of winning because of the purse limitations.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000n2y 1 Mile 4YO&Up F&M
7-9-4-2
This is an incredibly wide-open race full of experienced fillies and mares; in fact, every horse in this race has run at least 29 races in her career. We should have enough data to separate the wheat from the chaff, but this group looks similar on paper. #9 Jewelisa was facing better this past fall and won here at Turfway two starts back on 1/27/18, beating a pretty good mare in Munchies. Her last start was marred by a very peculiar ride and the switch to Malcolm Franklin tonight should definitely help. #4 Spearette has been an improving mare since she returned to Turfway on 12/1/18. She was forced to steady at the quarter pole in her last, but still hung on gamely for second. A cleaner trip has her in the mix. #7 Eyerish Inspired has generally been facing better mares in her last seven races and she should enjoy the class relief tonight. She should also get the trip she wants as the early speed in this race looks to be plentiful and cheap. She lost to the previously mentioned Munchies in her last race after a goofy start. Luan Machado pilots for the third straight race.
Race Three: 7:13 post – MC 7500 1 Mile 3YO Fillies
7-4-8-2
This is a rough race. Just gross. On paper, only one of these runners has run a race better than the expected par victory for this condition, #7 Vortices. She had a goofy start that totally compromised her chances on 2/9/19, so I can forgive that effort. Her previous effort on 1/24/19 was definitely good enough to win, but she ran into a solid horse that night. I give her every chance to win this race, but my play might be price dependent as I can’t swallow her at odds-on, which is where she is headed against this crowd of under-achievers. #4 Viva Per Lei makes some sense as she has been a few lengths back against similar lately. John McKee stays with her as they take the blinkers off, so she has a chance to improve enough for a victory. You’d have to get creative to endorse any of the others.
Race Four: 7:42 post – Allowance 5000s 6 F 4YO&Up
5-3-2-1
Morning scratches killed my value plays as I liked them both against the ML favorite #3 Still Chief. Cipriano Contreras is no fool and he spots his horses well. Still Chief impressively beat four of these runners on 2/2/19, so it’s hard to see much of difference tonight. #2 Birds Gone Wild went off as the favorite in that race, but never really got into it. If he runs back to his previous Turfway form, he is a definite threat tonight, but the post position hurts his chances. The rail draw also hurts #1 Sights and Sounds. His 12/5/18 Turfway race at these same conditions would crush this group. I am going to take the new shooter in this bunch, #5 Salty Rim. He easily handled a $5000n2y Turfway group that included next-out winners Beach Hut and Sharm on 2/2/19. This 8YO has won 18 times and raced at Turfway 23 times in his career, and he appears to be in good form for owner/trainer Glen Thomason.
Race Five: 8:12 post – MC 15000 1 Mile 3YO&Up
7-3-4-8
I can’t get past the two favorites in this race because I just can’t envision a scenario where any of the others have license to improve all that much. #3 Crescent Warrior has finished second in his last three races at this level here at Turfway. It should be noted that he was the favorite in the last two, yet he has never led a race in his career. I can’t play that type of horse on top. #7 Mustang Cat has been a bit of a money burner as well, but at least he has gotten the lead a few times. I fully expect Malcolm Franklin to get the lead tonight and try his best to walk the dog for Michael Ewing and Mustang Racing. He has been 3/4 ITM here at Turfway, mostly against better competition. I suppose #4 Private Galaxy could improve enough to give these two a bit of a scare, but where did Cory Orm go? He’s not riding at Turfway tonight, so that might not be that big of a deal and Pede Prentice is no slouch.
Race Six: 8:42 post – Claiming 15000n3L 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
6-4-7-2
#7 Lucy’s Town is the ML favorite and deservedly so. She handled a similar group as the favorite on 2/9/19 here at Turfway with a perfect trip under Malcolm Franklin. She draws in even better from the outside post tonight and she is 5/6 ITM in Florence, Y’all. All signs point to yes for her. That said, let’s beat her. #4 Blueberry Shine has every right to improve off of her lackluster performance in a 1/26/19 allowance race for Cipriano Contreras. Again, he honestly spots his horses in races where they can win, and he is currently 36% winners at Turfway. That said, last out jockey Luan Machado jumps off for another tonight, so that’s not good. Machado lands on #6 Nymue’s Treasure. She is throwing the blinkers back on tonight which should allow her to be a little more forwardly placed with less to do down the lane.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – Claiming 18500n2L 1 Mile 3YO&Up
6-8-1-3
Scratches killed my longshot play #Silver GTO. Watch for this Cipriano Contreras runner next out. We are left with a pretty evenly matched group of 3YOs, but a short field of six. #1 Lucky Bode would need to improve a little bit, but he should enjoy getting away from proven Turfway runner Welles Crowther. He is heading in the right direction for Mike Maker and gets Rodney Prescott back aboard tonight. He wouldn’t surprise me. I also think #8 Ceduna is improving and getting away from the previously mentioned Welles Crowther. He had every chance to get his picture taken last out but flattened out down the lane. With just a touch more fitness and guts, he’s worth a look. I feel like Wesley Ward pulled a fast one on us tonight. He scratched out probable favorite Stage Left to allow #6 Thomas Shelby a free go of it. This Triple Crown nominated son of Curlin sold for $525K a year ago and hasn’t gotten it going just yet. He has four above-average Turfway workouts since his last track appearance and Luan Machado jumps in the irons. He’ll need to improve a touch, but all signs look like he has done just that.
Race Eight: 9:42 post – Claiming 5000n1x 6 F 4YO&Up F&M
7-5-1-2
It’s not glamorous, but I don’t think we can beat the odds-on ML favorite #7 Dream Park. If she was facing better, I would try to punch some holes in her form, but she is the only runner with a win in their last ten running lines as this is a weak group. She’s a single for me. #5 Alittlebourbon could keep improving, but she would need to jump up a lot and Virginia Tormey doesn’t scare anyone in the irons. #1 Crisis Averted could also surprise us, but the rail draw is a killer.