Turfway Park Saturday December 7, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves Baby Yoda, baby talk, baby corn, friends’ baby pictures. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various horse tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – MC 5000 6 F 3YO&Up
2-10-5-7
The even money ML favorite #10 Unveiling hasn’t done much running in his eight race 3YO career but he has done it against much better competition. That said, this Mike Maker trained gelding is a son of Arch, who always seemed to relish this track. He could certainly win and is likely the best horse in this race, but I am going to play against him tonight. #5 U.S. Millennium is a first-time starter out of the James Chapman barn. Chapman only wins at 8% with his FTS, but this one won’t need to run much to beat this group. It should be noted that he is also a son of Arch and should take a liking to the Turfway Park strip. #2 Champagne Chills was eased in his last race on 11/24/19 against much tougher competition at Aqueduct. He was moving up the claiming ladder before his last race, but it looks like the “for sale” sign is up tonight. He airs this group or finishes last; take your pick.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000b 5 1/2 F Mile 3YO&Up
4-2-10-8
#4 Warrior’s Lullaby looks to be a complete standout on the PPs for the Ruis Racing barn. He has been facing much better recently so the huge drop in class is of concern. He is probably much the best, but I am interested in taking a shot with #2 News Box. Though he has yet to try the all-weather footing in his career, this David Rider owned and trained gelding is headed in the right direction and his pedigree suggests that he will like the poly-track. If we can get at least 4/1 on him, he’s the play. Do not leave him off your horizontals.
Race Three: 7:13 post – MC 30000 1 Mile 2YO
8-1-4-9
Trainer Mike Maker doesn’t win very often with his FTS but #1 Deerslayer is not without a chance against this group. His workout pattern suggests that he may need a start, but his string of competent workouts hints that he could be good enough tonight. He also attracts the services of Martin Garcia in the bike, so he is probably live. The Anthony Stephen owned and trained #8 Americain Joey is dropping a couple of rungs down the claiming ladder, but his first four starts would beat this group. He regressed in his last start on 11/10/19 at Churchill Downs, but his early turf results indicate that this grandson of Dynaformer will like Turfway Park. #4 Money for Mischief hasn’t been much for trainer Dale Romans, but this class drop should be just what this $200K purchase needs to get his picture taken.
Race Four: 7:42 post – Claiming 5000 5 F 3YO&Up
1-3-8-6
This might be the most evenly matched race on tonight’s Turfway Park card. If you are playing horizontals, you might need to go as deep as six horses to feel comfortable but a couple of these should provide some value. #1 Proven Warrior is a newly trained Kim Hammond 9YO who has been incredibly popular at the claiming box as evidenced by the fact that this is Hammond’s fourth ownership in the last ten running lines. In addition, he is 8/13 ITM here at Turfway Park and his 11/22/19 Turfway workout shows he is still fit. #8 Overcame has been very good for the Genaro Garcia barn since being claimed on 8/2/19 at Indiana Grand. This 5YO deserves a long look under bug-boy Joseph Ramos but there are some concerns with his affinity for the all-weather track as he has only raced once on the turf and never on the poly-track. Speaking of bug-boys, if you are willing to draw a line through the 10/19/19 effort of #3 Fridaynitestar, he could take this field wire-to-wire for new owner/trainer Waylon Cundiff. This gelding has been dominating better fields at Canterbury, but he hasn’t tried the poly-track in his career.
Race Five: 8:12 post – Claiming 12500 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
4-3-10-7
#3 Majestic Bold will surely try to wire this field as the lone speed tonight. Her 11/22/19 Turfway Park workout suggests that she will continue to like the all-weather surface, but she appears to be a notch below others in this field. #4 No Interest would love for Majestic Bold to soften up the pace for her closing kick as she has been holding her own at this level on the Presque Isle Downs poly-track for quite some time. No Interest is moving back up the claiming ladder off of her last start, but it looks like she has been brought to Florence Y’all for this meet and a few paychecks.
Race Six: 8:42 post – Claiming 15000n2L 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
6-2-8-3
#8 Double Oaked has been made the 7/2 ML favorite for this $15K claiming race but I really want nothing to do with her. It can be argued that her best race isn’t even good enough to beat this field, so I am looking elsewhere. #2 Pass It On has been facing much better until her recent 11/17/18 claim away from the Thomas Vance barn, but the uncertainty of her poly-track form negates her value against this field of evenly matched runners. She could win, but not on my ticket. #6 Green Garnet is in her second start for owner/trainer Doug Danner tonight. This recently claimed filly showed some improvement over the Norm McKnight barn in her first start and I expect the wily Danner to have this one ready to run under her regular jockey Orlando Mojica. She need only improve a couple lengths since her last start to handle this field, which is likely.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – OC 40000n2x 6 1/2 F 3YO&Up
1-11-6-12
Tonight’s feature race is an OC $40K for 3YO&Up sprinting on the Turfway Park all-weather strip. This evenly matched race features several contenders going in opposite directions of their career. #1 Knights Key fired a complete dud in his last race on 9/28/19 at Laurel Park. If he can rebound to his previous all-weather form, as his 11/30/19 Turfway Park workout suggests he will, he will be incredibly dangerous against this group tonight. I am willing to draw a line through his last effort and forgive him for the dud he fired at Laurel and play him on top tonight. #11 K Choice was claimed away from the Ben Colebrook barn in his last start on 11/22/19, but it’s hard for me to back this horse coming off of its career best performance and a barn change, even though he lands with trainer Mike Maker and jockey Marin Garcia. He could win tonight, but there are far too many moving parts for me to fully endorse this runner. Do you remember when #6 Gettysburg used to be a highly regarded colt on the Derby trail? I do too, but his best poly-track performances place him a notch below several others here tonight, but I don’t’ know that I would totally disregard his chances even though he is moving up the claiming ladder. Jockey Joe Rocco, Jr. is really proficient with these types of runners and his 11/6/19 Hawthorne workout is surprisingly good for this level of competition.
Race Eight: 9:42 post – Claiming 5000n3L 1 Mile 3YO&Up
5-8-7-1#8 Hooray for Harvey was made the 2/1 ML favorite against this $5000 Claiming field of 3YO&Up based primarily off the class drop tonight. He finished a mere three lengths behind Aquadini and Zypto, two reasonably good horses at this level, in his 11/23/19 Churchill Downs tussle in his first effort for the Kenneth Miller owned/trained barn. If he is on the improve rather than relishing the sloppy footing, he is a run-away winner tonight. Against my better judgment, I am going to play against Harvey with #5 Georgie Hyphen. First, I need to forgive his last race on 11/7/19 at Churchill Downs where he clearly didn’t like the sloppy footing. Second, I need to pretend that he can improve off his stay in the Peter Miller barn for the better part of the last year. Lastly, I need to believe that his turf pedigree will carry him along tonight here at Turfway Park. His 11/29/19 workout tells me that he will hate Turfway, but he broke his maiden in Ireland on the Dundalk all-weather surface, which could be an indication that he will love the poly-track here in Florence. It’s an intuition play, but it should be a profitable one. Ignore the trainer stats and play the horse, especially since we get the services of a quite capable bug-boy in Joe Ramos.