Turfway Park Racing Analysis — Wednesday, December 12, 2018, by Hunter Ulwelling

Race 1- 1st #4 Northern Connect won three back at Churchill at this level, has never raced at Turfway, and jockey Prescott is at 25%.  Back last year she kind of started running well again, but now is back down to this level.

2nd #7 Miss Discreet doesn’t seem to be into running anymore and once she was dropped down to $4,000 she won easily at Mountaineer.  I don’t understand how she’s 3/1 win her trainer is winless and jockey is at 5%, but there isn’t much talent in this field.

3rd #3 Alta Rita has one win out of eight starts on the Turfway synthetic, and recently won two three back.  Coming from Belterra doesn’t say much about this mare.

Race 2- 1st It’s so hard to not take #2 Soulmate on top as he is a Ramsey homebred trained by Wesley Ward who is enjoying 36% right now, it’s his first career start and he’s worked two bullets.

2nd #7 Let It Go Indigo is an Indiana-bred who was thrown to the wolves in a stakes race in his second race, which didn’t work well for him, but now he’s back to a better spot.

3rd The Ramsey’s also bred #3 Fake Solution who’s been in tougher company in his three starts and was recently tagged for $15,000 at Churchill.

Race 3- 1st #2 Impassable Canyon goes from $10,000 to $5,000 and is coming off of a third place finish at Indiana Grand, and I am taking him because of his synthetic track record, five wins out of twenty-two starts, the rest of the field doesn’t have that.

2nd #10 Gateway Arch has R. Mojica in the irons who’s at 22% and a trainer at 25%.  He also comes off of a third place finish, but at Churchill, same level as rival Impassable Cannon.  He is new to Turfway Park.

3rd #4 Malibu Tide may seem easy to overlook, but he has nice third place finishes on the synthetic, has a hot jockey, and looks to rebound off of a disappointing effort last out.

Race 4- 1st #2 J Dub is winless at Turfway but has three second places.  Let’s change that and make him a winner at Turfway, I think this is his race.  He broke his maiden in the spring and needed to go against easier class. He’s coming from Belterra running Beyer numbers good enough to win.

2nd #4 North Elkhorn has ran second four times, so he can do it again.  Interesting note, blinkers come off here. I don’t think he has much of an interest in racing, but I’d like to see him routed again.  His parents and siblings were not/are not much into sprinting either.

3rd #5 The Gomper is one I feel a lot of people will take because they see Mike Maker is training him, and this horse hasn’t won in almost THREE years, don’t see why anyone would take him, red flags all over with this horses layoffs and running pattern, but I will take him because of the class drop.

Race 5- 1st #9 Lucy’s Town is just the best of this bunch by finishing on the board three out of four starts, last out just sort of gave up but her jockey is riding well right now and here’s to hoping she can pull off a win.

2nd #1A Yankee Rose lost by a length and a half last out, and it was her best race this far.  She likes to go to the front, and routing clearly isn’t her gig, and the connections saw improvement last out by shortening her up.

3rd #1 Talk Game’s comments from last out say “no threat” and that is most definitely correct to say.  Maybe adding the blinkers will help? We will see.

Race 6- 1st I really love trying to beat the chalk, but you can’t go against #3 Data Star as she comes off of a terrible race (very difficult also), now comes to an easier track, surface change, Jon Court remains aboard.

2nd #5 Molly’s Game comes off of a couple of lackluster fourth place finishes at Keeneland and has since had a little freshening.  The connections are also successful right now.

3rd #Talaalah is a Candy Ride filly still trying to break her maiden- typically Candy Ride’s find a lot of success racing but she’s been the exception.  Second place is her most recent effort in Chicago, blinkers on.

Race 7- 1st #3 Conquest Tizfire is coming out of a stakes race at Saratoga, and a layoff.  She has two starts on the synthetic, a first and second. She has eleven starts, one win, five seconds, and two thirds.  This is a better spot for her.

2nd #7 Straightouttapopcorn comes from a tough allowance race at Keeneland and has also had a bit of a freshening.  She’s also won on the synthetic which is a help here.

3rd #8 Mischevious Lass is 12/1 morning line and I’m not quite sure why, as she just finished second by a nose at Churchill last out for $30,000.  The only doubts I have are the connections, but she has thirteen starts, a win, four seconds, and three thirds. Never tried the synthetic though.

Race 8- 1st #7 Mun Up has Malcolm Franklin aboard, he’s done well this far at Turfway, and this Munnings gelding comes off of a second place finish over in West Virginia.

2nd #6 Sanderstead won at Belterra and then didn’t run the rest of the summer, so he’s fresh.  His trainer is winless this meet with thirteen starts which is a little concerning but I will set that aside.

3rd #3 Rontos Society is kind of one of those older horses who sticks around and picks up the pieces.  He’s been on the board seven out of thirteen starts this year and comes back to a track he likes.

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