Turfway Park Racing Analysis — Thursday, March 21, 2019, by Shawn Murphy

We’re ready for another Thursday night at Turfway Park. Not a bad card tonight and hopefully a very profitable one. Remember the name of the game is value.

Race 1

6-4-5


6- The first race kicks off with the morning line favourite who is third off the layoff. This five-year-old loves the track and loves the distance. Start the night off with a little chalk.

4- High percentage burn sends out this five-year-old and has done quite well at Turfway and at this distance.

5- you might get a bit of a price on this horse but lately it’s been ultra consistent. A good pack to fill the third spot as there is not much else in the race.

Race 2

3-2-7


3- I can’t say I’ve ever seen a trainer with a 52% win rating but this guy must be the real deal. Has never been on the poly and is never raced to Turfway but the trainers numbers speak for themselves. Remember statistics never lie and this game is all about angles

2- very logical second choice as she is dropping down considerably and comes from quality connections. It really looks like a two horse race on paper.

7- this four-year-old opened up last time against a week field at the distance. This could be a very chalky tri, and you might want to include some price horses to round out the triple including the eight and the six.

Race 3

8-3-1


8- i’m trying to find some higher-priced winners but it’s difficult. This guys been on a roll since early December and continues to put in Nice Races and there’s no reason to think she won’t tonight. There’s other quality in this field but I think this post position is advantageous.

3- had a tough race last out against much of these on the track that favoured closers. This five-year-old should be able to control the pace this evening with quality connections.

1- I love the lesser Races for this eight-year-old Mare. The race on February 9 catches Mayeye as she was shuffled back and came on with a flurry to just miss. She’s been favoured in the last five races and will again take lots of money. Box my top three in there should be a profit in the exactor.

Race 4

7-6-4


7- not much to say here as I’m going with three first time starters. The only reason I’m doing this is because the horses it I’ve already run look horrible. The one will take some money but he’s been off since June with the trainer that does not have strong numbers after long Layoffs.

6- Who knows?

4- ditto to the six?

Race 5

6-8-4


6- my top pick was bumped early in the race last time out and did not recover from the incident. If you scratch out that race there’s nothing but quality in her races at Turfway at this distance. I’m looking for a rebound effort and feel That 3 to 1 would be very good value.

8- yes we have picks that are not going to be the favorites. This four-year-old has put it all together in her last three races, all of them at this track at this distance with this rider. You will get odds on this horse so don’t be afraid to put it in the top three of your vertical bets.

4- another that just broke her maiden at this distance at this track with this rider. This is a step up in class and her first race against winners but should add some value in the exactas and tris.

Race 6

3-1-4


3- Love the workouts leading up to this race for a trainer that hits with 21% first off claim. Not crazy about the record at the distance but feel he should be able to come rolling down the lane and win it all.

1- you’re going to get a bit of a price on this six-year-old but I can see many angles that look promising. One for one of the distance and two out of three on the poly. The recent workout on March 1 was very impressive.

4- this guy comes off a bit of a layoff and has not run since the end of January and shows ultra consistency throughout his PP‘s. Likes the distance likes the track.

Race 7

6-7-8


6- Not crazy about this race, but somebody has to win. I took this for-year-old colt mainly because of his connections. Show some good work times leading into this race and showed some strong races at Turfway. One thing that I’m not impressed with is the fact that he was a $2000 purchase as a yearling obviously his confirmation is not the strongest.

7- first two races very nice detailed off quickly in the latter part of 2018. Some average works coming into this race for a fairly strong connections.

8- same trainer as my second choice a combination that I favour and comes off a bit of a layoff with a strong race and last and should follow up well here tonight.

P.s this is a very even race on paper in the yard should show three or four here within 4 to 1 or lower.

Race 8

9-5-6-7


The nine likes to come second and May with very well do the same tonight but you have to pick somebody. I’ve picked four in here as I feel one of them may show up at a price and win it all. $5000 claimers are a crapshoot. You never know what might just wake up.

I hope you like the insight and may your night be profitable. Giddyup!

@shawn55murphy

Close Menu