Saturday January 5th at Turfway Park
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Race 1: Clm 5000b, Five and a half furlongs on the Polytrack, For Four Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 6:15 PM EDT.
Selections: 1-6-4
(1) Princetonian: Ran second against similar in most recent start here so should be able to contend once again. Does not appear to be a lot of early speed signed on for this race and slight cutback in distance is a bit of a question, so will need to run closer to the pace than normal in order to have a chance at winning. Santangelo off to hot start so far at Turfway meet (24% win rate) and does well running in claiming races (23% win rate); also encouraging to see McKee (18% win rate in sprint races over the past year) remain onboard. Six year old gelding is class of field and should prove it tonight.
(6) Battle N Away: Hughes ships in this six year old gelding from Hawthorne after failing to show much if anything when sprinting on the dirt there last month. However, a return to racing over an all weather surface could be just the change he needs to get back into the winner’s circle as he boasts a record of 11-4-2-2 when racing over synthetic surfaces. He has decent tactical speed as evidenced by his efforts sprinting over the Polytrack at Arlington last summer and a return to that form makes him a contender tonight.
(4) Boom Box: In most recent effort here at this distance, put together a nice closing effort and managed to finish third beaten by just half a length. 74 Bris Speed Rating (BSR) earned in that performance ranks as second fastest last out speed figure amongst the entire field and a similar effort tonight puts him solidly into contention for hitting the board. Great sign to see Prescott keep the mount as not only has he been off to an excellent start at Turfway (23% win rate) but also his 17% win rate in sprint races over the course of the past year makes him one of the better jockeys in the field.
Race 2: Clm 5000b, One mile on the Polytrack, For Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 6:44 PM EDT.
Selections: 7-2-5
(7) Brittany’s Beauty: In order for this daughter of Tale of Ekati to have a chance at winning tonight, she must avoid getting into a speed duel on the front end of this race with the other early speed type horses drawn to her inside as that was her downfall in her most recent start here at this distance. Although Short has yet to win a race at Turfway, this filly could secure him his first victory tonight especially if Machado can get her to rate behind the initial leaders. Machado has done well riding in route races over the past year (22% win rate) and this filly’s best speed figures at tonight’s distance make her a legitimate contender.
(2) Shyla: Daughter of Sangaree produced a quality win when last seen sprinting here over six furlongs in her first attempt over the Turfway Polytrack. Over the course of her career, she has developed a pattern of running well when stretching out from six furlong sprints to mile or longer route races; look for that trend to continue this evening. Her running style should have her positioned just off of the pace and her late closing speed should allow her to be flying down the stretch. Garcia currently boasts a 24% win rate over the past three years with repeat claim runners.
(5) Martha’s Mafia: Tonight marks this filly’s career debut over the Polytrack. The slight drop in class this evening could potentially help her chances of hitting the board. Last summer she showed excellent early speed when routing at Belterra Park (in fact she took several fields gate to wire) and if she can handle the switch in surfaces, she could be dangerous if allowed to get loose on the lead. While Reed does boast a 20% win rate with runners entered for a tag and McKee has been firing at a 20% rate in route races over the past year, neither the sire, damsire, or grandsire of Martha’s Mafia have been known to produce successful all weather surface runners so knowing whether or not this filly will take to the Polytrack is murky at best.
Race 3: Clm 5000n3L, One mile on the Polytrack, For Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 7:13 PM EDT.
Selections: 7
(7) Sour Peach: With the scratch of the only other early speed in this race, this mare, a daughter of Hold Me Back, projects to be the lone speed in this race which should make her especially dangerous. She has shown excellent early speed in the past when routing over this track (in fact she took several fields gate to wire) and the 74 BSR she posted in her most recent effort at this distance and class level ranks as the highest last out speed figure amongst the entire field. Sour Peach has hit the board in all but one of her five starts over the Polytrack and should improve in her second start following the layoff as Pate has been firing at a 33% rate with runners returning to racing under those conditions. While De Leon has been off to a slow start thus far, he has performed admirably when riding Sour Peach. Look for this mare to take this race in gate to wire fashion tonight.
Race 4: Clm 5000n2y, One mile on the Polytrack, For Fillies and Mares Four Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 7:42 PM EDT.
Selections: 7-6-5
(7) Stina: Won last race here at this class level and distance in impressive fashion, a repeat of that effort should be good enough to win again. 74 BSR earned in for that performance ranks as the highest last out speed figure and her tactical speed should keep her in contention tracking the leaders throughout the initial stages of this race. Contreras boasts not only a 26% win rate with runners that won their last race but also a 28% win rate with claim repeaters. Good to see Prescott remain onboard as he has been on fire during the current Turfway meet boasting a 23% win rate from 102 mounts.
(6) Native Indy: Drop in class tonight should help this mare as she was able to prevail by just a nose against tougher in her last out start over this track and at this distance. Her running style is that of a pace stalker which should allow her to track the initial leaders before trying to make a move late as the field turns for home. From a class standpoint this mare is among the classier runners in this field and she should be able to use that to her advantage tonight. Over the past three years, Danner has been winning at a 25% rate with runners that won their last race while over the same time period he boasts a ridiculous 31% win rate with claim repeaters.
(5) Too Cool: In two most recent efforts here at Turfway when competing against tougher rivals, this daughter of Shakespeare has prevailed by a neck and finished third by a head, so needless to say expect another close effort by her once again tonight. Too Cool does drop in class this evening and with a decent amount of early speed signed on, she should have plenty of pace to run after with her close from the clouds running style. Not entirely sure that this mare can win tonight but she should be able to hit the board at the very least.
Race 5: MC 15000, Six furlongs on the Polytrack, For Maidens, Fillies Three Years Old. Post Time: 8:12 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-4-10
(5) Lady Leah: Daughter of Eskendereya just missed in her most recent start here at this distance when taking on $30K maiden claiming foes. Thus the drop in class tonight should help her chances. However, 77 BSR that she posted in that effort ranks as the highest last out speed figure amongst the entire field and a repeat performance (especially given her tendency to be forwardly placed) makes her a serious threat in this race. Maker has been firing at a 25% rate with runners dropping down two or more class levels and has been winning these maiden claiming races at a 24% rate over the past three years. Very encouraging as well to see Prescott remain onboard tonight.
(4) Can D Appeal: First time starter for West, this filly a daughter of Can the Man should take to the Polytrack with ease as her grandsire, Into Mischief, is one of the top ten all weather surface sires in the country. Additionally, her dam has produced five winners from six starters. Her most recent works over the Polytrack have been nothing spectacular but there are still solid efforts. Over the past three years, West has been winning with first time starters at a 16% rate while also posting a 19% win rate with runners debuting in maiden claiming races.
(10) Mother Ocean: Not quite sure what to expect from this daughter of Midshipman as she makes her Polytrack debut tonight. In her only prior start, she finished second when sprinting six furlongs on the dirt against $10K maiden claimers at Mahoning Valley, so this will be a step up in class for her. However, Connelly has done well not only with runners making their second career start (23% win rate) but also with runners moving up one class level (25% win rate).
Race 6: MC 5000, Six furlongs on the Polytrack, For Maidens, Fillies and Mares Four Years Old. Post Time: 8:42 PM EDT.
Selections: 3-2
(3) Queen Jeanne: This daughter of Mizzen Mast has hit the board in both of her recent starts here at Turfway, a third place effort when sprinting five and a half furlongs and then a second place effort when routing a mile, both against tonight’s level of competition. This filly has good tactical speed so look for her to be forwardly placed, rating just behind the initial pacesetters. Santangelo has done remarkably well in getting his runners into the winner’s circle not only when making the transition from a route to a sprint (21% win rate) but also when following the sprint-route-sprint pattern (40% win rate). Queen Jeanne gets a major upgrade in the rider department tonight as Machado has signed on to ride (18% win rate with E/P types) and that should bode well for her chances of finally getting a win here at Turfway.
(2) E Z Bonus: This filly, trained by Bruce Waltermire, just missed scoring a massive upset in her most recent start here at Turfway over five and a half furlongs as she was caught down the stretch and beaten by just a neck at odds of 64.60-1. A repeat of that performance, even though she is stretching out an additional half furlong, makes her exceptionally dangerous tonight. Over the past three years, Waltermire has been firing at a 33% rate in maiden claiming races all the while boasting an impressive $7.80 R.O.I.
Race 7: Alw 185000n2L, Six furlongs on the Polytrack, For Four Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 9:12 PM EDT.
Selections: 3-4-7
(3) Keros: Obviously there were issues with this son of First Samurai as he did not make his career debut until February of 2018, when he was already five years old. However, in both of his efforts here at Turfway, he has run quite well including his most recent start when he quite simply blew away a $19K Maiden field. This gelding has excellent tactical speed and in a field filled with runners that have very good early speed that could work to his advantage as he will likely try to stalk the initial pacesetters before striking late. The 90 BSR that he earned in his most recent effort in fact ranks as the highest last out speed figure amongst the entire field. Over the past three years, Drury has done remarkably well not only with runners competing in allowance races (31% win rate from 159 starts) but also with runners making their second start following a layoff (37% win rate from 62 starts). Very, very encouraging to see Franklin remain onboard tonight (15% win rate in sprint races over the past year).
(4) Welles Crowther: Initially looked to have won by a nose when routing a mile and a sixteenth in career debut here at Turfway for trainer Laura Wohlers, but then was disqualified to second for drifting out down the stretch. However, this colt did take the field in that race in gate to wire fashion and showed excellent speed throughout the entirety of the race, earning an 86 BSR for his efforts. The cutback in distance tonight to a six furlong sprint should not bother him especially if he can give a repeat effort of that most recent performance. Although Wohlers is just starting out as a trainer, thus far five of her first six starters at Turfway have hit the board, good enough for an 83% in the money rate. Corey Orm (19% win rate at the Turfway meet) gets the call to ride tonight.
(7) Point to Dunkirk: This gelding was impressive in his most recent start here at Turfway beating a field of $30K maiden claimers by daylight when sprinting over six furlongs. However, tonight marks a major step up in class for this son of Dunkirk, though if he can break well from the get go and withstand the heavy pressure he will likely face from the other early speed type runners in this field, then he could be in contention late in this race. While he does lose his rider from his most recent start to the top selection here, Mojica (19% win rate currently at Turfway) is a more than capable replacement.
Race 8: Clm 5000n2L, One mile on the Polytrack, For Four Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 9:44 PM EDT.
Selections: NO OPINION PROVIDED