Saturday December 1st at Turfway Park
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Race 1: Clm 5000n2L, Six furlongs on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 6:10 PM EDT.
Selections: 4-2-8
(4) Super Bound: Mike Maker trainee broke his maiden in impressive fashion at this distance at the beginning of last month at Indiana Grand. Son of Super Saver has very good early speed, looks to be the early leader in this race, posted a blistering work over the synthetic surface here at Turfway on November 24th. Maker has been brilliant in getting runners to fire when transitioning from dirt to all weather tracks (31% win rate over past three years).
(2) Twinkling Knight: Curious to see what the Darrin Miller runner can do after a layoff of over a year. Miller has posted positive R.O.I.s both when returning runners to racing after more than 90 days off (23% win rate) and with runners making their first start for him (33% win rate). Finally, last two works over the Churchill training track were fairly sharp and could indicate that this one is ready to fire despite long layoff.
(8) Aggro Crag: Had been racing competitively when sprinting earlier this year and cutback in distance, drop in class, and switch of surfaces could only help right? Over course of career has hit the board in four of six tries at the distance. Use underneath only here.
Race 2: Clm 5000b, Five and a half furlongs on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 6:41 PM EDT.
Selections: 7-2-3
(7) Tiz Funny: This son of Tiznow appears to be the one to beat in the field as he certainly possesses some of the best early speed figures amongst the entire field; look for him to break sharply and be on the lead early on. Slight drop in class and minor cutback in distance could only help his chances today at besting these rivals. Barkley boasts a 21% win rate not only when transitioning runners from dirt to all weather but also on all weather surfaces overall.
(2) Durrett Lane: This son of Majestic Warrior ships in after primarily racing at Delaware Park earlier this year. He possesses fairly good early speed and has finished in the exacta in six of his twelve tries at the distance. Compton has been winning at a 23% rate with runners that switch from dirt to all weather racing surfaces.
(3) When Th Cats Away: Consider this son of Bluegrass Cat for two reasons. First, he loves racing at Turfway as he has finished in the exacta in five of his six starts at the track. Second, although he has not raced since July 21st, Grubbs has been hitting at a 20% rate (50% in the money) with runners making their first start after a layoff of more than 90 days.
Race 3: MC 5000, Six furlongs on the Polytrack, For Maidens, Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 7:11 PM EDT.
Selections: 7-1-6
(7) National Pride: Not entirely sure why this one is being endorsed on top but am intrigued to see what happens as Maker is dropping this one down two class levels and will be faces his weakest level of competition to date (25% win rate when making that kind of class drop). Additionally, Maker boasts a 31% win rate when switching runners from dirt to all weather surfaces. Jockey Prescott has been winning at 16% rate when sprinting this year.
(1) Winter Rain: When last seen on turf back in May, was racing competitively versus tougher rivals. Miller owns ridiculous 60% win rate with runners transitioning from turf to all weather and holds a 23% win rate with runners making their first start after a layoff of greater than 90 days. Although primary running style is that of a closer, may be a bit more forwardly placed in this race especially when trying the Polytrack for the first time.
(6) Stefan O’Eishen: This son of Northern Afleet has finished in the trifecta in all three of his attempts at today’s distance and does have some experience racing over the Turfway Polytrack. Additionally, he drops in class today and his trainer has been firing at a 23% rate with runners entered into sprint races over the past three years.
Race 4: Clm 15000n2L, One mile on the Polytrack, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 7:41 PM EDT.
Selections: 3-4-7
(3) B Deb’s Fortune: Quite possibly the only true early speed in this race, look for this daughter of Awesome Patriot to try and take this field in gate to wire fashion similar to what she what she did two starts back against similar foes at Keeneland. She should appreciate the slight cutback in distance today and receives the services of Victor Lebron (20% win rate when routing this year).
(4) Fashion Envy: Interested to see if this daughter of Orb can get back on track after such a promising beginning to her three year old campaign. May be at a slight disadvantage in this field with her closing running style but trainer Barkley boasts a 29% win rate with a positive $6.51 R.O.I. with runners going from sprint to route races. Additionally, Mojica Jr. has been off to a fairly hot start so far at Turfway (20% win rate and 70% in the money finishes).
(7) Greedy American: Consider this one only for likely excellent price she will offer as an underneath play in this race. Has finished in the trifecta in three of five lifetime starts at today’s distance and did finish third versus similar foes on dirt in her last start.
Race 5: Clm 5000, Five furlongs on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 8:11 PM EDT.
Selections: 6-1-7
(6) Snow Leopard: Be very wary of this short-priced ML favorite as this son of Red Giant drops to his lowest level of racing this year which is never a good sign. Yet, he has hit the board in 11 of his 13 tries at today’s distance and has finished in the trifecta in three of his five starts at Turfway. He possesses very good early speed, will likely be on or near the lead from the get go, and from a class standpoint is the best in the field. Additionally, Hammond has been winning at a 20% rate in claiming races over the past three years.
(1) Insurgent: This son of Bernardini draws a favorable post position along the rail, has fairly good early speed and has won two of his three starts at Turfway thus far. If he can repeat the performance he gave at this distance on turf at Belterra Park back in August then he has an excellent chance of hitting the board today. Anderson has been firing at a 21% rate with runners racing on all weather surfaces over the past three years.
(7) Walking Stick: This son of Horse Greeley drops in class today and returns to his preferred distance of five furlongs, where he has hit the board in six of eight starts. His most recent work over four furlongs was incredibly sharp and he should be coming into this race in good form. Additionally his trainer has done fairly well (23% win rate) when transitioning runners from dirt to all weather surfaces.
Race 6: Mdn 18.5k, One Mile on the Polytrack, For Maidens, Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 8:41 PM EDT.
Selections: 2-1
(2) Cardiac Kitten: Really hoping Wesley Ward does not decide to scratch this son of Kitten’s Joy as he has so often done with his runners over the past several weeks often for no apparent reason. Cardiac Kitten’s dam has produced five winners, including three stakes winners, from five starters thus far. Additionally, this colt has been working out quite well as of late, posting some sharp recent works. Ward has been firing at a 32% rate with runners racing on all weather surfaces over the past three years and over the past 14 days he has posted a 8-4-1-2 record. Cardiac Kitten may offer some value for use as an on top play.
(1) Sassy King: This son of Broken Vow will certainly need to improve off of his last two efforts in order to be competitive today but the drop in class and slight cutback in distance should certainly help his chances. There’s almost no speed entered into this field so his closing running style could be at a bit of a disadvantage here, although look for him to get a ground saving trip along the rail today and for him to be charging late with his decent closing kick. Sims has been winning at a 24% rate when transitioning runners from maiden claiming to maiden races over the past three years.
Race 7: OC 40000n2x, Six and a half furlongs on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 9:11 PM EDT.
Selections: 1A-5-3
(1A) Land Battle: Going for a bit of a price play on top here in this race as it is quite difficult to trust of number of the runners in this field. This son of Istan won his only try at today’s distance, has shown good early speed in the past, and figures to be forwardly placed in this race. Although he does step up in class today, Hammond has been firing at a 24% rate with runners making their first start for her after being claimed. No idea as to which jockey will be riding though as Machado was initially listed as the rider for both of Hammond’s entries.
(5) Mount Calvary: It’s really hard to ignore this son of Artie Schiller’s record of 5-2-2-1 at Turfway and the fact that he has finished in the exacta in both of his starts at today’s distance certainly helps. Look for this gelding to be racing mid-pack early on before trying to close late as the field turns for home. Young currently holds a ridiculous 60% win rate with runners that were the betting favorite in their last race and that is coupled by an outstanding $10.96 R.O.I.
(3) Horse Sense: This colt possesses decent early speed and should be forwardly placed in the initial stages of the race. His most recent work over a muddy four furlongs was tack sharp and could possibly indicate that he is in good form coming into this race. Ewing has posted a 19% win rate along with a positive R.O.I. over the past three years in allowance races and it is encouraging to see Lebron (18% win rate in sprint races this year) get the call to ride once again.
Race 8: Clm 5000n3L, One mile on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 9:41 PM EDT.
Selections: NO SELECTIONS PROVIDED