Turfway Park Friday January 4, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves forgiveness, clean slates, fresh starts, and persistence. He hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge.
Let’s go night racing at Turfway Park.
Happy New Year, everyone!
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – MC 7500 1 Mile 3YO Fillies
4-7-6-2
We start the card with a small field of new 3YO fillies racing for a tag. Most of the field has been entered for a tag before tonight and it feels like the connections of all of these are trying to find the correct level for their fillies. #6 Ragazza Veloce hasn’t been this low on the ladder as she is dropping a couple classes tonight. She fits here, but her connections haven’t gone to the Lasix yet, so I still see her underneath. #7 Lidar has improved since she made her all-weather debut back on 12/5/18 here at Turfway. I expect her to be the sharpest she has been in her third start of her current form cycle and John McKee hasn’t jumped off of her yet. It’s tough to ignore #4 Lake Girl tonight. She almost wired the field at this level on 12/20/18 here at Turfway and her last two efforts have been good enough to win. She’s the most proven commodity in this race.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000n2y 5 ½ F 4YO&Up F&M
8-4-1-6
#1 Allaire is certainly good enough to get her picture taken tonight, but I am not pumped about her inside draw in her first start back from a three month freshening. It’s also really thought to tell how she will run on the all-weather surface since she hasn’t seen it in years. She has enough questions in her form to play against tonight. #4 Oldfashioned Angel looks to be improving in her third start of this form cycle, but I am a bit concerned that she has yet to win on all-weather in nine career starts. #8 Love the Power, however, seems to like the Turfway surface just fine as she is 5/8 ITM for her career in Florence, Y’all. She flashed a little speed in her return to the track on 12/14/18 going a half a furlong longer. She should be the speed of the speed in this race and get clear of the others. The question is whether or not she will hold on. I think she will tonight.
Race Three: 7:13 post – Claiming 15000n2L 6 F 4YO&Up
7-1-8-2
#1 Ludlum and #8 Lil Habanero are likely to get caught up in a bit of a duel on the front end in this mid level claimer. I expect Luan Machado and Ludlum to get the best Rogelio Miranda and Lil Habanero, but the isdie draw surely isn’t going to do Ludlum any favors. #7 Big Iron almost won in his first start at this level after the claim from Bernie Flint. It’s interesting that he was gelded after that runner-up finish on 12/15/18 and I believe he is head and shoulders above the others. His running style and the outside post are both positives as well.
Race Four: 7:42 post – MC 7500 5 F 4YO&Up
4-2-5-8
It’s hard to know what to expect from #5 Austin Ray tonight. He has been on the shelf for ten months and he was claimed from Wesley Ward for only $5000 about a year ago. All four of his career races have been at Turfway and he only needs to improve just s smidge to get it done tonight. The tote board should be your clue as to whether or not he is ready, but he looks to need a race before I can fully endorse. The only first time starter in this race is #2 Mamma Loves You, but he looks to be a horse that I will use in horizontals. Kenneth Miller doesn’t have a recent FTS winner, but the five posted workouts for him show some talent and he may be able to win at first asking. Mike Maker continues to drop #4 Shackled during this Turfway meet as he is making his third start since 12/7/18. This is probably a case of the horse not being as good as his $105K purchase price, but being good enough to win at this level. I think this is a clear case of “drop ‘til it pops” and I expect a win and a transfer to another barn tonight.
Race Five: 8:12 post – MC 1500 1 Mile 4YO&Up
3-6-9-8
The ML favorite is the odd-on #6 G Nineteen and probably deservedly-so. The problem with him is that he just looks like the kind of horse that doesn’t want to win. He has run two consecutive races that are probably good enough to win at the MC $30000 level, but the connections have dropped him down two classes. To me, that smells like a “for sale” sign has been hung around is neck and I will pass. #9 Crescent Warrior would normally be my play against the favorite in this race as he ran a decent race on 12/15/18 on Turfway’s all-weather surface, but I like #3 Juliano the most tonight. He gets Lasix for the first time as he ran without it in his first career start, but the thing I like most is that after breaking very immaturely, he didn’t throw in the towel at the Mountain. Luis Jurado has been 7/10 ITM during this meet and Luan Machado picks up the mount. If he likes the all-weather at all, he should be plenty good enough.
Race Six: 8:42 post – OC 40000n2X 1 1/16 Mile 4YO&Up
2-4-6-3
In a six horse field, it is tough to look past the ML favorite #4 Broken Promise as Ethan West has him in very good form right now coming in off of three straight wins, the last winning by daylight here at Turfway on 12/8/18. It’s tought to poke holes in his recent resume, but swallowing odds-on in a six horse field is something I don’t like to do unless the horse is much the best. I don’t think he is much the best in this spot, though he is the likeliest winner. I will take #2 Huntin Buddy to pull a small upset for Michael Estes. Huntin Buddy has won all three of his lifetime starts at Turfway and actually looks to be improving lately. The minor question is will he bounce a bit after his last effort. The all-weather surface is a little more forgiving than dirt in that regard, so I am going to back the Huntin Buddy in his fourth race of this cycle. Also, don’t sleep on the only filly in this race #6 Lesia Jane. She gets five pounds on the field and her 12/23/18 Turfway workout was smart.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – MSW 18.5K 1 Mile 3YO Fillies
12-5-6-8
Tommy Drury ships another over from Skylight, a move I love at Turfway. He’s hitting at 40% this meet, so I will take #12 New Roo on top. This race is extremely wide open on paper, so I can’t really begrudge anyone or trying to beat the co-ML favorite. In a race like this, I try to find a horse that has reason to improve and the best case I could find for an improving horse is #5 Lune Rousse. She gets Lasix for the first time in her third career race and showed that she didn’t mind the all-weather surface in her last race on 12/13/18. She was forwardly placed and weakened down the stretch but did hold on for third against similar. If the Lasix fixes the weakening, she has a shot in this spot and we could get a bit of a price on her as well. #6 Annagram throws the blinkers on tonight but I truly wonder if she is good enough in the first place. McKee does stay aboard again tonight, but Geoff Mulcahy hasn’t won at this Turfway meet, so I am against her on top.
Race Eight: 9:42 post – Claiming 5000n2x 6 F 4YO&Up F&M
9-4-1-3
It’s too bad #1 You’re the Reason drew the rail in this sprint because she looks like the most likely winner if she were drawn anywhere from the five-hole out. Alas, she didn’t, so we need to look elsewhere. #4 Rulelikecleopatra ran a race on 12/7/18 here at Turfway that was plenty good enough to win and it was against better. She didn’t run a step, but that was likely because she drew the dreaded rail. I look for her to return to better form tonight. That said, I am going to take a shot with #9 Pink for Me at a bit of a price. She had a horrible start in her last race and spotted the leader about eight lengths but she closed to a three length third place finish. That effort took some guts to pull off at this level as they normally just give up.