Turfway Park Friday February 22, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves smedium t-shirts, keto dieting, bourbon and bitters, and equipment changes. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Welcome to night racing at Turfway Park… Bomb’s Away.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – MC 5000 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
6-7-3-1
I can’t make a case for any of the boxcar horses in tonight’s opener, so I am basically giving you my opinion of logical horses that you will likely have on your own. I will play against the ML favorite #7 Queen Jeanne as she has been a money burner here at Turfway. #3 True Simplicity would love to get the lone lead in this route, but I believe #4 Safari Heat isn’t going to allow that scenario, so I am against True Simplicity as well. #6 Pebble Slinger has improved for owner/trainer Norris Davidson in her last three starts, all of them at Turfway. Davidson is 4/6 ITM in Florence and she keeps Euclyn Prentice in the irons; that’s enough for me.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000n2x 1 Mile 4YO&Up F&M
1-8-7-5
The entry of #1 Allie Grace and #1A Tiz Beauty is going to be very difficult to beat in this $5000 claimer. Allie Grace is somewhat of a Turfway Park specialist and Tiz Beauty is in the best form of all of these. They are a single for me in horizontals. I can make a case for #7 Conquest Sorceror as she has been okay in her last four Turfway starts, but I don’t know what to make of the recent seven week layoff and a move to an unknown trainer. #8 I Go It could certainly threaten the entry as she is a mile specialist with plenty of Turfway success, 5/7 ITM. The question I have is why can’t she keep a jockey? This is her third different pilot in the last three races. If she was any good at this level, we wouldn’t be seeing the musical chairs on her back.
Race Three: 7:13 post – Claiming 8000 6 1/2 F 4YO&Up
4-5-7-2
I am completely against the ML favorite #7 Dream Saturday and I will definitely try to beat him. He just may be the best in this field, but recently running a $4000 claimer at the Mountain doesn’t give me a lot of confidence. #5 Tee Tee has relished his return to Turfway after a five month freshening. Sure, he has been at lower levels than tonight, but he may have found his preferred surface and Cory Orm stays aboard. #4 Ambidextrous Alex should be a huge threat and he demonstrated that he can win at this level on New Year’s Day. However, he was super flat last out and that is of some concern to me. John McKee stays aboard again and the post just may be good enough for him to sit in the garden spot and pounce coming home.
Race Four: 7:42 post – Claiming 5000n1x 6 F 4YO&Up
8-7-2-4
The ML favorite #2 Double Deringer looks tough on paper, but the inside draw should greatly compromise his chances giving us an excellent opportunity to beat some chalk. #7 Run Run has been picking up checks since the beginning of the Turfway meet and I expect the same tonight. He has a chance to improve a little bit and get his picture taken, but he is a solid underneath play. #8 Feet’s Afire is making his 17th Turfway start tonight and his 44th on the all-weather surface. He gets a perfect post for this sprint and there should be just enough early pace for him to close in the stretch.
Race Five: 8:12 post – Claiming 5000n2y 5 ½ F 4YO&Up F&M
8-5-4-10
I think we can beat the ML favorite #6 Sistas Ready as her last outing was just horrible. That said, it was probably too bad to be true and her two previous Turfway races are likely good enough to win this race. Her drop in class is a huge concern for me as Charlie LoPresti doesn’t make this move very often. LoPresti is winless at Turfway this meet and I am going to play against him. #5 Don’t Tell Mom bit off more than she could chew against $8000 claimers in her last race and she came up empty. She worked nicely on 2/16/19 here at Turfway which tells me she might be fit enough to get it done tonight. #8 Dear Benny won in her first attempt on the all-weather surface earlier this month and she has every reason to improve tonight. Luan Machado stays aboard and the post draw is perfect for her early speed. I expect her to get the lead and try to walk the dog and I believe she is good enough to get it done with this pilot. Editor’s note: #6 Sistas Ready scratched.
Race Six: 8:42 post – Claiming 5000n2x 6 ½ F 4YO&Up
5-4-1-6
#1 Sharm has been a touch off his game lately and the rail is no place to be in a Turfway sprint, so I am going to toss. #4 Bud’s Bayonet draws a little better and keeps John McKee in the irons. He consistently picks up checks and always seems to run his race, but I have concerns about an apparent lack of pace in this race. There are no early runners in this affair, so the closers will all have their work cut out for themselves. #5 Twenty Gauge got cooked before the top of the stretch in his last outing, but I am going to draw a line through that effort. He was facing $7500 claimers earlier this meet and won against the negative rail bias two back. Being 7/8 ITM at Turfway is also eye-opening. I’m gonna fire a shot with this Twenty Gauge.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – Claiming 15000n2L 1 Mile 3YO&Up
7-5-1-6
I see this $15000 claimer as a two horse race as #5 Escalera and #7 Blue Mesa look head and shoulders above the others. They are the only runners to have run races good enough to win against par and this isn’t exactly a group of lightly raced horses. So… who do we choose? Cipiriano Contreras has quietly had a nice Turfway meet and he spots his horses well. Escalera has just missed at this level in his two Turfway starts and Rodney Prescott stays in the irons. There is a lot to like about Escalera. I am not in love with the last two starts for Blue Mesa but he has been facing better than the others. Tonight’s spot is much more realistic and I give the slight nod to him.
Race Eight: 9:42 post – MSW 18.5K 1 Mile 3YO Fillies
7-5-8-3
Scratches create a very short field of 3YOs for this MSW, which leaves us wondering which of these fillies will improve enough to win tonight. Honestly, I think any of them could win, but we are looking for improvement. #5 Lune Rousse has done nothing but improve since her debut and has every reason to do so again tonight. She’s taken a bit of time away from the track, but not enough to concern me. She could win, but I am against the jockey and her lack of recent support at the windows. #8 Lady Leah was claimed from the Ramseys in her last start and is being protected tonight by running in a MSW. Is this an act of confidence or future development. Kim Hammond is a solid trainer, but she is no Mike Maker and Angel Serpa rarely gives me goose bumps. #7 Birdie never got the lead in her debut, but she ran like she wanted it. Did that race take too much out of her at this stage of her career or will she improve off of it? She picked up a check in a full field in her debut and she does belong to Calumet Farm. That’s good enough for me.
Race Nine: 10:11 post – Claiming 7500n2L 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
8-1-2-9
Tonight’s closing race is easily the most wide-open of the card and the full field makes this a delicious betting race. I can’t argue with #6 Bella Kristina as the ML favorite, but I don’t see her as a stand-out. She has been picking up Turfway checks and even broke her maiden here. That said, it was against $5000 MC, so that doesn’t instill a ton of confidence. #9 Lake City just broke her maiden against $7500 MC in her last outing on 1/24/19. She ran pretty well in her last four races at Turfway and John McKee stays aboard even though he surely had the choice of mounts tonight. #11 War Eagle’s Love has had some abysmal running lines over her career, but her connections have been running her against far better than anything she faces tonight. She woke up a bit last out and got third against a pretty good Fun Sucker and tonight’s favorite. I think she can reverse the results of the 2/1/19 race and win tonight. Yes, I see the jockey, but I think he gets his second win of the meet in this spot.