Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves cheap night racing, cheap bourbon, cheap women, sarcasm, and a good cuddle. He hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge.
Let’s throw some darts at Turfway Park.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – Claiming 5000n1x 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
5-2-4-7
On paper, this looks to be an evenly matched low-level claiming race. #2 Bela Menina has run well over the Turfway surface and she won’t need to improve much off of her last effort to win tonight. That said, I don’t want her as she is likely to be the favorite. If #4 Allie Grace returns to her earlier 2018 Turfway form, she might be able to sit the perfect trip behind the projected early pace. I give her a shot. #5 Sweet Rock ran well enough in her 12/5/18 Turfway effort to win at longer odds than we will get tonight. I like Calderon wheeling her back on nine days rest. It shows me that she is fit and he has confidence in her.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000n1y 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
3-1-5-9
#1 Prom Theme ran well at this level in her last start here at Turfway, but she ran into a horse nobody was passing on 11/30/18. This group looks a little weaker than the last bunch, but I think she remains in second. #5 Love the Power has been off a couple of months after running a complete clunker back in September. Nocero usually gets them to run well off the bench and she has definitely been facing better. She has also run well at Turfway. If she fires to the front, it is going to take some doing to run her down. #3 Don’t Tell Mom set the pace back in her 11/30/18 Turfway effort before faltering down the lane. She’s shaving a little distance and I like the speed and fade angle combined with her three previous wins over the track. I will take her at a price.
Race Three: 7:13 post – Claiming 5000b 6 F 3YO&Up
3-8-5-6
#5 Northern Ranger and #3 Trappe Valley squared off against each other here at Turfway back on 12/1/18. In fact six of these runners were in the same race with Northern Ranger getting the best of those entered tonight. The winner from that race isn’t here tonight, so Northern Ranger certainly makes a ton of sense. Trappe Valley was forced wide coming home and hung in the lane, so I am going to use him on top. Of the new shooters, #8 Victor Jara looks like the biggest threat. I have some questions about his recent form and owner/trainer doesn’t usually fare well off the bench at 4%. That said, if he runs back to his early 2018 Turfway form, he’s the winner. I am going to give him a race and let him beat me tonight.
Race Four: 7:42 post – MC 5000 1 Mile 3YO&Up
8-2-6-1
This MC5000 looks to have come up super light and I just can’t get past the #8 Bourbon Shotte. Sure he has a ton of questions, but he has certainly been consistent and he split the field here at Turfway against better in his last effort. The only other runner I could use to beat the favorite is #2 Letitgo, but he is sure to be the second favorite, so I don’t really see the point of getting cute.
Race Five: 8:12 post – Claiming 5000n2L 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
9-2-5-6
In another race full of horses with a ton of questions, I landed on #9 Da Mrs. She ran her career-best race in her last effort, so I suppose it’s possible she woke up a bit on the all-weather surface. The coupled entry is 2/35 lifetime. Toss. #2 Carolina Reaper is a hard-knocker that figures, but he has run four absolute clunkers on all-weather. The #3, #4, #7, #8, and #10 all look to be off form. #5 Jr’s Joy and #6 Only Praise Me wouldn’t shock me, but I just can’t endorse. So, I landed on Da Mrs., but I certainly don’t think we will get the ML 4/1 in this spot. If we do, I will be firing. If any of these show extra steam on the tote, I would use them as it won’t take much to cross the line first in this race.
Race Six: 8:42 post – Claiming 10000 1 Mile 3YO&Up
6-1-3-4
I can honestly make a case for every one of these runners except for #2 Got the Notion, so you might want to pound him at the windows. The entry is sure to be as dangerous as the ML odds project and #1 Big Kick looks to have the perfect running style for Turfway. That said, he has been off for over six months and I usually won’t bet the favorite with that long of a lay-off, especially when others make perfect sense. #3 Money Talker looks to be the most consistent runner and he definitely has the most all-weather experience, though not at Turfway. He is 9YO and the only one entered for $8000 tonight, so I’ll take a stand against him. #6 Due to His Charm has the most positive angles and could surprise the others. Thomas Van Berg claimed him last out at Churchill Downs and moves him up the ladder a bit on a surface where he has run rather well. He has won his last two races, both on a better circuit, and he is running his fourth race of this cycle since returning from a small break. I hope I get his 6/1 ML price.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – OC 25000n1x 6 ½ F 3YO&Up
2-8-9-10
#8 The Curt Fox has quite a bit of all-weather races in his running lines and he is 3/4 here at Turfway. It’s been a while since he has been here, but his career best race was run here in Florence. His last three races wouldn’t win tonight, but his 12/6 Turfway workout tells me he is the same horse from last year. #9 Fleet Eagle should get the chance to take them gate to wire if he can clear the field from his post. I just don’t think he’ll be quite good enough to pull off the win. #2 Aqua Frio could have this one all to himself down the lane. He is 4/5 on all-weather, a couple of stakes races in his running lines, a couple of respectable Turfway workouts, and a positive trainer move since his last race.
Race Eight: 9:42 post – MC 7500 6 ½ F 3YO&Up
11-9-10-1#11 Wicked Gem has yet to figure it all out on the track, but all signs point to a win tonight. He catches a pretty light crowd of inexperienced all-weather runners tonight, of which he is one. He has been facing MUCH better since his debut and he gets Luan Machado in the irons. In addition, Kellyn Gorder is putting the blinkers on for the first time and dropping him waaaaaaaaay down the claiming ladder. Sure, he has never been in the money in his seven career races, and I am normally against these types of horses, but there doesn’t appear to be any monsters lurking tonight. He could be the type that never figures it out, but all the intangibles tell me that he could win this one for fun.