Early in the Turfway meet, we’re noticing increased field size, large payoffs, and better horses filling each race compared to last season. There are several full fields again on tonight’s eight race program. Hopefully, there will be more opportunities for players to score big.
Race 1: $15,000 NW3L Claiming, F/M, 1 Mile and 1/16 My Picks: 1-9-3
Mike Maker had a rough opening week here, however, he could rebound as he trains the most likely winner in Unapologetic Me (1). Her two turn form on turf is better than what most of these have shown. Corrales is riding very well so far, and he should be able to carve out a strong ground saving trip. Her one try on synthetic wasn’t great, but it came in stakes company on the polytrack surface, which, I think you can excuse. Take Charge Cacky (9) might have to gun it from the outside post, as she runs better on near the front end. She was a two time winner at the meet last year. Angel of Verdun (3) is moving up in class, but she is improving and getting into better form. If she can build off her last, she could add some value underneath.
Race 2: $5,000 Maiden Claiming, F/M, 1 Mile: My Picks: 9-6-5
There are some suspect droppers and some horses that have been languishing at this level for a bit. I’ll try Smiling Grace (9) in here, as she has a little more upside than most. She’s second off the layoff, after returning with a dull effort on the dirt at Indiana Grand. Her Tapeta form at Golden Gate would make her competitive at this level. She is stretching out for the first time, so there needs to be a little value on her. Prado Amore (6) drops to the bottom for Romans after finishing 8th for the third consecutive race while facing better on the dirt. She’s sired by Paddy O’Prado, so there’s hope she’ll get better at two turns on the synthetic. St. Louise (5) is 0-15, but she tries hard and just missed in the only race she ran at this level. She makes sense underneath, and despite her losing record, I might be compelled to include her on my horizontal tickets as well, since there isn’t a lot of talent here.
Race 3: $30,000-$20,000 NW2L Claiming, 1 Mile: My Picks: 4-1-10
Alphalfa (4) has run three consecutive strong races on the Tapeta course at Presque Isle, while facing deeper fields. He’s been running well in sprints, but he can get the mile and he should be forwardly placed, which wasn’t a bad thing last week. Can’tbetemall (1) was excluded from an easier spot last week as an also-eligible, but gets in here and draws the rail. He made a middle move into a slow pace, while breaking from a wide post last time. He drops and should benefit from a ground saving trip in a wide open affair. Surf and Turf (10) has the best speed figures off the group, but they are all coming on turf. If that form translates, to the synthetic, he’s the one to beat.
Race 4: $50,000 Optional Claiming/NW1X Allowance, 2yoF, 1 Mile: My Picks: 2-10-9
This is a tough optional claiming/allowance spot for two year old fillies. My plan is to play against the Wesley Ward filly, Clan Cara (6), who was a visually impressive maiden winner on debut at Belterra. However, I think the race came back on the slow side, and I think this filly will be overbet. Mike Trombetta does very well with his horses that he runs over synthetic surfaces, and he takes over the training of Do You Love Me (2). She broke her maiden at this distance last time out after two near misses while sprinting. Being sired by English Channel out of a Tiznow mare, she should continue to improve at two turns. Stellar Grace (10) draws the outside, but she’s comfortable coming from off the pace, so it shouldn’t affect her too much. She’s improved in every start, finishing a close 4th in the Sorority in the grass at 1 Mile two starts back. She met a fast and deeper field at the flat mile last out on the dirt. If she likes the course, she’s a major player. Battle Bling (9) has run well in two starts on the dirt at Indiana, and may be headed with Asmussen to Texas or Arkansas next month. She debuted on the grass against a next out stakes winner at Kentucky Downs prior to her two dirt races. She’s worth a look here.
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 2yo, 6 Furlongs: My Picks: 2-12-7
This is a tough maiden special weight to figure out here. Two of the horses with racing experience seem to have a distinct advantage over the others. However, I’ll try a firster that looks well meant. He’s In Charge (2) was working well at Woodbine, and seemed primed to make his debut there before the end of the meet. However, when their meet ended early, Turfway seemed to be the logical plan B. He’s had one work over the local course and has a nice looking pedigree. He’s by Candy Ride, whose horses run on any surface. He gets speed and precocity from his dam, Brazen Persuasion, who won the Grade 3 Schuylerville at two. Skip Tewmey (12) looks very logical, after rallying strongly to finish second on the turf in his debut. He stretches out to 6 Furlongs, and makes a lot of sense if his form translates to synthetic. The Predicament (7) has never been off the board in five tries, including three straight races on Tapeta at Presque Isle. He cuts back from two turn racing, and should have a stamina edge over many of these.
Race 6: $12,500-$10,500 Claiming, 6 and ½ Furlongs: My Picks: 6-1-3
This is another tricky puzzle of a race as six of the twelve horses in the body of the field are synthetic specialists that boast an on the board percentage of 50% or higher. Three of the twelve have a winning percentage of over 50% on synthetic tracks. Captain Mad Jack (6) ships in from Presque Isle and has hit the board in 16 of 19 tries on synthetic, winning four of them. He should get a favorable pace scenario to close into here as there are several that have early speed, and I’m not sure they all want that extra half furlong here. Red Cat (1) drops in here from allowance company, and also ships in from Presque Isle. He moves to the barn of Tim Girten, who has won with 36% of his new acquisitions over the last two years. He could wake up while cutting back in distance. Ed’s Rocket (3) is the fastest of the early speed horses in here and he boasts 7 wins in 13 tries on synthetic tracks, however all of those races have been on the Polytrack. I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see this guy wire this field, but only one of his last seven tries would be good enough to win here. He drops in class and will likely be a short price. I wouldn’t exclude him from your tickets, but I do think he’s vulnerable.
Race 7: Optional $25,000 Claiming/NW1X, 1 Mile and 1/4: My Picks: 5-10-12
The late pick 4 sequence doesn’t get any easier with this 10 Furlong contest. There are two horses, Jumper (7) and Bama Breeze (12), that figure to take the bulk of the wagering here. However, there are question marks about both as Jumper ran one race on synthetic, which was a total dud, and Bama Breeze, has never run on synthetic and moves into an unknown barn off a three month layoff. I think Tap The Mojo (5) is the most likely horse to upset the apple cart here. Two of his better races in his career came on the Tapeta at Woodbine last winter, so we know he can run well in the cold weather on this surface. It’s taken him a little time to get back in to good form, but he is trending upward. With Tapit as his sire, the 10 Furlongs is not a concern. Blackline (10) moves into the Tim Girten barn, and has won on the synthetic before. He struggled two back against similar, but had a very wide trip as an excuse. The added distance and the long run into the first turn should be beneficial, as he has some strong races on the grass last winter that would make him very competitive here, if he can get back there. Bama Breeze (12) does move to the Dermot Littelfield barn, and I’m not sure what the story is there. However, he gets major class relief today, after facing the likes of Domestic Spending, Gufo, Smooth Like Strait, and Field Pass in his last several grass races. He’s worked well on the synthetic, and horses that have competed at Kentucky Downs have done very well in the early stages of this meet. He’s the most likely winner, but he’s not a lock.
Race 8: $30,000 Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile: My Picks: 8-6-5
There are plenty of options in the night cap to consider. Poppy’s Prize (8), ran his best start to date last out on the main track at Keeneland at this level. There are some turf influences on the dam side of the pedigree, so there’s an expectation that his form could translate to the synthetic. Concrete Charlie (6) is an interesting horse at big number here that might be worthy of a look in the vertical exotics. He was wide in both turns on debut on the grass at Gulfstream, but his effort wasn’t awful for his first try. He had trouble at the break and faltered when running in an off the turf race in his second start. He’s been away since July and makes his start for the Barkley barn, which has had some success with horses off the shelf at a price. Decision Maker (5) has never hit the board in 11 starts, which is never something you want to see from a 4-1 shot. However, he fits at this level and has run his best races on grass. He worked well here last week, which is an encouraging sign.