Turfway Park Friday December 28, 2018
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves puppies, popcorn, naps, and beating chalk. He hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge.
Let’s play some roulette at Turfway Park.
Happy New Year, everyone!
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – MC 7500 6F 2YO Fillies
6-5-3-7
We start the card with our nightly version of entropy with yet another MC for 2YOs. As you know, anything can happen in these races, but this race looks to be all about the favorites. #5 Kimberley Dream and #6 Foggy Kitten as both have enough early speed to turn this race into a bit of a match race. I prefer Foggy Kitten off of her last race against much tougher where she made the lead and faltered down the stretch. The cutback in distance should help her immensely tonight. If you want to take a shot at upsetting the opener, I think you could do a lot worse than #3 Vickie’s Ransome. Her 11/17/18 workout from the gate teases some talent
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 8000 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
8-4-2-5
#2 Knockout Girl is entered by trainer Tom Drury who normally doesn’t bring them over from Skylight unless he thinks they are loaded. She has been off for over a year, but you have to respect a trainer that wins at 44% at Turfway. I expect some improvement from #4 Holy Cookie after she was caught on a wide trip on 12/13/18 here at Turfway. She spotted the field about ten lengths that night before she closed down the lane for second. #8 Mileva was claimed out of her last race on 11/29/18 where she fired to the lead after a brief lay-off. I expect her to be a little more reserved tonight and the 12/22/18 work here at Turfway tells me she is fit.
Race Three: 7:13 post – Claiming 5000n1x 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
11-1-8-7
#8 Conquest Sorceror nearly got it done as the favorite against similar two weeks ago here at Turfway as she just barely lost at the wire. She shortens up a bit tonight and you have to use and respect her. #1 Sweet Rock faced the #8 in that race, but she was off slow and gave herself too much to do. I expect her to reverse the score against the #8 tonight. That said, I like #11 Dancing Magician in this spot. She pressed the pace and was a little short in her first start back from a three month lay-off and I ecpect her to be a little more fit in her second race back. If she improves at all, she should take these.
Race Four: 7:42 post – Claiming 15000n3L 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
5-4-3-7
#3 Tempestuous Amy looks the part, but she might not like the all-weather surface. Since she is the ML favorite, I am going to play against her. #4 Kynsika showed some late kick in a winning effort against weaker here at Turfway on 11/29/18. I don’t think she is going to get enough pace to run into tonight and I expect her to be just short even though she appears to be in good form. #5 Dream Fever is stretching out a bit tonight in her second start for Cipriano Contreras. He is dropping her a bit in class and posts gaudy numbers with his second time starters. If she likes the all-weather surface at all, she should get her picture taken.
Race Five: 8:12 post – Prairie Bayou Stakes 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up
3-4-8-11
This year’s Prairie Bayou came up a little salty with #3 Fast and Accurate and #4 Camelot Kitten placed as deserving co-favorites on the ML. Camelot Kitten is certainly the more accomplished of the Mike Maker runners, but I prefer Fast and Accurate tonight. He has more experience over the all-weather surface and I prefer his running style over the late closing Camelot Kitten. You need to include both on your horizontal tickets. Last year’s runaway winner of the Prairie Bayou #8 Royal Son is not without a chance, but he has been off for seven months and I would have liked to have seen a race or two before taking on the Maker runners. If you would like to take a shot against the favorites, I endorse #11 Midnight Pleasure for that role. He has never tried the the all-weather, but he appears to be in good form and Mick Ruis wouldn’t have placed him in this spot if he didn’t have a shot.
Race Six: 8:42 post – MC 5000 1 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
8-7-2-3
I can’t recall ever seeing a MC race that was this bad. #7 Queen Jeanne will certainly be the favorite as she is the most consistent runner in the race, but you surely can’t be thrilled about taking a horse like this at odds-on. We might as well take a stab against the favorite as any of these could win if they ever figured out how to run. I’ll go with #8 Discreesita as she has flashed some morning talent recently, including one from the gate on 10/18/18, and she has been on the all-weather twice. I have great concerns over the fact she stopped running in her last two races, both on this surface, but I am hoping she gets brave on the front end.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – Allowance 18500n2L 6 F 3YO&Up
4-1-3-8
#4 Welles Crowther proved he could run on the all-weather in his last race by crossing the wire first on 12/7/18. Sure, he got disqualified to second for coming out in the lane, but he led the entire trip. Laura Wohlers shortens him up tonight and I will swallow the chalk by backing him as I believe him to be much the best. I would typically like the #1 Stormcoast against these, but the track has not been favorable to rail runners in sprints. If he drew further outside, I could endorse, but not tonight.
Race Eight: 9:42 post – Claiming 5000n3L 6 ½ F 3YO&Up
12-7-11-3
#7 Brother Cesare looks super tough in this claiming race as his recent efforts have been good enough to win at this level. I can’t knock anyone who plays him, but this is a low-level claiming race, so we can certainly find better options to score. You have to forgive a lot to use #3 Dance Even, but he did run his career-best race here at Turfway as a 2YO, so he may just relish the surface. He hasn’t been much lately, but he has been kept in training, so that’s something. I’ll take my chances with #12 Kowboy Posse at a bit of a price. He has some all-weather experience, though not that great, and he was plenty good enough this summer to win at this level. I like the fact he is a first time gelding and his December 2018 Turfway workouts are a signal that he may be our winner. I endorse.