Saturday December 15th at Turfway Park
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Race 1: Clm 5000, One mile on the Polytrack, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 6:15 PM EDT.
Selections: 8-1-6
(8) I Got It: Record at this track (4-2-1-0) must be respected and she should appreciate return to racing on the Polytrack especially as Short has been firing at 23% rate with runners racing on all weather surfaces. Over last week Mojica has been hot (18-7-1-3) and currently is amongst the top jockeys at Turfway with 27% win rate in meet thus far.
(1) One Thirty One: Although her recent efforts at Mahoning Valley over dirt have not been great, if she can return to the form that she displayed earlier in the year over the all weather track at Presque Isle then she certainly could be dangerous here. The 83 Bris Speed Rating (BSR) that she has posted in the past at today’s distance is the fastest amongst the assembled field.
(6) Too Cool: Prevailed to win by a neck at this distance at this track in most recent start back on November 29th; she has finished in the money in 12 of her 25 attempts at one mile. Miller currently holds 27% win rate not only with runners that are claim repeaters but also with runners that won their last race.
Race 2: MC 15000, 1 1/16 miles on the Polytrack, For Maidens, Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 6:44 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-7-9
(5) Wicked Gem: Really just hoping here that the stretchout in distance, huge drop in class along with the switch to Machado riding wakes something up in this son of Gemologist. Gorder has been hitting at a 24% rate with runners that are racing at a route distance after trying sprints in their last two starts.
(7) Grandpa Frank: This son of Creative Cause has shown vestiges of talent in the past so perhaps a return to routing over a mile on the Polytrack will be the ticket for breaking his maiden. Hammond has been hitting at a 22% rate with runners racing on all weather tracks while Prescott has been quite good over the past seven days (16-5-2-2).
(9) Auld Cup: Willing to give this son of Giant’s Causeway another shot as he has finished in the money in six of his nine starts and his form when racing at Belterra Park actually was fairly solid. A drop in class today should help his chances of hitting the board and Kahles has been winning at a 30% rate with runners making the transition from maiden to maiden claiming races.
Race 3: Clm 7500n3L, One mile on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 7:13 PM EDT.
Selections: 2-9-7
(2) Runmaliburun: This son of Malibu Moon has shown decent early speed in the past so look for him to be forwardly placed, likely in a stalking role, early on. Last effort over dirt at Indiana Grand wasn’t terrible and he should appreciate the slight cutback in distance today. Most recent work over this track was incredibly sharp and thus he appears to be in good form coming into this race.
(9) Earle Station: Will need to improve off of most recent effort at this track and distance in order to have a chance at winning tonight. Running style should have him racing in contention throughout race and Hammond boasts respectable 22% win rate with runners racing on all weather surfaces; moreover, Prescott who has been fairly hot as of this last week remains onboard which is always a good sign.
(7) I’m a Lucky Guy: Recent form against tougher rivals at Churchill Downs in last two races has been quite respectable and a repeat of those efforts should be good enough to hit the board tonight. Possesses very good closing speed and will likely be flying down the stretch late. Slight drop in class should help chances as well.
Race 4: Clm 5000, Six furlongs on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 7:42 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-3-6
(5) Princetonian: In most recent start, distance was likely too short for him but he did show mild closing effort; a stretchout to six furlongs tonight helps his chances. His form when racing at this distance and class level at Presque Isle earlier this year was in fact quite good and a return to those efforts makes his a major contender in this race. Good to see McKee (18% win rate in sprints this year) remain aboard for Santangelo (24% win rate with runners racing over all weather surfaces).
(3) Monday Confession: His form when sprinting (especially at this distance) back in the summer at Canterbury was quite good, even against tougher foes. A return to that form tonight makes him a logical contender. Cook boasts 25% win rate when transitioning runners from dirt to all weather surfaces.
(6) Yield to Honor: Back in the summer, this horse had displayed excellent early speed when sprinting and in fact won several races in gate to wire fashion. While he projects to be the early leader once again, for some reason he does not really take well to the Polytrack at Turfway and thus should be expected to hold on only for a minor award in this race.
Race 5: Clm 15000n2L, Six and one half furlongs on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 8:12 PM EDT.
Selections: 8-1-7
(8) Da Bullet: Taking a shot here (no pun intended) with this son of Fast Bullet who was incredibly impressive when last seen sprinting five furlongs at Belterra Park back in August and then winning by daylight. Possesses some of the best early speed figures amongst this field, which is loaded with early speed type runners, thus look for him to be forwardly placed either on or near the early lead. Most recent work was quite sharp and he appears to be in good form coming into this race despite the long layoff. Greenhill has been hitting at an 18% rate when transitioning runners from dirt to all weather surfaces.
(1) Ludlum: A multitude of changes could be working in this one’s favor after coming up empty against tougher foes in his most recent start at this track; this son of Stephen Got Even drops in class tonight, adds blinkers again, draws a potential ground-saving rail position, and gets a major upgrade in the jockey department. His most recent work was incredibly quick and Leonard could have this one primed to fire off a huge effort tonight.
(7) Gambler’s Choice: This son of Morning Line has excellent early speed and figures to be the main contender to our top selection for the initial lead. A drop in class today should help his chances of hitting the board although be wary that this trainer is currently winless with runners racing on all weather tracks and Gambler’s Choice has yet to test the Polytrack at Turfway.
Race 6: OC 50000b, Six furlongs on the Polytrack, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 8:42 PM EDT.
Selections: 4-1-6
(4) Land Battle: This son of Istan was ultra-impressive two weeks ago here in his first start for Hammond. He has excellent tactical speed and thus should be able to rate under Machado behind what projects to be a fairly fast initial pace. He has yet to miss hitting the board in eight tries at this distance and I fully expect another solid effort from him tonight. Over the past three years, Hammond has been firing at a 27% rate with runners that won their last race.
(1) Torazo: If there is any horse in this field that has the ability to upset our top selection, if might be this one. He has been battle tested racing against multiple levels of optional claiming foes and although this race is a step up in class from his most recent effort, he appears to be up for the challenge. He absolutely loves running at this track as he has finished in the money in five of his six lifetime starts over it, including three wins. His most recent work was very sharp and it is good to see Prescott (16-5-2-2 over the last seven days) remain aboard.
(6) Lanier: Sprinting might not be his forte, but it’s quite likely that Lanier will show up tonight and give a good account of himself. He has shown very good early speed when routing over turf earlier this year and thus will likely be involved in dictating the pace scenario early on. It is always a good sign when the leading rider at Turfway (Mojica) signs on to ride.
Race 7: MC 15000, Six and a half furlongs on the Polytrack, For Maidens, Two Years Old. Post Time: 9:12 PM EDT.
Selections: 1-2
(1) Quite a Bit: Someone has to win this race, right? Although this son of Swagger Jack has not been seen since a third place finish at the beginning of October at Indiana Grand, he did run fairly evenly in that effort, so perhaps he can move forward tonight. Miller hits at 16% rate with runners returning to racing following layoffs of 46-90 days and the jockey upgrade to Machado (16% win rate when sprinting this year) is an encouraging sign.
(2) Raf: Mike Maker sends out this son of Shackleford for Zayat Stables tonight and hopefully this effort is much better than his last two. The huge drop in class should help his chances tonight and Maker has been doing very well with runners transitioning from maiden to maiden claiming races (28% win rate over the past three years). The 63 BSR that Raf posted in his last start is actually the highest last out speed figure amongst the entire field so if he can improve upon that figure then he warrants a long look as a solid contender to hit the board.
Race 8: Clm 7500n2L, Five and a half furlongs on the Polytrack, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 9:42 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-7-8
(5) Lady Rubi: Although she has only won one of seventeen lifetime starts, her most recent effort over five furlongs here back on November 28th was solid enough and she appears to be the best amongst what is a fairly weak field. The drop in class along with her pace-stalking running style should help her chances of hitting the board and possibly even winning tonight.
(7) Templesis: This daughter of Temple City showed some promise exiting the same race as our top selection in which she finished fifth, beaten only by two lengths. Earlier in the year, she showed good form when racing at this distance over the Polytrack at Arlington Park and if she can find a way to return to those efforts then she certainly looms a contender tonight. It is encouraging to see McKee (18% win rate in sprints this year) remain onboard. (8) Bel Canto: The 74 BSR that this daughter of Awesome Again posted when sprinting five furlongs against tougher company at Belterra Park back in September actually is the highest last out speed figure amongst the entire field. Additionally, she has very good early speed and projects to be on or near the front at least initially. She makes a decent drop in class tonight and Hale has been firing at a 60% rate with a $3.64 R.O.I. with runners dropping two or more class levels. However, do keep in mind that she has yet to even hit the board in any of her three lifetime starts at Turfway.